I'm just finishing another great book by Mark Halperin, Game Change part 2. Double Down. It's about the 2012 Presidential race.
http://www.amazon.com/Double-Down-Game-Change-2012/dp/0143126008/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1457384836&sr=8-1&keywords=game+change+double+down
Game Change part 1, also by Halperin, was about the 2008 race.
http://www.amazon.com/Game-Change-Clintons-McCain-Lifetime-ebook/dp/B0033V4SDI/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1457384924&sr=1-1&keywords=game+change
What's clear is that to a large extent Obama's re-election was all about demographics. The Obama Coalition came out again. Particularly black voters, who for the first time in 2012, came out in larger numbers than other Americans.
The other parts of the OC-Latinos, women-especially single woman-and young people.
In the Hillary-Bernie primary we see this dynamic at work again. One big question going in is will the OC come out for Hillary? The answer is now clear after a number of Southern states: yes.
Black voters came out in very strong numbers for her the last few weeks. It's been amazing-in some states Bernie was beaten so bad you'd think he were a Republican-in Alabama he lost the AA vote 93-4.
Bernie has been spitting into the wind with his coalition. It's not the OC. It does attract large numbers of white millennials but AAs, Latinos, and women are with HRC.
In a way, Bernie's campaign is similar to Trump's. I don't mean that in terms of rhetoric, but in terms of the demographics each seeks.
Bernie has been claiming that he along can bring out turnout. But his focus is more on bringing back white independents and swing voters, etc.
The trouble is, the Dems strength going forward will be with the OC not white swing voters-there aren't as many of them as Urban Legend puts it.
Trump and Bernie are both about disaffected white voters, etc. But this is not the highest priority for Dems anymore.
"Despite the abundant evidence from Obama's victories proving that the U.S. population has fundamentally changed, many progressives and Democrats continue to waste millions of dollars chasing white swing voters. Explosive population growth of people of color in America over the past fifty years has laid the foundation for a New American Majority consisting of progressive people of color (23 percent of all eligible voters) and progressive whites (28 percent of all eligible voters). These two groups make up 51 percent of all eligible voters in America right now, and that majority is growing larger every day. Failing to properly appreciate this reality, progressives are at risk of missing this moment in history--and losing."
http://www.amazon.com/Brown-New-White-Demographic-Revolution/dp/1620971151/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1457385377&sr=1-1
When Bill Clinton was President, the Dems were obsessed with winning back white swing voters, independents, 'Reagan Democrats.' etc.
But demographics have changed such that the days when getting 39 percent of white voters would condemn the Dems to a losing 40 states and 400 electoral votes is long over. Obama won 39 percent of the white vote in 2012 and won in a near landslide win.
P.S. The other trouble with Bernie's base is that as Tad Stevens admitted in a Politico piece, these supporters are largely those unhappy with the Obama years where as the base wants to build on the successes of the Obama years.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/tad-devine-inside-bernie-sanders-campaign-220357?lo=ap_a1
http://www.amazon.com/Double-Down-Game-Change-2012/dp/0143126008/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1457384836&sr=8-1&keywords=game+change+double+down
Game Change part 1, also by Halperin, was about the 2008 race.
http://www.amazon.com/Game-Change-Clintons-McCain-Lifetime-ebook/dp/B0033V4SDI/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1457384924&sr=1-1&keywords=game+change
What's clear is that to a large extent Obama's re-election was all about demographics. The Obama Coalition came out again. Particularly black voters, who for the first time in 2012, came out in larger numbers than other Americans.
The other parts of the OC-Latinos, women-especially single woman-and young people.
In the Hillary-Bernie primary we see this dynamic at work again. One big question going in is will the OC come out for Hillary? The answer is now clear after a number of Southern states: yes.
Black voters came out in very strong numbers for her the last few weeks. It's been amazing-in some states Bernie was beaten so bad you'd think he were a Republican-in Alabama he lost the AA vote 93-4.
Bernie has been spitting into the wind with his coalition. It's not the OC. It does attract large numbers of white millennials but AAs, Latinos, and women are with HRC.
In a way, Bernie's campaign is similar to Trump's. I don't mean that in terms of rhetoric, but in terms of the demographics each seeks.
Bernie has been claiming that he along can bring out turnout. But his focus is more on bringing back white independents and swing voters, etc.
The trouble is, the Dems strength going forward will be with the OC not white swing voters-there aren't as many of them as Urban Legend puts it.
Trump and Bernie are both about disaffected white voters, etc. But this is not the highest priority for Dems anymore.
"Despite the abundant evidence from Obama's victories proving that the U.S. population has fundamentally changed, many progressives and Democrats continue to waste millions of dollars chasing white swing voters. Explosive population growth of people of color in America over the past fifty years has laid the foundation for a New American Majority consisting of progressive people of color (23 percent of all eligible voters) and progressive whites (28 percent of all eligible voters). These two groups make up 51 percent of all eligible voters in America right now, and that majority is growing larger every day. Failing to properly appreciate this reality, progressives are at risk of missing this moment in history--and losing."
http://www.amazon.com/Brown-New-White-Demographic-Revolution/dp/1620971151/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1457385377&sr=1-1
When Bill Clinton was President, the Dems were obsessed with winning back white swing voters, independents, 'Reagan Democrats.' etc.
But demographics have changed such that the days when getting 39 percent of white voters would condemn the Dems to a losing 40 states and 400 electoral votes is long over. Obama won 39 percent of the white vote in 2012 and won in a near landslide win.
P.S. The other trouble with Bernie's base is that as Tad Stevens admitted in a Politico piece, these supporters are largely those unhappy with the Obama years where as the base wants to build on the successes of the Obama years.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/tad-devine-inside-bernie-sanders-campaign-220357?lo=ap_a1
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