These are the first endorsements ever by Last Men and Overmen. I'd never endorsed anyone before-mostly because I never thought of it! But anyone, of course, can endorse candidates.
I've never formally endorsed Hillary Clinton-as my preference is kind of obvious. I endorse her, I endorse her, I endorse her.
But it looks like she has this race in hand now, so it enables me to look at a few other races. Both Pennsylvania and Maryland have their Senate Democratic primaries on Tuesday along with the Presidential primary.
In Pennsylvania, it's a tough race between Joe Sestak and Katie McGinty.
"Democrats are locked in a tight, negative battle to determine who will challenge Republican Sen. Pat Toomey in November, with national groups spending millions of dollars to boost a candidate who is trailing in the polls against an opponent who has spurned party leadership in showing an independent streak."
"That outside money – around $4 million from different groups – has provided a jolt to Katie McGinty, a former Clinton administration official and chief of staff to Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf. In fact, Democratic leaders have gone all in on her candidacy, with President Obama and Vice President Biden endorsing McGinty and Biden campaigning with her. The Senate Democrats’ campaign arm and the state’s other senator, Democrat Bob Casey, have also endorsed McGinty, viewing her as the best option to win the seat in November."
"But the spending and endorsements have increased deep divides between national Democrats and the other candidate, former congressman and retired Navy Adm. Joe Sestak, who narrowly lost to Toomey six years ago."
"It’s created a potentially devastating problem for the party and could cost it a seat as Democrats try to regain control of the upper chamber."
"Though McGinty is surging, Sestak (pictured, at right) leads in the race and could eke out a win next week. If he does, there will be sore feelings and frustrations on both sides."
"Polls in late March showed Sestak with a 17-point lead, but McGinty began to close that gap in early April, and a poll released Wednesday showed the two of them tied at 39 percent with 18 percent still undecided. A poll released Thursday showed Sestak maintaining a six-point lead in the race with 29 percent of voters still undecided – though Sestak had a nine-point lead among likely voters. (An internal poll released the same day by McGinty's campaign showed her ahead by three points, 37 percent-34 percent.)"
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/04/22/dems_wage_intra-party_war_in_pa_senate_race_130360.html
Sestak is a good guy, with an impressive background. So why do I support McGinty? For reasons of Nate Silver, and Harry Enten:
"Sestak looks like he is in major trouble. Turns out that million of dollars spent and having party actors against you hurts big time."
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/723578042027790336
The Establishment doesn't want Sestak. They worry if he'll be the best candidate in November and he has a penchant for not being a team player. Here's the trouble. We need reliable Dems to take back the Senate in November which will enable Hillary Clinton to put Democrats on the Supreme Court as well as passing a strong Democratic agenda.
Sestak as a member of the House, tended to always play it a bit coy-he would refuse to let the leadership know what his vote was until the day, etc. But this reticence is not helpful to the overall effort.
As Enten and Silver says 'The Party Decides.'
I'm going with the party here.
A similar dynamic is playing out in Maryland in the race between Rep. Chris Van Hollen and Rep. Donna Edwards. This race, unfortunately, has been divided on clear racial lines. The overwhelming majority of white Maryland Democrats are supporting Van Hollen who is white, with the overwhelming majority of black Maryland Democrats supporting Edwards who is a black, single mother.
It's a tough race, and it makes you kind of sad that so often races are decided on such stark racial lines but that's life in America.
I've never formally endorsed Hillary Clinton-as my preference is kind of obvious. I endorse her, I endorse her, I endorse her.
But it looks like she has this race in hand now, so it enables me to look at a few other races. Both Pennsylvania and Maryland have their Senate Democratic primaries on Tuesday along with the Presidential primary.
In Pennsylvania, it's a tough race between Joe Sestak and Katie McGinty.
"Democrats are locked in a tight, negative battle to determine who will challenge Republican Sen. Pat Toomey in November, with national groups spending millions of dollars to boost a candidate who is trailing in the polls against an opponent who has spurned party leadership in showing an independent streak."
"That outside money – around $4 million from different groups – has provided a jolt to Katie McGinty, a former Clinton administration official and chief of staff to Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf. In fact, Democratic leaders have gone all in on her candidacy, with President Obama and Vice President Biden endorsing McGinty and Biden campaigning with her. The Senate Democrats’ campaign arm and the state’s other senator, Democrat Bob Casey, have also endorsed McGinty, viewing her as the best option to win the seat in November."
"But the spending and endorsements have increased deep divides between national Democrats and the other candidate, former congressman and retired Navy Adm. Joe Sestak, who narrowly lost to Toomey six years ago."
"It’s created a potentially devastating problem for the party and could cost it a seat as Democrats try to regain control of the upper chamber."
"Though McGinty is surging, Sestak (pictured, at right) leads in the race and could eke out a win next week. If he does, there will be sore feelings and frustrations on both sides."
