On the night Ted Cruz gained 64 delegates, Trump won 49, and Rubio was just at 13. This is just 4 ahead of John Kasich. These numbers are the latest at Huffington Post.
He finished in third, third, third, and fourth tonight.
As it stands, he's desperately campaigning to win his own state of Florida. If he loses, he's done, and right now he's losing by a lot.
How about Trump? This wasn't the best night for him, clearly, though I think the pundits are overstating the gloom and doom. FiveThirtyEight has become absurdly invested in his losing the nomination just so they can brag 'We told you all along the party decides.'
"Donald Trump — 2 out of 10. You could equivocate by saying Trump performs poorly in caucuses, and there aren’t all that many of them left, but the huge split in the election day versus early vote in Louisiana suggests that he’s encountering serious problems, perhaps the most serious since voting started on Feb. 1. It also appears as though Cruz will pick up more delegates than Trump did from the night."
"Marco Rubio — 1 out of 10. Just 17 percent of the vote in Kansas, 17 percent in Kentucky, 11 percent in Louisiana (with a huge drop-off from the early vote to election day votes) and 9 percent in Maine. Not. Good. He’ll presumably hang on until Florida on March 15 and a win there would still be a big deal, but he needs to gain votes to do that and right now he’s losing them instead."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/louisiana-kansas-kentucky-maine-primaries-presidential-election-2016/
It is absurd to say that Trump's night is just slightly less horrendous than Rubio's.
Rubio's campaign came into the night handing from a threat. With 155 delegates up for grabs, he got 13 so far-there are a few more up for grabs, though he won't get many more of them with his performance.
Trump it's true split the four states and didn't do as well as expected. But this was more that Cruz did better than he did worse. In Louisiana for instance, Trump averaged 43 percent in the RCP average and he got 41 percent, so that's pretty much in line.
Cruz polled at just 27 percent but got 37 percent in actual voting. So he outperformed more than Trump underperformed.
Again, these are caucuses which are Cruz's bread and butter.
As Trump says, everyone who attacks him falls down the drain. That is certainly true of Rubio lately.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/03/05/trump_so_far_everyone_who_has_attacked_me_has_gone_down.html
Finally, Ted Cruz is no idiot. He's not playing for any brokered convention.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/271875-cruz-brokered-convention-would-lead-to-voter-revolt
Why would he? He knows perfectly well that no way in hell does the Establishment pick him at a brokered convention.
P.S. The election odds have no flipped things, with Cruz up at 16 percent and Rubio down to 7 percent. After South Carolina, Cruz was at under 3 percent odds for weeks while Rubio was over 40 percent.
Truth be told a Hillary-Cruz race would be just as good as a Hillary-Trump race. I mean there are different issues. Trump would be more unpredictable but then his numbers with Latinos are such poison, she has huge demographic strength-just like she has against Bernie in the primary.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/another-lost-night-for-bernie.html
He finished in third, third, third, and fourth tonight.
As it stands, he's desperately campaigning to win his own state of Florida. If he loses, he's done, and right now he's losing by a lot.
How about Trump? This wasn't the best night for him, clearly, though I think the pundits are overstating the gloom and doom. FiveThirtyEight has become absurdly invested in his losing the nomination just so they can brag 'We told you all along the party decides.'
"Donald Trump — 2 out of 10. You could equivocate by saying Trump performs poorly in caucuses, and there aren’t all that many of them left, but the huge split in the election day versus early vote in Louisiana suggests that he’s encountering serious problems, perhaps the most serious since voting started on Feb. 1. It also appears as though Cruz will pick up more delegates than Trump did from the night."
"Marco Rubio — 1 out of 10. Just 17 percent of the vote in Kansas, 17 percent in Kentucky, 11 percent in Louisiana (with a huge drop-off from the early vote to election day votes) and 9 percent in Maine. Not. Good. He’ll presumably hang on until Florida on March 15 and a win there would still be a big deal, but he needs to gain votes to do that and right now he’s losing them instead."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/louisiana-kansas-kentucky-maine-primaries-presidential-election-2016/
It is absurd to say that Trump's night is just slightly less horrendous than Rubio's.
Rubio's campaign came into the night handing from a threat. With 155 delegates up for grabs, he got 13 so far-there are a few more up for grabs, though he won't get many more of them with his performance.
Trump it's true split the four states and didn't do as well as expected. But this was more that Cruz did better than he did worse. In Louisiana for instance, Trump averaged 43 percent in the RCP average and he got 41 percent, so that's pretty much in line.
Cruz polled at just 27 percent but got 37 percent in actual voting. So he outperformed more than Trump underperformed.
Again, these are caucuses which are Cruz's bread and butter.
As Trump says, everyone who attacks him falls down the drain. That is certainly true of Rubio lately.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/03/05/trump_so_far_everyone_who_has_attacked_me_has_gone_down.html
Finally, Ted Cruz is no idiot. He's not playing for any brokered convention.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/271875-cruz-brokered-convention-would-lead-to-voter-revolt
Why would he? He knows perfectly well that no way in hell does the Establishment pick him at a brokered convention.
P.S. The election odds have no flipped things, with Cruz up at 16 percent and Rubio down to 7 percent. After South Carolina, Cruz was at under 3 percent odds for weeks while Rubio was over 40 percent.
Truth be told a Hillary-Cruz race would be just as good as a Hillary-Trump race. I mean there are different issues. Trump would be more unpredictable but then his numbers with Latinos are such poison, she has huge demographic strength-just like she has against Bernie in the primary.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/another-lost-night-for-bernie.html
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