Monday, January 25, 2016

Bernie Goes Donald Trump on Stump

Bernie knows no more about political science than he knows about policy or governing. If he did he wouldn't keep bragging about general election polls in January. 

Yet he talks about absurd polls which show him up by 20 in the general, evidently not realizing that these are as meaningful as trying to pay your grocery bills in monopoly money. 

Overall, we've seen an invasion of the cherrypicked polls in recent weeks that clearly are meant to put Hillary in the worst light. 

If you believe the selective polls shown in the media, you'd believe that she is way down in NH and behind in Iowa. 

In fact she is up in Iowa and it's still close in NH. But the beauty of it is that if she wins in Iowa now-as she is the underdog according to the Hillary hating press-this may well be such a shock that she could even steal NH as well. 

If you're betting the likelihood is she wins Iowa but he wins NH. But momentum could shift this. 

Meanwhile, I've noticed that in the national polls while RCP has her up by 13, there are a whole bunch of more recent polls that they haven't included in their tracker-while these same polls have made it to the Huff Pollster tracker. 

There are five more polls in the Huff Pollster that show her with much bigger leads than just 13 nationally.

So her lead nationally may well be bigger too. 

But this is a feature not a bug for Team Hillary. You always want to manage expectations. Yes, the Beltway never tires of razzing her 'What happened to inevitability/'-but if you're the Clinton campaign, you're goal is to lower expectations and also get your supporters less complacent. 

In December even I was taking it easy figuring she had it. Now we Hillary supporters are much more mobilized. 

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