"Polls in late March showed Sestak with a 17-point lead, but McGinty began to close that gap in early April, and a poll released Wednesday showed the two of them tied at 39 percent with 18 percent still undecided. A poll released Thursday showed Sestak maintaining a six-point lead in the race with 29 percent of voters still undecided – though Sestak had a nine-point lead among likely voters. (An internal poll released the same day by McGinty's campaign showed her ahead by three points, 37 percent-34 percent.)"
"McGinty’s campaign and supporters sense the momentum, both in the polls and on the ground, and think that while their candidate was relatively unknown for months after entering the race, she is peaking at the perfect time ahead of Tuesday’s primary."
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/04/22/dems_wage_intra-party_war_in_pa_senate_race_130360.html
Sestak is a good guy, with an impressive background. So why do I support McGinty? For reasons of Nate Silver, and Harry Enten:
"Sestak looks like he is in major trouble. Turns out that million of dollars spent and having party actors against you hurts big time."
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/723578042027790336
The Establishment doesn't want Sestak. They worry if he'll be the best candidate in November and he has a penchant for not being a team player. Here's the trouble. We need reliable Dems to take back the Senate in November which will enable Hillary Clinton to put Democrats on the Supreme Court as well as passing a strong Democratic agenda.
Sestak as a member of the House, tended to always play it a bit coy-he would refuse to let the leadership know what his vote was until the day, etc. But this reticence is not helpful to the overall effort.
As Enten and Silver says 'The Party Decides.'
I'm going with the party here.
A similar dynamic is playing out in Maryland in the race between Rep. Chris Van Hollen and Rep. Donna Edwards. This race, unfortunately, has been divided on clear racial lines. The overwhelming majority of white Maryland Democrats are supporting Van Hollen who is white, with the overwhelming majority of black Maryland Democrats supporting Edwards who is a black, single mother.
It's a tough race, and it makes you kind of sad that so often races are decided on such stark racial lines but that's life in America.
But why am I supporting Van Hollen? No question Ms Edwards personal story is compelling. I also would like to see more diversity in the US Senate-currently there is only one African member-Cory Booker.
Unfortunately, there is an African-American candidate I would have supported full throatedly-Rep. Elijah Cummings. But he elected not to run.
While Edwards has the compelling personal story and she would add to the diversity of the Senate, I think Van Hollen is the better fit at this point. While both of them have served in the House, Van Hollen has been there longer and is a veteran of budget negotiations. He is also very tight with House Minority Leader, Nancy Pelosi. This is how it goes sometimes in interviews. You may well have two very qualified candidates so you have to go with the one that you think has that little extra.
Beyond that, here is a tell for me, that suggests Edwards is not the best fit:
Unfortunately, there is an African-American candidate I would have supported full throatedly-Rep. Elijah Cummings. But he elected not to run.
While Edwards has the compelling personal story and she would add to the diversity of the Senate, I think Van Hollen is the better fit at this point. While both of them have served in the House, Van Hollen has been there longer and is a veteran of budget negotiations. He is also very tight with House Minority Leader, Nancy Pelosi. This is how it goes sometimes in interviews. You may well have two very qualified candidates so you have to go with the one that you think has that little extra.
Beyond that, here is a tell for me, that suggests Edwards is not the best fit:
"On the verge of a possible upset of the Democratic Party’s longtime golden boy, Rep. Chris Van Hollen, in Tuesday’s Maryland Senate primary, Rep. Donna Edwards has a question for her fellow members of the Congressional Black Caucus: Why aren’t more of you endorsing me?"
"POLITICO has learned that Edwards met privately last week with several CBC members to voice her frustration that so few African-American lawmakers had offered her their support, according to five sources familiar with the meetings."
"Only four of the 46 CBC members — Reps. Gwen Moore of Wisconsin, Lacy Clay of Missouri, Robin Kelly of Illinois and Hank Johnson of Georgia — are backing Edwards over Van Hollen, an unusually small number for a group known for standing by fellow African-American lawmakers. Meanwhile, Van Hollen has been making hay over his growing number of endorsements from black political leaders in Maryland, including some in Edwards’ district, though he has yet to be endorsed by a CBC member."
"Edwards, who won her House seat by defeating Al Wynn, a popular member of the CBC, in a Democratic primary in 2008, has had a strained relationship with many black lawmakers from the start. But with she and Van Hollen running nearly neck-and-neck in a primary that many expected Van Hollen to win easily, Edwards has been reaching out over the past two weeks to members of the CBC to ask why they’re not backing her bid to be only the second black woman elected to the U.S. Senate. She’s also pressed her case with lawmakers at the Democratic Club restaurant, where members often eat."
"Sources close to the CBC and lawmakers familiar with the conversations said some of Edwards’ CBC colleagues responded to her in frank terms. Members of the CBC have long considered her abrasive and said she’s not an easy colleague to work with."
