If you don't think Bernie's policy proposals are very realistic, wait to you listen to Goodman who seems to be Bernie's house political scientist. Or at least he makes lots of extremely optimistic predictions about Bernie's chances.
It makes you think of the days of 'proletarian science' and 'bourgeois science.' This seems to be 'proletariat political science.'
It isn't enough for him to claim Bernie will win the primary. He claims that he will literally win every state in a landslide-the same in the general.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/bernie-sanders-will-win-the-democratic-nomination-and-presidency-in-a-landslide_b_8968048.html
In a way this is good news for Hillary. She's such an overwhelming underdog now that she only has to win a single state and Goodman' is proven dead wrong.
I have argued that last few days that this is actually a good thing. Nate Silver has Hilary as having an 80 percent chance to win Iowa but the media has cherrypicked a couple of polls and decided that she is done there.
Indeed, Morning Joe is touting two absurd CNN polls which show her down by 27 in NH and 9 down in Iowa. Ok, so clearly Hillary is the underdog. Which is what you always want to do as a campaign-manage expectations.
Between Goodman and Morning Joe it's going to be a stunner after actual voting begins.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/bernie-sanders-will-dominate-super-tuesday-and-defeat-clinton-in-southern-states_b_9025190.html
So if Goodman thinks that Bernie will win all 50 states, he obviously thinks Bernie will win the South. So how does he do this as polls show him in huge deficits in the Southern states?
Certainly Goodman's answer is right-he needs to win over African-Americans. Goodman believes that AA will leave Hillary in the numbers they left her in 2008 for Obama. Because:
1. After all they left her in 2008 for Obama.
2. She has taken money from private prison lobbyists.
3. Her husband did the crime bill in the 90s.
I think it's clear 1 is pretty weak. Because something happened in 2008 doesn't mean it will happen again. Obama was a historical candidate and was black himself. It's true that HRC led him until Iowa and after he won AA went over to him. But this was based upon history and race.
Though the AA community has always loved the Clintons this was a chance to make history. When a rural, white state like Iowa went for him, AA felt they couldn't allow white folks to vote for him and black folks be what stopped him from winning.
"For more than 20 years, Bill and Hillary Clinton have engaged with black voters, black leaders, and black communities. They’re familiar. And when coupled with the role blacks play in the Democratic primary—stalwart voters who tend to support the safest choice—this adds up to a powerful advantage for Hillary. So much so that the only candidate to breach it—Barack Obama—had to run an almost flawless campaign, in addition to being black himself. Had Obama failed to build ties to the black political establishment—and had he failed to show his viability with wins among white Democrats—it’s not clear he would have overcome and reversed Clinton’s advantage with blacks."
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/01/hillary_clinton_s_ties_to_black_democrats_will_save_her_campaign_from_bernie.html
The prison lobbyists attack could be potent. But she did stop taking them in October. She has come out against private detention centers for illegal immigrants.
As for the crime bill, some historical perspective is needed. It came at ta time when we had very high rates of crime in large American cities and this was a response to that. I agree that in retrospect a number of its provisions would prove mistaken. But Clinton in putting the bill together did work with many black leaders like Al Sharpton who has pointed the same thing out.
But in this election Hillary has come out with a very strong policy agenda for ending mass incarceration of black men. She has also come up with some strong ideas for ending voter suppression-like same day voting.
As for the current problem of police brutality and excessive force she has won the endorsements of Trayvon Martin's mother as well as Eric Garner's mom and the mother of Jordan Davis.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/01/eric-garners-mom-endorses-hillary.html
These women who lost their sons to excessive police force trust Hillary as the one with both the will and the knowledge of how to change this.
Hillary's trust among AA is deep. Eric Dyson probably gave her as strong an endorsement as a white politician courting the black vote could ask for.
"Yes She Can. Why Hillary Clinton will do more for black people than Obama."
