CNN had declared at 9 that it's exit polls showed it at just 52 percent to 48 percent.
This turned out not to exactly be prophetic. You know who does look pretty prophetic? Benchmark politics who has stated all along she would win about 57-43.
Early in the night, CNN's numbers already looked absurd:
"Clinton so far is ahead 60-40 in majority white precincts of New York City. This does not look like a good night for Sanders."
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/722596411544625153
"The extent that Sanders underperformed Teachout in affluent white liberal areas is really striking. He's holding up in working class Upstate."
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/722601534241030144
Here is Benchmark-who, again, correctly predicted the margin-right now it's about 57-43, with 90 percent in.
"Clinton may net +49 delegates because of congressional district level victor"
What happened to CNN?
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/722602575795658752
"Exit polls overweighted Buffalo."
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/722602279090520064
Harry Enten:
"If you want an idea of why the exit polls were off on the Democratic side, look no further than the 15th district. The 15th, which is the most Hispanic in the state, is favoring Clinton by over 40 percentage points. The exit poll had Clinton winning Hispanics statewide by 18 percentage points."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-york-primary-presidential-election-2016/?ex_cid=538twitter
Overall, this is a very important win for Hillary. It's a relief that CNN was wrong. If that had held up, while it wouldn't have gotten Bernie anywhere closer on math-in truth it would still have been further away-he could still have played the momentum game.
But what happened here tonight, stops that narrative cold. A number of talking points of Bernie's were debunked, including the idea that the more people get to know him, the better he does. Not in NY, that's not the case. Since late March-just under a month ago-the polls have all consistently shown her up by double digits and tonight was right in line with the polling averages.
It again shows he can't win in a big, diverse primary. As for the idea that the race is tied based on national polls, this was debunked again. The state results just aren't showing this.
"What looks like a big loss to Clinton in New York today isn’t particularly encouraging for that storyline, but SurveyMonkey includes voters who lean Democratic, while only registered Democrats may vote in New York’s Democratic primary. Still, Sanders can’t just be close to Clinton to win the nomination; he has to beat her in most remaining states, most by big margins — especially after tonight."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-york-primary-presidential-election-2016/?ex_cid=538twitter
This is why these polls don't tell us much: the include independents. Among Democrats she is winning in landslide numbers.
I've heard Berners like Ryan Cooper and Seth Abramson claim that people of color now support the Bern. In NY, he lost AAs 75-25 and the Latino vote, 63-37. They split the white vote. So this hardly shows that he is tightening the race.
Humorously, Tad Devine on MSNBC made a totally unconvincing attempt to explain how Bernie still wins the nomination. Supposedly they are going to give it to Bernie even though he loses in both pledged delegates and votes by citing general election polls and getting the super delegates to vote his way.
http://www.vox.com/2016/4/19/11465392/bernie-sanders-superdelegates?utm_campaign=ezraklein&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
Meanwhile, Bernie's only Senate friend, Jeff Merkle, said this isn't going to happen.
"This seems newish for now from @taddevine, via AP: campaign will see how it does in Penn, Md, Del, RI and CT and then "assess where we are."
https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/722622510127308803?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
This turned out not to exactly be prophetic. You know who does look pretty prophetic? Benchmark politics who has stated all along she would win about 57-43.
Early in the night, CNN's numbers already looked absurd:
"Clinton so far is ahead 60-40 in majority white precincts of New York City. This does not look like a good night for Sanders."
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/722596411544625153
"The extent that Sanders underperformed Teachout in affluent white liberal areas is really striking. He's holding up in working class Upstate."
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/722601534241030144
Here is Benchmark-who, again, correctly predicted the margin-right now it's about 57-43, with 90 percent in.
"Clinton may net +49 delegates because of congressional district level victor"
What happened to CNN?
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/722602575795658752
"Exit polls overweighted Buffalo."
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/722602279090520064
Harry Enten:
"If you want an idea of why the exit polls were off on the Democratic side, look no further than the 15th district. The 15th, which is the most Hispanic in the state, is favoring Clinton by over 40 percentage points. The exit poll had Clinton winning Hispanics statewide by 18 percentage points."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-york-primary-presidential-election-2016/?ex_cid=538twitter
Overall, this is a very important win for Hillary. It's a relief that CNN was wrong. If that had held up, while it wouldn't have gotten Bernie anywhere closer on math-in truth it would still have been further away-he could still have played the momentum game.