“She has not developed good relationships with the members of the CBC, quite frankly,” said a source familiar with the CBC. “A lot of people find her difficult.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/donna-edwards-congressional-black-caucus-chris-van-hollen-222169#ixzz46eFcFvRd
The CBC obviously has a preference for supporting qualified African-American candidates. That they don't support her makes you think she may not be good at building the kinds of relationships you need to be effective in the Senate.
Again, we're trying to put in a strong Democratic Senate which can hit on all cylinders and be a partner with a President Hillary Clinton.
"Edwards’ defenders, however, say her fellow CBC members should be rallying around a black woman who stands a decent chance of reaching the Senate, where only one Democrat — New Jersey’s Cory Booker — is African-American. They say her fellow House members are punishing her for failing to schmooze with CBC members on a regular basis — and because Van Hollen is known to be close to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi."
“Donna is about taking care of the business of governing — and she is not particularly focused on backslapping and hobnobbing with everyone,” said Johnson. “Some members socialize, are very warm toward each other, play together, drink together and sit together on the floor — and that’s fine. There are others who, for whatever reason, have a different trajectory, and I respect Donna for just being the person and representative that she is.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/donna-edwards-congressional-black-caucus-chris-van-hollen-222169#ixzz46eG9fmfW
Fair enough. I mean, everyone is different, to be sure. But an inability to schmooze can be a liability.
Edwards was also strongly rebuked for an ad that accused Van Hollen of being weak on gun control:
"Now, the race has turned into a nail-biter, and the campaign has turned ugly. A super PAC backing Edwards, for example, accused Van Hollen of being pro-NRA because of a niche provision tucked into a Democratic campaign finance bill he once helped negotiate at the behest of then-Speaker Pelosi (D-Calif.) in an effort to entice GOP members to vote for the larger campaign finance package."
"After the White House, Pelosi and other House Democrats call on the Edwards-cheerleading super PAC to remove the ad — which they argued was an improper use of an emotional and sensitive topic — two CBC members, Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison and Missouri Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, issued statements to POLITICO saying the ad had misconstrued the context of the campaign finance legislation."
"POLITICO has learned that Edwards met privately last week with several CBC members to voice her frustration that so few African-American lawmakers had offered her their support, according to five sources familiar with the meetings."
"Only four of the 46 CBC members — Reps. Gwen Moore of Wisconsin, Lacy Clay of Missouri, Robin Kelly of Illinois and Hank Johnson of Georgia — are backing Edwards over Van Hollen, an unusually small number for a group known for standing by fellow African-American lawmakers. Meanwhile, Van Hollen has been making hay over his growing number of endorsements from black political leaders in Maryland, including some in Edwards’ district, though he has yet to be endorsed by a CBC member."
"Edwards, who won her House seat by defeating Al Wynn, a popular member of the CBC, in a Democratic primary in 2008, has had a strained relationship with many black lawmakers from the start. But with she and Van Hollen running nearly neck-and-neck in a primary that many expected Van Hollen to win easily, Edwards has been reaching out over the past two weeks to members of the CBC to ask why they’re not backing her bid to be only the second black woman elected to the U.S. Senate. She’s also pressed her case with lawmakers at the Democratic Club restaurant, where members often eat."
"Sources close to the CBC and lawmakers familiar with the conversations said some of Edwards’ CBC colleagues responded to her in frank terms. Members of the CBC have long considered her abrasive and said she’s not an easy colleague to work with."
“She has not developed good relationships with the members of the CBC, quite frankly,” said a source familiar with the CBC. “A lot of people find her difficult.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/donna-edwards-congressional-black-caucus-chris-van-hollen-222169#ixzz46eFcFvRd
The CBC obviously has a preference for supporting qualified African-American candidates. That they don't support her makes you think she may not be good at building the kinds of relationships you need to be effective in the Senate.
Again, we're trying to put in a strong Democratic Senate which can hit on all cylinders and be a partner with a President Hillary Clinton.
"Edwards’ defenders, however, say her fellow CBC members should be rallying around a black woman who stands a decent chance of reaching the Senate, where only one Democrat — New Jersey’s Cory Booker — is African-American. They say her fellow House members are punishing her for failing to schmooze with CBC members on a regular basis — and because Van Hollen is known to be close to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi."
“Donna is about taking care of the business of governing — and she is not particularly focused on backslapping and hobnobbing with everyone,” said Johnson. “Some members socialize, are very warm toward each other, play together, drink together and sit together on the floor — and that’s fine. There are others who, for whatever reason, have a different trajectory, and I respect Donna for just being the person and representative that she is.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/donna-edwards-congressional-black-caucus-chris-van-hollen-222169#ixzz46eG9fmfW
Fair enough. I mean, everyone is different, to be sure. But an inability to schmooze can be a liability.
