Last night was a very strong night for the Democratic party.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/04/last-night-was-very-good-night-for.html
It was equally horrible for the Republican party. Trump didn't just win, he crushed it in all five states last night. His margins were so large that even if Kasich-Cruz had started their alliance earlier it would have made no difference.
Scott Sumner was saying how this is the worst humiliation he's ever seen a party go through-worse than the Dems in 1968. And remember, 1968 was the start of a period where the Dems only won the Presidency 4 out of 24 years.
"Where this goes is plain to see. Whether or not Trump clinches the nomination before Cleveland, he will have a commanding delegate lead over Cruz, for whom a first-ballot majority — or even anything close to that — is mathematically impossible. And any sane Republican insider will perceive reality soon enough — that Cruz’s strategy for winning the nomination on the convention floor is electoral suicide."
"Like his pact with Kasich, the plan is blatantly Machiavellian and self-serving, the very essence of Ted Cruz: making up the yawning delegate gap by recruiting double agents — delegates who will abandon Trump for Cruz on the second ballot, nullifying the result of state primaries. For the party to somehow maneuver a Cruz nomination — let alone by transparent trickery — would be a poison pill, outraging Trump’s supporters and repelling voters at large. As Peter Hart puts it, “Trump may be a disaster for their hopes in winning back the White House, but denying him may be an even bigger disaster for the party’s hopes of retaining its majorities on Capitol Hill.”
"This goes double for alternative saviors, whether Kasich or the second coming of Mitt Romney. Which is why Paul Ryan, no fool, ran in the opposite direction."
"But Trump is the tremor which presages an earthquake. For the fissures which will roil the convention will fracture the party for years to come."
"The most shattering is the fear and loathing between Trump’s blue-collar base and the wealthy donors and ideological conservatives who have labeled them electoral lowlife."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-north-patterson/the-gops-eve-of-destructi_b_9701880.html
The party in years to come will be more fractured than ever. It's even possible you see a Trump party come up in the next few years. Or maybe the Trumpians chase the Establishment out of its own party.
"The role of free trade in alienating blue-collar voters is, by now, obvious — and rocket fuel for Trump. Less widely noted is that Republican legislators squelched programs to ameliorate its effects. As Steven Rattner pointed out in the New York Times, the Republican Congress killed Obama’s proposals for larger tax credits for child care; investing in community colleges; helping make retirement plans portable; and giving tax relief to manufacturing communities."
"The same fate met programs to retrain workers; help them relocate when their jobs went overseas; or temporarily supplement their wages if they were compelled to take a lesser job. Ditto for payroll tax cuts and creating an infrastructure bank to fund thousands of construction jobs. The coup de grace was cutting back on food stamps. In sum, the GOP establishment — epitomized by Ryan — waged a class war against its base."
"The base noticed. Donald Trump is the expression of their anger, not the cause. They are through with drinking the GOP’s Kool-Aid."
The future of the GOP: fragmentation. A war of factions against other factions in the White Man's party.
"To say the least, this marriage is unlikely to be saved. The Paul Ryans of the party are unrepentant; the GOP’s hitherto most reliable followers have now identified the class enemy. The rise of Donald Trump is only the beginning."
"Finally, the fight between Trump and Cruz will deepen all these fractures going forward. Both will lose in November; all that differs are the details of fragmentation. The defeat of Trump will lead to right-wing recriminations against both his followers and the party establishment, intensifying the internecine warfare which will further shrink the party’s electorate. The defeat of Cruz will eviscerate the claim that the GOP can win the presidency by moving hard-right, aggravating the schism between the ideologues and everyone else. The center cannot hold."
"It is hard to kill off a major political party. The Republicans proved that between 1964 and 1968, rallying from the Goldwater debacle to win the presidency with Richard Nixon. But that was then, when the Democrats were riven by the war in Vietnam."
"Now the Democrats are having an honest fight — nasty, to be sure, but one whose premises are commonly understood: that a society does better when more of its citizens thrive, and that helping to ensure this is a legitimate concern of government."
"Not so the Republicans. They are structurally fragmented and ideologically incoherent, an agglomeration of sects with irreconcilable differences. Their only common denominator is that all are at war with the changing demographics which, at the presidential level, are doing the party in."
"In short, the GOP of 2016 is Humpty Dumpty. He has had a great fall, and cannot be put together again, at least as we have known him — not in 2020, or ever. Whatever takes his place will look so different that Humpty would not know it."
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/04/last-night-was-very-good-night-for.html
It was equally horrible for the Republican party. Trump didn't just win, he crushed it in all five states last night. His margins were so large that even if Kasich-Cruz had started their alliance earlier it would have made no difference.