It makes you think of the days of 'proletarian science' and 'bourgeois science.' This seems to be 'proletariat political science.'
It isn't enough for him to claim Bernie will win the primary. He claims that he will literally win every state in a landslide-the same in the general.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/bernie-sanders-will-win-the-democratic-nomination-and-presidency-in-a-landslide_b_8968048.html
In a way this is good news for Hillary. She's such an overwhelming underdog now that she only has to win a single state and Goodman' is proven dead wrong.
I have argued that last few days that this is actually a good thing. Nate Silver has Hilary as having an 80 percent chance to win Iowa but the media has cherrypicked a couple of polls and decided that she is done there.
Indeed, Morning Joe is touting two absurd CNN polls which show her down by 27 in NH and 9 down in Iowa. Ok, so clearly Hillary is the underdog. Which is what you always want to do as a campaign-manage expectations.
Between Goodman and Morning Joe it's going to be a stunner after actual voting begins.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/bernie-sanders-will-dominate-super-tuesday-and-defeat-clinton-in-southern-states_b_9025190.html
So if Goodman thinks that Bernie will win all 50 states, he obviously thinks Bernie will win the South. So how does he do this as polls show him in huge deficits in the Southern states?
Certainly Goodman's answer is right-he needs to win over African-Americans. Goodman believes that AA will leave Hillary in the numbers they left her in 2008 for Obama. Because:
1. After all they left her in 2008 for Obama.
2. She has taken money from private prison lobbyists.
3. Her husband did the crime bill in the 90s.
I think it's clear 1 is pretty weak. Because something happened in 2008 doesn't mean it will happen again. Obama was a historical candidate and was black himself. It's true that HRC led him until Iowa and after he won AA went over to him. But this was based upon history and race.
Though the AA community has always loved the Clintons this was a chance to make history. When a rural, white state like Iowa went for him, AA felt they couldn't allow white folks to vote for him and black folks be what stopped him from winning.
"For more than 20 years, Bill and Hillary Clinton have engaged with black voters, black leaders, and black communities. They’re familiar. And when coupled with the role blacks play in the Democratic primary—stalwart voters who tend to support the safest choice—this adds up to a powerful advantage for Hillary. So much so that the only candidate to breach it—Barack Obama—had to run an almost flawless campaign, in addition to being black himself. Had Obama failed to build ties to the black political establishment—and had he failed to show his viability with wins among white Democrats—it’s not clear he would have overcome and reversed Clinton’s advantage with blacks."
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/01/hillary_clinton_s_ties_to_black_democrats_will_save_her_campaign_from_bernie.html
As for the crime bill, some historical perspective is needed. It came at ta time when we had very high rates of crime in large American cities and this was a response to that. I agree that in retrospect a number of its provisions would prove mistaken. But Clinton in putting the bill together did work with many black leaders like Al Sharpton who has pointed the same thing out.
But in this election Hillary has come out with a very strong policy agenda for ending mass incarceration of black men. She has also come up with some strong ideas for ending voter suppression-like same day voting.
As for the current problem of police brutality and excessive force she has won the endorsements of Trayvon Martin's mother as well as Eric Garner's mom and the mother of Jordan Davis.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/01/eric-garners-mom-endorses-hillary.html
These women who lost their sons to excessive police force trust Hillary as the one with both the will and the knowledge of how to change this.
Hillary's trust among AA is deep. Eric Dyson probably gave her as strong an endorsement as a white politician courting the black vote could ask for.
"Yes She Can. Why Hillary Clinton will do more for black people than Obama."
https://newrepublic.com/article/124391/yes-she-can
Obama before Iowa had met with black leaders and activists. Goodman expects Bernie in one month-as Super Tuesday is on March 1, make up a 50 point deficit among AAs and Latinos. It's not just Berrie's policies that are unrealistic.
Finally, everything we are hearing suggests that black voters are not in an aspirational mood this time. Joy Reid has said this.