Edwards was also strongly rebuked for an ad that accused Van Hollen of being weak on gun control:
"Now, the race has turned into a nail-biter, and the campaign has turned ugly. A super PAC backing Edwards, for example, accused Van Hollen of being pro-NRA because of a niche provision tucked into a Democratic campaign finance bill he once helped negotiate at the behest of then-Speaker Pelosi (D-Calif.) in an effort to entice GOP members to vote for the larger campaign finance package."
"After the White House, Pelosi and other House Democrats call on the Edwards-cheerleading super PAC to remove the ad — which they argued was an improper use of an emotional and sensitive topic — two CBC members, Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison and Missouri Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, issued statements to POLITICO saying the ad had misconstrued the context of the campaign finance legislation."
"Cleaver, who decried the PAC’s ad as “disgusting,” told POLITICO that Edwards approached him last week — though he would not disclose details of their conversation."
"Earlier this year, the CBC’s political action committee passed on endorsing Edwards in an embarrassing public snub. POLITICO reported that Wynn, the former representative whom Edwards unseated in 2008 and who sits on the PAC board — had made the argument that black officials in the state were not backing her and they should stay out of the race as well."
"Earlier this year, the CBC’s political action committee passed on endorsing Edwards in an embarrassing public snub. POLITICO reported that Wynn, the former representative whom Edwards unseated in 2008 and who sits on the PAC board — had made the argument that black officials in the state were not backing her and they should stay out of the race as well."
"The Edwards-CBC tension goes back years, to a House Ethics Committee dispute that involved Edwards and fellow CBC member Maxine Waters. The panel was probing the California Democrat for conflicts of interest in coordinating Treasury Department meetings with executives from a bank where her husband owned stock. When her grandson-turned-chief of staff Mikael Moore became the focus of the investigation, Edwards grilled him publicly for not seeing ethical red flags sooner."
"That’s when the bad blood started, and Waters and other members of the CBC never forgot it, with many interpreting Edwards’ moves as an act of disloyalty."
"It is unclear whether Edwards’ meetings will be successful in securing endorsements for her in the last days before the primary."
"She could use the boost: A recent NBC4/Marist Maryland poll found her trailing her competitor by 6 points, signaling she has potentially lost the slight edge she had on Van Hollen just a few weeks ago."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/donna-edwards-congressional-black-caucus-chris-van-hollen-222169#ixzz46eHmV3hz
As for Elijah Cummings he has-very-little to say about Donna Edwards:
"But CBC members don’t appear to be coming to her rescue. Rep. Elijah Cummings of Maryland, for example, endorsed Maryland African Americans Will Jawando to take over Van Hollen’s congressional seat and Catherine Pugh for Baltimore mayor in the past few days."
"But asked whether there could be one more coming — perhaps for Edwards, his fellow Marylander? — he shrugged and walked away."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/donna-edwards-congressional-black-caucus-chris-van-hollen-222169#ixzz46eHurbVy
A new Maryland poll shows Van Hollen with a 16 point lead.
"That’s when the bad blood started, and Waters and other members of the CBC never forgot it, with many interpreting Edwards’ moves as an act of disloyalty."
"It is unclear whether Edwards’ meetings will be successful in securing endorsements for her in the last days before the primary."
"She could use the boost: A recent NBC4/Marist Maryland poll found her trailing her competitor by 6 points, signaling she has potentially lost the slight edge she had on Van Hollen just a few weeks ago."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/donna-edwards-congressional-black-caucus-chris-van-hollen-222169#ixzz46eHmV3hz
As for Elijah Cummings he has-very-little to say about Donna Edwards:
"But CBC members don’t appear to be coming to her rescue. Rep. Elijah Cummings of Maryland, for example, endorsed Maryland African Americans Will Jawando to take over Van Hollen’s congressional seat and Catherine Pugh for Baltimore mayor in the past few days."
"But asked whether there could be one more coming — perhaps for Edwards, his fellow Marylander? — he shrugged and walked away."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/donna-edwards-congressional-black-caucus-chris-van-hollen-222169#ixzz46eHurbVy
A new Maryland poll shows Van Hollen with a 16 point lead.
"The Monmouth University Poll found a sharp racial divide in voter support. Van Hollen has an
overwhelming lead among white voters (73% to 16%), while Edwards has an almost equally large
advantage among black voters (62% to 26%). Men give Van Hollen a large lead over Edwards (60% to
26%), while women prefer him by a much more narrow margin (47% to 43%)."
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/e92b6e3e-96b0-401c-972f-1130cafd1370.pdf
So there is also a big gender gap. But what you notice is that Van Hollen's support among whites is even stronger than Edwards' among blacks.
As strong as her support is among AA voters, it was actually stronger in previous polls. So maybe the CBC's clear preferences they are telegraphing is having an effect.
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