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Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Hillary Leads Bernie in Maryland, 58-33

Can you feel the momentum?

"Hillary Clinton headed for a big victory in Maryland- leads Sanders 58/33 there. 70/25 with African Americans: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/ppps-new-maryla

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/722508807390236676

"Clinton's so dominant in MD she's even up 48/43 with younger voters to go along with her 66/27 lead with seniors: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/ppp

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/722509020834177024

Once they factor that into the polling averages, this will give her about a 21 point average lead in RCP.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/md/maryland_democratic_presidential_primary-4312.html

So this should give her a strong majority of the state's 95 delegates.

As for the GOP, Trump is looking good.
"Our new Maryland poll finds Donald Trump leading with 43% to 29% for John Kasich and 24% for Ted Cruz: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/ppps-new-maryland-poll-find

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/722507492308217856

There is a lot of talk about Cruz stealing the nomination in a second count at the convention. Trouble is doing this poorly is going to hurt his legitimacy further. Even if they stop Trump from getting 1234 on the first ballot, how do they get Cruz their on a second or third? He may peel off some of Trump's delegates-even a good deal-but enough to get to 1234?

Even winnowing doesn't seem like it will stop Trump at least in Maryland.

"Not clear Trump would be in trouble in MD even if field did winnow- leads Kasich 53/41, Cruz 54/34 in head to heads: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/ppps-new-maryland-poll-find

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/722508130098266112

Off topic. The Chris Van Hollen-Donna Edwards Senate Maryland Democratic race is entirely racially polarized.

"Chris Van Hollen leads Donna Edwards 42-33 in the Maryland Democratic Senate primary, though 25% still undecided: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/ppps-new-maryland-poll-finds-both-donald-trump-and-hillary-clint

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/722510469462888450
"Key in MD-Sen is Van Hollen up by even more with whites (58/16) than Edwards is with black voters (57/19): http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/ppps-new-maryland-poll-find
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/722510630880731137

It's sort of sad that things are quite so 'black and white' but such remains life in American politics.

"State Sen. Delores Goodwin Kelley, a Baltimore County Democrat, said Wednesday that the contest being thrust into the framework of race and gender politics is “kind of sad,” considering it’s more about voter demographics."

"Nevertheless, Kelley, a black female, is voting for Van Hollen."

“If you really want to get the job done, you have to pick the best person,” said Kelley, who served roughly 12 years in the state legislature with Van Hollen. “When one person is clearly more knowledgeable, works better with others, is willing to do the heavy lifting, now is not the time to make an historic statement.”

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/16/insurgent-dem-threatens-to-upset-pelosi-ally-in-md-senate-battle.html

Obama recently waded into the race by criticizing a super PAC ad by the Edwards campaign calling Van Hollen weak on guns. 

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/white-house-donna-edwards-senate-ad-221872

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