What is it With CNN Polls?

There were three Iowa polls for the Democrat race yesterday, one showed Bernie with an eight point lead, two showed HRC with a 9 point lead.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/

Which one do you figure is getting all the headlines?

What's interesting is that the poll that showed Bernie with an improbable 27 point lead in NH the other day was also CNN.

Chuck Todd last night again showed the media's bias, their desire to mess with Hillary at every turn did an interesting thing. 

CNN had another poll that now showed Trump up by 11 in Iowa. But even before Todd gave out this result he cautioned viewers that it's in all likelihood not accurate as it is an outlier. 

Now it''s true, the CNN poll made an absurdly highly assumption of who will show up at the Iowa Caucus. Notably, when CNN looked simply at those who were 2008 Iowa Caucus goers, Hillary is up 55-38 percent. 

But they did the same thing in the Democratic Iowa Caucus and when Todd got to that he didn't say anything about it being an outlier or questionable result. 

Yet you can argue CNN's Dem poll is much more dubious precisely because there were two other polls during the day that gave her the 9 point lead. 

In the GOP race, there was also an Emerson poll that showed Trump up 33-23. So the GOP result actually has a little more plausibility. The Dem Emerson poll shows Hillary up by 9. 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/

Speaking of Beltway bias against Hillary, it's fascinating to see what passed for 'nonpartisan' reporting from CNN correspondent Jeff Zeleny. when the subject is Hillary Clinton. 

Listen to his nonpartisan commentary:

"Today, @ HillaryClinton Was Fixated On @ BernieSanders. Why's Here: New CNN / ORC Poll Shows Sanders 51%, Clinton 43%, 4% O'Malley."

"In Iowa Now, @ HillaryClinton Is Throwing Kitchen Sink At @ BernieSanders -by-Name From Health Care To Foreign Policy. Teleprompter = TV ad soon."

" @ HillaryClinton 's Campaign may Now Be Riding On Iowahttp: // Cnn.it/1JgCFnK Via @ DanmericaCNN & @ Jeffzeleny "

https://twitter.com/jeffzeleny

Remember when CNN suspended that female correspondent just because she sympathized with Syrian refugees?

The idea that it could be one and done for her, that if she loses Iowa it's over is absurd, of course.

It's actually much closer to the truth for Bernie. Ironically the way the media has blown up a few outlier polls the last few weeks has almost made him the favorite now and her the underdog.

You could argue that this is optimum for her as expectations at least based on the media narrative are now so low.

Yet when the dust settles, she continues to lead in Iowa polling averages and Nate Silver still has her at about an 80 percent chance to win.

Starting with a Dec 14-17 poll, there have been 11 Iowa Dem polls, according to Silver's FirveThirtyEight.

Bernie has lead in three and only in yesterday's CNN poll was his lead above the margin for error.

Yet, many pundits make it sound like Bernie is the favorite in Iowa now. Yet you always want to manage expectations.

Now she can eke out a small win and this will be sort of shocking. Indeed, Bernie's campaign manager Jeff Weaver last night insisted Bernie is still the underdog in Iowa. But the media isn't listening.

Meanwhile what is not discussed at all is that HRC actually has a decent chance of winning NH.

It's true that Silver gives Bernie a 59 percent chance to win, but that is totally the result of that one outlier CNN poll that showed Bernie up by 27. Of course the media hasn't been qualifying that it's probably an outlier.

So this seems an awful lot like in late September when the media was going crazy with the emails, Biden talk, and a few polls that showed Bernie winning in Iowa-one had him with a 10 point lead-and he was leading in most NH polls.

Then she had her big debate performance in October and she suddenly had a big lead in Iowa and even lead in NH in a lot of polls.

You can argue that overall Bernie has underperformed in NH. Throw out the CNN poll and it's very tight-prior to it Nate Silver actually gave her the edge even there.

But the important point is that the media's cherrypicking polls and making her the underdog is actually exactly what a campaign would want.