I love me some Joy Reid.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/04/23/msnbcs_joy_reid_vs_sanders_campaigns_jeff_weaver_you_only_win_white_voters_and_white_caucuses.html
She really called Jeff Weaver out here. Bernie has suggested now that he admits that he needs to win the majority of pledged delegates and votes or he doesn't win the nomination. But he also tried to add that general election polls should be factored in.
Weaver also hit that tired idea. Even Trump gets the fallacy of these general election polls. I don't believe for one second that Hillary loses to Kasich by 7 points.
"As soon as John Kasich is hit with negative ads, he will drop like a rock in the polls against Crooked Hillary Clinton. I will win!"
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/724052308661772288
He's not going to beat Hillary. But it's true that Kasich's numbers will sink once Democrats started attacking him as Bernie's numbers would once the GOP started hitting him.
You have to remember as well that many independents are what you call 'negative partisans'-they dislike partisanship.
It's for this reason that if any of the general election polls are worth looking at, it's straight up Hillary vs. Trump. If Bernie or Kasich were the nominee, their numbers would both sink.
Anyway, it was great seeing Joy call out the Hillary hating Weaver who also tried to suggest Hillary has to reach 2383 on pledged delegates alone. Wrong Mr. Weaver.
She really called Jeff Weaver out here. Bernie has suggested now that he admits that he needs to win the majority of pledged delegates and votes or he doesn't win the nomination. But he also tried to add that general election polls should be factored in.
Weaver also hit that tired idea. Even Trump gets the fallacy of these general election polls. I don't believe for one second that Hillary loses to Kasich by 7 points.
"As soon as John Kasich is hit with negative ads, he will drop like a rock in the polls against Crooked Hillary Clinton. I will win!"
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/724052308661772288
He's not going to beat Hillary. But it's true that Kasich's numbers will sink once Democrats started attacking him as Bernie's numbers would once the GOP started hitting him.
You have to remember as well that many independents are what you call 'negative partisans'-they dislike partisanship.
It's for this reason that if any of the general election polls are worth looking at, it's straight up Hillary vs. Trump. If Bernie or Kasich were the nominee, their numbers would both sink.
Anyway, it was great seeing Joy call out the Hillary hating Weaver who also tried to suggest Hillary has to reach 2383 on pledged delegates alone. Wrong Mr. Weaver.
She needs 2383 in total delegates. No Dem primary has ever made you reach the target number with pledge delegates alone. This is a new standard that Weaver has cooked up on his own.
At this point Hillary has 1941 total delegates, but there are 199 still outstanding SDs, the majority of which will go to her. Say she gets 180 of them: this means she has more like 2121 delegates. This actually means she's more like 90 percent of the way there.
Indeed, after Tuesday, you will likely see a decent portion of the 199 trickle over to her. After she won NY, 44 more SDs joined her.
On Tuesday she seems to have a good shot at getting around 220 more pledged delegates. So adding that to her 2121 delegates she realistically has-simply awarding her the SDs now that will come to her soon-and she's up to around 2341 in delegates after Tuesday.
That is just 42 short of 2383. That's before the May states, and the big June 7 primary in California and New Jersey.
It's now looking like she may even win Indiana on May 3 which is worth 83 total delegates. She could then win over 50 percent of those for around 43 delegates or so. This could put her very close to 2383.
That's on May 3. Of course, we don't know how many of the 199 undeclared SDs declare themselves for her by then-so the numbers may not reflect that yet. Though after Tuesday I think you will see a decent number feel that it's safe to come her way on a day where she may well win 4 of 5 of 5 of 5 states.
But even if the numbers don't quite show it yet, in truth she will probably be very close to 2383 after the May Indiana primary-even if she loses by a few points rather than wins by a few.
I think there's something in this DailyNewsBin post.
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/how-many-votes-does-hillary-gain-by-telling-bernie-to-piss-off/24578/
I half agree. She doesn't really need the Berners in November. In saying that, remember, my definition of Berners doesn't cover all who voted for Bernie Sanders.
I've spoken to friends who voted for Bernie who always vote Democrat and who will vote for Hillary Clinton if she's the nominee-and now we know she will be the nominee.
Still, she may be smart in not telling him to get out now. That's for friends of her like me and DailyNewsBin to do!
She can take the high road and say that she ran till the end in 2008 and he should too. But that doesn't stop us, her supporters, from grumbling that the sooner he gets out the better!
Truth is, he probably will run till June 7, though as the math I did above shows, she will probably in truth have 2383 before then.
At this point Hillary has 1941 total delegates, but there are 199 still outstanding SDs, the majority of which will go to her. Say she gets 180 of them: this means she has more like 2121 delegates. This actually means she's more like 90 percent of the way there.
Indeed, after Tuesday, you will likely see a decent portion of the 199 trickle over to her. After she won NY, 44 more SDs joined her.
On Tuesday she seems to have a good shot at getting around 220 more pledged delegates. So adding that to her 2121 delegates she realistically has-simply awarding her the SDs now that will come to her soon-and she's up to around 2341 in delegates after Tuesday.
That is just 42 short of 2383. That's before the May states, and the big June 7 primary in California and New Jersey.
It's now looking like she may even win Indiana on May 3 which is worth 83 total delegates. She could then win over 50 percent of those for around 43 delegates or so. This could put her very close to 2383.
That's on May 3. Of course, we don't know how many of the 199 undeclared SDs declare themselves for her by then-so the numbers may not reflect that yet. Though after Tuesday I think you will see a decent number feel that it's safe to come her way on a day where she may well win 4 of 5 of 5 of 5 states.
But even if the numbers don't quite show it yet, in truth she will probably be very close to 2383 after the May Indiana primary-even if she loses by a few points rather than wins by a few.
I think there's something in this DailyNewsBin post.
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/how-many-votes-does-hillary-gain-by-telling-bernie-to-piss-off/24578/
I half agree. She doesn't really need the Berners in November. In saying that, remember, my definition of Berners doesn't cover all who voted for Bernie Sanders.
I've spoken to friends who voted for Bernie who always vote Democrat and who will vote for Hillary Clinton if she's the nominee-and now we know she will be the nominee.
Still, she may be smart in not telling him to get out now. That's for friends of her like me and DailyNewsBin to do!
She can take the high road and say that she ran till the end in 2008 and he should too. But that doesn't stop us, her supporters, from grumbling that the sooner he gets out the better!
Truth is, he probably will run till June 7, though as the math I did above shows, she will probably in truth have 2383 before then.
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