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Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Ted Cruz's NY Value is Zero

As Don Corleone would say, NY said to Ted Cruz last night: my offer to you is nothing. You get nothing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPmTp9up26w

NY values. There's one Cruz wants back. It became such a powerful meme, that even Hillary Clinton was using it at her own rallies. NY values says it all. The real New Yorkers are clear after last night.

Both Trump and Hillary Clinton showed they know how to campaign here.

"New York is supposed to be a magical city that extracts “authenticity” out of its presidential candidates – you know, the rubes who tote wallets in back pockets, can’t quite swipe a MetroCard, or stand there like flap-hatted Vermont tourists fishing around for subway tokens left over from their last trip to the Big City in 1960."

"The 2016 primary here – for all its hype - provided few new insights into the character of the candidates – but it did clarify both the Republican and Democratic races, delivering the expected victories to the expected hometown front-runners, Donald Trump and, especially Hillary Clinton."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/clinton-trump-new-york-off-message-222182#ixzz46NI7pGhZ 


So as to authentic New Yorkers: Hillary and Trump showed their the real deal. Bernie was born here, but 1960 was a long time ago. He doesn't understand retail politics. 

"The sites of Sanders' three closing mega-rallies all went to Clinton (blue)."

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/722759722416390146

As for Ted Cruz, wow. Look, Trump was supposed to win NY but the debate was wether he would win 50 percent across the state. Nate Silver focuses on how you perform against your polls and Trump creamed the polls this time. No one had him at 60 percent of the vote.

It was a disaster for Cruz in finishing 10 points behind John Kasich.

"Ted Cruz's New York value: Zero delegates http://politi.co/1pguQ7Q"

https://twitter.com/politico/status/722778111499235329

Cruz last night actually compared himself to Bernie Sanders. That's funny as I've been making this same analogy for months. Both are just ideological nuisances who do little to bring the Senate forward.

Bernie is the Cruz of the Left. Seems now Cruz admits he's the Bernie of the Right.

I agree with Brian Beutler. This was a body blow to #NeverTrump.

"The GOP Can’t Legitimately Deny Trump the Nomination."

"With Trump closing in on the 1,237-delegate threshold, wresting the nomination away will seem underhanded to Republican voters."

"In the aftermath of Cruz’s victory in the Wisconsin primary, when the Trump campaign seemed to be floundering, it was tempting to imagine that Republicans could keep Trump far enough from 1,237 to justify denying him the nomination: Yes, Trump won vote and delegate pluralities, they could say. But he also has relatively high unfavorables within the GOP, and Republican voters are more supportive, in sum, of a Cruz-Kasich ticket, or a Cruz-Marco Rubio ticket, than they are of Trump winning the nomination."

"Now that it looks like he’ll be at least close to an outright delegate majority, it’s difficult to see how anti-Trump conservatives can deny him the nomination and avoid accusations that they have rejected the discernible will of the Republican electorate."

"No matter how short of 1,237 Trump falls, his argument at the convention will be simple, and completely intuitive: I might not have won in a way that requires the Republican Party to give me the nomination—but I won a moral victory. It’s in your power to deny me the nomination, but woe betide the GOP if you do. This will ring true both to his own supporters, and to GOP voters who perhaps supported a different candidate but are amenable to Trump and believe instinctually that in an election, the person with the most votes should win."

https://newrepublic.com/article/132832/gop-cant-legitimately-deny-trump-nomination

The trouble has always been: even if Trump gets just a plurality, how do you take it from him and give it to the guy with much fewer delegates? But Trump's win last night was a body blow to the Establishment as Chris Cillizza says:

"We have won millions of more votes than Senator Cruz, millions and millions of more votes than Governor Kasich," Trump said. "We've won, and now especially after tonight, close to 300 delegates more than Senator Cruz."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/20/the-kinder-more-disciplined-donald-trump-should-scare-the-hell-out-of-the-gop-establishment/?postshare=5731461159188152&tid=ss_tw

He also says that Cruz is basically 'mathematically eliminated.'

"We don't have much of a race anymore," he added. "Sen. Cruz is just about mathematically eliminated and we've won another state. We're really really rocking."

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-cruz-just-about-mathematically-eliminated/article/2588991?custom_click=rss

Trump then said that 'it's better that the most votes get the most delegates.' This is a narrative that he will push that has a lot of resonance.

It's going to be very tough for the GOP to deny him the nomination. Polls show GOP voters by a big margin believe that the candidate with the most votes should get the nomination rather than engineering something on a second ballot at a brokered convention.

P.S. There is now a whisper campaign in GOP circles that Trump may be able to win even with 50 to 100 less than 1237.

“Trump has to get to 1,237, but there’s a lot of talk about, ‘What is the real number?’” said another RNC member. “Whatever half the uncommitted number is, that’s probably a reasonable number.”

“I think a lot of people think if he gets within 50-100 [of 1,237], he’ll be able to carry it,” said Steve House, the Colorado GOP chairman, who is himself an unbound delegate and is already being courted by the Trump and Cruz campaigns.

"The whisper conversations about this indeterminate “real number” that Trump must hit by June 7 reveal a growing if reluctant consensus among party officials and establishment Republicans that if he gets close enough, they can’t take the nomination away."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/trumps-real-magic-number-is-less-than-1-237-222184#ixzz46NU5dhtn



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