Dyson:
"These emotions don’t make for political harmony. But clearly both Jackson, who invited her to his event, and everyone at the minister’s luncheon, had forgiven Clinton. And some were never really mad at her: A Gallup poll in August put her favorable rating among black people at 80 percent. But their calculations are also practical: They think she will win, and more important, that she should win. She waited her turn, the Republicans—even Carson—are impossible, and as Obama’s election proved, black folk are done with symbolic candidacies. Despite the appeal of Bernie Sanders’s economic platform, and his growing sensitivity on race, he is going to lose. They want no part of him."
https://newrepublic.com/article/124391/yes-she-can
According to Jamelle Bouie, the AA community is normally pragmatic in their presidential choice:
"For more than 20 years, Bill and Hillary Clinton have engaged with black voters, black leaders, and black communities. They’re familiar. And when coupled with the role blacks play in the Democratic primary—stalwart voters who tend to support the safest choice—this adds up to a powerful advantage for Hillary. So much so that the only candidate to breach it—Barack Obama—had to run an almost flawless campaign, in addition to being black himself. Had Obama failed to build ties to the black political establishment—and had he failed to show his viability with wins among white Democrats—it’s not clear he would have overcome and reversed Clinton’s advantage with blacks."
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/01/hillary_clinton_s_ties_to_black_democrats_will_save_her_campaign_from_bernie.html
"I suspect with the real issues facing the AA community right now-voting suppression, mass incarceration, police excessive force-they are going to go with the candidate they know well who is all about solving problems rather than giving inspirational speeches."
And of course his speeches aren't about these issues so much as the banks and campaign finance reform.
UPDATE: Paul Waldman also has a post on the 'pragmatism' of black voters.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/01/22/why-african-american-voters-may-doom-bernie-sanders-candidacy/
Obama before Iowa had met with black leaders and activists. Goodman expects Bernie in one month-as Super Tuesday is on March 1, make up a 50 point deficit among AAs and Latinos. It's not just Berrie's policies that are unrealistic.
Finally, everything we are hearing suggests that black voters are not in an aspirational mood this time. Joy Reid has said this.
Dyson:
"These emotions don’t make for political harmony. But clearly both Jackson, who invited her to his event, and everyone at the minister’s luncheon, had forgiven Clinton. And some were never really mad at her: A Gallup poll in August put her favorable rating among black people at 80 percent. But their calculations are also practical: They think she will win, and more important, that she should win. She waited her turn, the Republicans—even Carson—are impossible, and as Obama’s election proved, black folk are done with symbolic candidacies. Despite the appeal of Bernie Sanders’s economic platform, and his growing sensitivity on race, he is going to lose. They want no part of him."
https://newrepublic.com/article/124391/yes-she-can
According to Jamelle Bouie, the AA community is normally pragmatic in their presidential choice:
"For more than 20 years, Bill and Hillary Clinton have engaged with black voters, black leaders, and black communities. They’re familiar. And when coupled with the role blacks play in the Democratic primary—stalwart voters who tend to support the safest choice—this adds up to a powerful advantage for Hillary. So much so that the only candidate to breach it—Barack Obama—had to run an almost flawless campaign, in addition to being black himself. Had Obama failed to build ties to the black political establishment—and had he failed to show his viability with wins among white Democrats—it’s not clear he would have overcome and reversed Clinton’s advantage with blacks."
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/01/hillary_clinton_s_ties_to_black_democrats_will_save_her_campaign_from_bernie.html
"I suspect with the real issues facing the AA community right now-voting suppression, mass incarceration, police excessive force-they are going to go with the candidate they know well who is all about solving problems rather than giving inspirational speeches."
And of course his speeches aren't about these issues so much as the banks and campaign finance reform.
UPDATE: Paul Waldman also has a post on the 'pragmatism' of black voters.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/01/22/why-african-american-voters-may-doom-bernie-sanders-candidacy/
No comments:
Post a Comment