2016 Will Affirm the Power of Demographics

There have been some comparisons made between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.

1. Both are relentlessly anti free trade.

Krugman asks if this is a protectionist moment in politics.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/03/09/a-protectionist-moment/?module=BlogPost-ReadMore&version=Blog%20Main&action=Click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body&_r=0#more-39637

2. Both inveigh against money in politics. Bernie brags all day about small donations.

3. Ironically, it's billionaire Trump who has spent the least money. Bernie actually has risen lots of it-though is spending it as fast as he raises it.

4. And finally, both have a base of support that is mostly white voters.

True Bernie isn't appealing to white fear nakedly like Trump is but nevertheless his base of support is white. Alan Abromawtiz has an interesting model which shows that

1. Bernie does better the whiter a state is

2. The further North it is.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/03/10/fundamentals-polls-and-the-primary/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body

What is saving Hillary-and by next Tuesday, she will have roughly at least 1700 delegates-which is over 70 percent of the 2382 needed-are demographics.

This is the point of that important book Brown is the New White.  

http://www.amazon.com/Brown-New-White-Demographic-Revolution-ebook/dp/B017QL9B78/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1457385377&sr=1-1

Take Latinos. According to a recent poll, Hillary leads Bernie among Latinos nationally 57-28. One point about the old tape of Bernie sending Castro some love, is that the world socialism may have a particularly bad connotation with many American Latinos as they recall banana republics down South.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/poll-hispanics-2016-trump-219763

Meanwhile she leads Trump 73-15.

This is the rejoinder to those who are already pushing the panic button about how Trump could be real trouble for Hillary. I'm sure we will hear about her emails and maybe even Monica Lewinsky every day.

But those numbers among Latinos. I mean there is nothing else to say. Hillary is going to be President and largely due to her support among non white and female voters.

Both Trump and Bernie are actually bids for the kinds of voters Democrats used to worry about. White swing voters,

Steve Phillips-author of Brown is the New White-argues against this myopia:

"Despite the abundant evidence from Obama's victories proving that the U.S. population has fundamentally changed, many progressives and Democrats continue to waste millions of dollars chasing white swing voters. Explosive population growth of people of color in America over the past fifty years has laid the foundation for a New American Majority consisting of progressive people of color (23 percent of all eligible voters) and progressive whites (28 percent of all eligible voters). These two groups make up51 percent of all eligible voters in America right now, and that majority is growing larger every day. Failing to properly appreciate this reality, progressives are at risk of missing this moment in history--and losing."

The key thing for her is she needs to understand exactly who her base is and who it's not. In her husband's time, it made sense to fret over white swing voters as whites were a higher percentage of the voting population. 

As this has shifted, politics has shifted. As long as she keeps this in mind she will be fine. 

I know she gets it in the election. My point is this is something she needs to be mindful in terms of governing as well when she gets to the White House. 

My guess is she may well have a Latino VP-quite possibly Julian Castro.