The good news is he finally won a state-Minnesota.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Still, he in most other states he finished in third-usually to Trump and Cruz, though in Vermont and Massachusetts it was to Trump and Kasich. Will Jordan kindly tabulated the results at the point he compiled it:
Trump:1,1,1,1,3,2,1,2,1,1
Cruz:2,2,2,4,2,1,2,1,4,3
Rubio:3,3,3,3,1,3,3,3,3,2
Carson:4,4,4,5,4,4,4,5,5,5
Kasich:5,5,5,2,5,5,5,4,2,4
https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/704870288916353024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
What's more he fell behind the 20 percent threshold-many Southern states have these:
"The New York Times’ Upshot tool, which projects each candidate’s Super Tuesday delegate tally, may be underestimating Cruz’s eventual delegate margin over Rubio. Right now, it forecasts that Cruz will win about 50 to 60 more delegates than Rubio. I think that may be low-balling the magnitude of Rubio’s challenge after this evening"
"Think about Texas for a second. If Cruz is winning most congressional districts and Rubio falls short of the state’s 20 percent threshold, Cruz will likely win about 90 more delegates than Rubio in Texas alone, thanks to its district allocation rules. But then, consider that Cruz is also out-polling Rubio for second place in a vast majority of other congressional districts in the South. That means Trump will be winning two delegates from most Southern districts, while Cruz will be winning one, and Rubio will be winning zero."
"Altogether, that could push Cruz’s differential over Rubio well above 100 delegates, perhaps close to 125. And Rubio’s strong performances in Minnesota and Virginia may not be enough to offset his failure to hit thresholds in states like Texas, Tennessee and Alabama, if current vote returns hold. If Rubio is that far behind Cruz in the count, it would bode extremely poorly for his chances of maintaining his status as the leading alternative to Trump."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/
Rubio was almost hit with a trifecta as it was reported that Rick Scott was endorsing Trump. Rubio's own Governor endorsing Trump. But for now that report has been pulled back.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/rick-scott-to-endorse-donald-trump
But if you have any doubt that tonight was bad for Rubio, see his odds in the betting pools now. He was at 19 percent at the start. Now he's down to 9.3 percent.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Still, he in most other states he finished in third-usually to Trump and Cruz, though in Vermont and Massachusetts it was to Trump and Kasich. Will Jordan kindly tabulated the results at the point he compiled it:
Trump:1,1,1,1,3,2,1,2,1,1
Cruz:2,2,2,4,2,1,2,1,4,3
Rubio:3,3,3,3,1,3,3,3,3,2
Carson:4,4,4,5,4,4,4,5,5,5
Kasich:5,5,5,2,5,5,5,4,2,4
https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/704870288916353024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
What's more he fell behind the 20 percent threshold-many Southern states have these:
"The New York Times’ Upshot tool, which projects each candidate’s Super Tuesday delegate tally, may be underestimating Cruz’s eventual delegate margin over Rubio. Right now, it forecasts that Cruz will win about 50 to 60 more delegates than Rubio. I think that may be low-balling the magnitude of Rubio’s challenge after this evening"
"Think about Texas for a second. If Cruz is winning most congressional districts and Rubio falls short of the state’s 20 percent threshold, Cruz will likely win about 90 more delegates than Rubio in Texas alone, thanks to its district allocation rules. But then, consider that Cruz is also out-polling Rubio for second place in a vast majority of other congressional districts in the South. That means Trump will be winning two delegates from most Southern districts, while Cruz will be winning one, and Rubio will be winning zero."
"Altogether, that could push Cruz’s differential over Rubio well above 100 delegates, perhaps close to 125. And Rubio’s strong performances in Minnesota and Virginia may not be enough to offset his failure to hit thresholds in states like Texas, Tennessee and Alabama, if current vote returns hold. If Rubio is that far behind Cruz in the count, it would bode extremely poorly for his chances of maintaining his status as the leading alternative to Trump."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/
Rubio was almost hit with a trifecta as it was reported that Rick Scott was endorsing Trump. Rubio's own Governor endorsing Trump. But for now that report has been pulled back.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/rick-scott-to-endorse-donald-trump
But if you have any doubt that tonight was bad for Rubio, see his odds in the betting pools now. He was at 19 percent at the start. Now he's down to 9.3 percent.
Mike, interesting summary. TheResurgent has called for Rubio to drop out: today. Jennifer Rubin (Rubio's biggest booster) wrote a piece called "Rubio falls short."
ReplyDeleteBut the thing that REALLY made me smile, was this one from Jennifer:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/03/01/republicans-get-used-to-hearing-hillary-clinton/
I told you Jennifer would end up pivoting to Hillary. She's not there yet, but I'll take that as her testing the ground, so to speak.
Probably the only people (with a shot) she despises more than Hillary are Trump and Cruz... because it goes w/o saying she despises Chris Christie more than any other human being! Lol.
She's been a booster of Erickson's #NeverTrump... but with no mention of Cruz. If #NeverTrump means Cruz, you can probably count her out. Well that was a short lived "alliance." Lol!
DeleteSomething seems wrong with your rankings... Cruz won Alaska too didn't he? So he should have three 1s. ... Oh, that probably came in after you wrote this I guess. So add another 1 for Cruz, another 2 for Trump and another 3 for Rubio, another 4 for Carson and another 5 for Kasich.
ReplyDeleteLOL. They were actually Will Jordan's rankings. As the night wasn't over they were obviously subject to change.
DeleteKind of reinforces the idea that Rubio had another third place win.
Well, hopefully the GOP primary fight is long and drawn out and wastes lots of billionaires millions, and ends up with Trump on top, but so damaged, crawling across the finish line (with all the negative adds he's going to be clobbered with) that Hillary just has to take the point of her high heel, and push it on fat orange head, and pop it open to let the hot gas out.
ReplyDeleteThe one trouble is that the GOP primary is more built for getting a quick winner than the Democratic primary with our proportional races.
DeleteOn March 15 there will be a bunch of winner take all states.
Bernie is talking about milking this till June. They key is that many Dems will start demanding he shut it down-as he can' win and is only helping Trump