Scott Sumner was saying how this is the worst humiliation he's ever seen a party go through-worse than the Dems in 1968. And remember, 1968 was the start of a period where the Dems only won the Presidency 4 out of 24 years.
"Where this goes is plain to see. Whether or not Trump clinches the nomination before Cleveland, he will have a commanding delegate lead over Cruz, for whom a first-ballot majority — or even anything close to that — is mathematically impossible. And any sane Republican insider will perceive reality soon enough — that Cruz’s strategy for winning the nomination on the convention floor is electoral suicide."
"Like his pact with Kasich, the plan is blatantly Machiavellian and self-serving, the very essence of Ted Cruz: making up the yawning delegate gap by recruiting double agents — delegates who will abandon Trump for Cruz on the second ballot, nullifying the result of state primaries. For the party to somehow maneuver a Cruz nomination — let alone by transparent trickery — would be a poison pill, outraging Trump’s supporters and repelling voters at large. As Peter Hart puts it, “Trump may be a disaster for their hopes in winning back the White House, but denying him may be an even bigger disaster for the party’s hopes of retaining its majorities on Capitol Hill.”
"This goes double for alternative saviors, whether Kasich or the second coming of Mitt Romney. Which is why Paul Ryan, no fool, ran in the opposite direction."
"But Trump is the tremor which presages an earthquake. For the fissures which will roil the convention will fracture the party for years to come."
"The most shattering is the fear and loathing between Trump’s blue-collar base and the wealthy donors and ideological conservatives who have labeled them electoral lowlife."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-north-patterson/the-gops-eve-of-destructi_b_9701880.html
The party in years to come will be more fractured than ever. It's even possible you see a Trump party come up in the next few years. Or maybe the Trumpians chase the Establishment out of its own party.
"The role of free trade in alienating blue-collar voters is, by now, obvious — and rocket fuel for Trump. Less widely noted is that Republican legislators squelched programs to ameliorate its effects. As Steven Rattner pointed out in the New York Times, the Republican Congress killed Obama’s proposals for larger tax credits for child care; investing in community colleges; helping make retirement plans portable; and giving tax relief to manufacturing communities."
"The same fate met programs to retrain workers; help them relocate when their jobs went overseas; or temporarily supplement their wages if they were compelled to take a lesser job. Ditto for payroll tax cuts and creating an infrastructure bank to fund thousands of construction jobs. The coup de grace was cutting back on food stamps. In sum, the GOP establishment — epitomized by Ryan — waged a class war against its base."
"The base noticed. Donald Trump is the expression of their anger, not the cause. They are through with drinking the GOP’s Kool-Aid."
The future of the GOP: fragmentation. A war of factions against other factions in the White Man's party.
"To say the least, this marriage is unlikely to be saved. The Paul Ryans of the party are unrepentant; the GOP’s hitherto most reliable followers have now identified the class enemy. The rise of Donald Trump is only the beginning."
"Finally, the fight between Trump and Cruz will deepen all these fractures going forward. Both will lose in November; all that differs are the details of fragmentation. The defeat of Trump will lead to right-wing recriminations against both his followers and the party establishment, intensifying the internecine warfare which will further shrink the party’s electorate. The defeat of Cruz will eviscerate the claim that the GOP can win the presidency by moving hard-right, aggravating the schism between the ideologues and everyone else. The center cannot hold."
"It is hard to kill off a major political party. The Republicans proved that between 1964 and 1968, rallying from the Goldwater debacle to win the presidency with Richard Nixon. But that was then, when the Democrats were riven by the war in Vietnam."
"Now the Democrats are having an honest fight — nasty, to be sure, but one whose premises are commonly understood: that a society does better when more of its citizens thrive, and that helping to ensure this is a legitimate concern of government."
"Not so the Republicans. They are structurally fragmented and ideologically incoherent, an agglomeration of sects with irreconcilable differences. Their only common denominator is that all are at war with the changing demographics which, at the presidential level, are doing the party in."
"In short, the GOP of 2016 is Humpty Dumpty. He has had a great fall, and cannot be put together again, at least as we have known him — not in 2020, or ever. Whatever takes his place will look so different that Humpty would not know it."
"You Best Believe the GOP is on the Eve of Destruction."
ReplyDeleteI hope to God that this is the case, that Trump will lead to the GOP getting shellacked in November in such a manner that it would make 1964 look like a ping-pong match.
But that also means we have to be even more dedicated to work hard to get Hillary elected. There is too much at stake, and the unrepentant Bernie fans had better wise up and face the fact that their whining and anti-Hillary attitude isn't going to help.
We do have to do the work. I do honestly think we don't need the Berners as much as they'd like to think.
ReplyDeleteShe has the Obama Coalition.
A lot of more moderate Republican white women will probably be so scared of Trump they will either not vote-some will even vote for Hillary.