But what happened here tonight, stops that narrative cold. A number of talking points of Bernie's were debunked, including the idea that the more people get to know him, the better he does. Not in NY, that's not the case. Since late March-just under a month ago-the polls have all consistently shown her up by double digits and tonight was right in line with the polling averages.
It again shows he can't win in a big, diverse primary. As for the idea that the race is tied based on national polls, this was debunked again. The state results just aren't showing this.
"What looks like a big loss to Clinton in New York today isn’t particularly encouraging for that storyline, but SurveyMonkey includes voters who lean Democratic, while only registered Democrats may vote in New York’s Democratic primary. Still, Sanders can’t just be close to Clinton to win the nomination; he has to beat her in most remaining states, most by big margins — especially after tonight."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-york-primary-presidential-election-2016/?ex_cid=538twitter
This is why these polls don't tell us much: the include independents. Among Democrats she is winning in landslide numbers.
I've heard Berners like Ryan Cooper and Seth Abramson claim that people of color now support the Bern. In NY, he lost AAs 75-25 and the Latino vote, 63-37. They split the white vote. So this hardly shows that he is tightening the race.
Humorously, Tad Devine on MSNBC made a totally unconvincing attempt to explain how Bernie still wins the nomination. Supposedly they are going to give it to Bernie even though he loses in both pledged delegates and votes by citing general election polls and getting the super delegates to vote his way.
http://www.vox.com/2016/4/19/11465392/bernie-sanders-superdelegates?utm_campaign=ezraklein&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
Meanwhile, Bernie's only Senate friend, Jeff Merkle, said this isn't going to happen.
Chuck Todd made the point tonight that if Bernie hopes to have any kind of impact in at the convention or in the platform he might be smart to move off such harshly negative attacks. But tonight he was as negative as ever.
If so, then Hillary will rightly say, good riddance.
She got a good shot at him tonight in her victory speech by pointing out she's won every region of the country. She also pointed out that, she alone, has 10 million votes.
Jamil Smith on Bernie going on:
"He has enough money to do so, for one. But after tonight, the rationale gets thinner, certainly."
https://twitter.com/JamilSmith/status/722612814884560896
If so, then Hillary will rightly say, good riddance.
She got a good shot at him tonight in her victory speech by pointing out she's won every region of the country. She also pointed out that, she alone, has 10 million votes.
Jamil Smith on Bernie going on:
"He has enough money to do so, for one. But after tonight, the rationale gets thinner, certainly."
https://twitter.com/JamilSmith/status/722612814884560896
Erin Matson:
"Seems timely to recall she was shoved out in '08 while winning the popular vote but Bernie has less and no one is telling him to do that."
https://twitter.com/erintothemax/status/722611887565860864
Liz Goodwin:
"Bernie's speech was one of his most combative to Hillary yet; Hillary talking as if she's the nominee."
https://twitter.com/lizcgoodwin/status/722611898240397313
The election betting odds for the first time give Hillary a 72 percent chance of being next POTUS.
https://electionbettingodds.com/
Trump is at 15 percent, Cruz is at under 5 percent, Bernie is under 2 percent.
"Seems timely to recall she was shoved out in '08 while winning the popular vote but Bernie has less and no one is telling him to do that."
https://twitter.com/erintothemax/status/722611887565860864
Liz Goodwin:
"Bernie's speech was one of his most combative to Hillary yet; Hillary talking as if she's the nominee."
https://twitter.com/lizcgoodwin/status/722611898240397313
The election betting odds for the first time give Hillary a 72 percent chance of being next POTUS.
https://electionbettingodds.com/
Trump is at 15 percent, Cruz is at under 5 percent, Bernie is under 2 percent.
UPDATE: Tad Devine, who usually seems a little more reality based than Jeff Weaver said this as tweeted by Maggie Haberman of the NY Times:
https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/722622510127308803?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Devine understands the Democratic primary system pretty well-as he is one of its major architects-SDs, etc.
No comments:
Post a Comment