It won't be long now for Nate Silver, Harry Enten and the rest of the believers in the GOP Establishment over at FiveThirtyEight who continue to pretend that this GOP primary is the same as any other primary. Remember when they kept trying to compare Trump to Herman Cain?
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/01/harry-enten-says-trumps-doomed-because.html
"More than half of Donald Trump’s supporters say they are strongly committed to voting for him, according to the results of the latest NBC News/SurveyMonkey online tracking poll released Tuesday, the first national poll of 2016."
"Overall, the Manhattan mogul commanded the support of 35 percent of the Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters who were surveyed over the past week, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz came in second place with 18 percent support."
"Florida Sen. Marco Rubio earned 13 percent, followed by 9 percent for Ben Carson, 6 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 4 percent for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and 3 percent for Carly Fiorina, according to the full results shared first on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”
"Among those pledging their allegiance to Trump, 51 percent said they would “absolutely” vote for him, while 33 percent indicated a “large chance.” Meanwhile, just 14 percent said the odds were merely 50-50, and only 2 percent said there was little chance they would support him. By comparison, 36 percent of Cruz voters indicated absolute loyalty, with 49 percent saying there is a greater chance, while just 26 percent of Rubio voters said they would “absolutely” vote for their candidate and 49 percent again saying there is a large likelihood that they would."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/trump-leads-poll-2016-217349#ixzz3wNJ0bRTZ
Yet his numbers have not been any kind of boomlet.' The latest from Enten is that Trump is in trouble because of his high national numbers. It's not just that these numbers aren't predictive, they are negatively predictive.
For months Nate was telling us that the voters aren't really going to get serious until January. Well it's January 5.
"Overall, the Manhattan mogul commanded the support of 35 percent of the Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters who were surveyed over the past week, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz came in second place with 18 percent support."
"Florida Sen. Marco Rubio earned 13 percent, followed by 9 percent for Ben Carson, 6 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 4 percent for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and 3 percent for Carly Fiorina, according to the full results shared first on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”
"Among those pledging their allegiance to Trump, 51 percent said they would “absolutely” vote for him, while 33 percent indicated a “large chance.” Meanwhile, just 14 percent said the odds were merely 50-50, and only 2 percent said there was little chance they would support him. By comparison, 36 percent of Cruz voters indicated absolute loyalty, with 49 percent saying there is a greater chance, while just 26 percent of Rubio voters said they would “absolutely” vote for their candidate and 49 percent again saying there is a large likelihood that they would."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/trump-leads-poll-2016-217349#ixzz3wNJ0bRTZ
I'm sure Enten will tell us that the more voters who say they have definitely decided for a candidate, the more definite it is that this candidate won't win. There really isn't much time now. It's January 5 and the Iowa primary is February 1-the NH primary is February 9.
http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/
There isn't a whole lot of time for the GOP voters to get serious and vote for Marco Rubio.
http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/
There isn't a whole lot of time for the GOP voters to get serious and vote for Marco Rubio.
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