I didn't see this debate as in any a seismic shift. Before the debate I had said we'd see how much action we'd get in the
1. Trump-Cruz lane
2. The Rubio-Christie-Jeb-Kasich lane
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/01/tonights-gop-cage-matchs-battle-lines.html
We had two big face offs in the outsider-or winners-lane.
A. Cruz pushes back at Trump on birtherism. I did think Cruz got a pretty good shot in by pointing out that Trump's mother was born in Scotland so according to the definition of some, even Trump wouldn't be eligible.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-cruz-birth-debate
I thought Trump hit back ok here-'But here's the difference: I was born her- but if anything this might help Cruz being to put the birther issue to bed for now.
Of course, after the show Laurence Tribe was back on Lawrence O'Donnell again. To be sure Cruz dismissed Tribe as a liberal in the tank for Hillary-though Trump pointed out he was also his own professor.
But Josh Marshall is right: Trump should have named someone else who isn't an obvious liberal pushing the birther line-there are plenty like the conservative guy who has both Rubio and Cruz in court right now.
B. But while that first exchange might have been advantage Cruz, he gave it away by trying to double down on 'NY values'-'If you weren't from NY you'd know what I mean.'
Trump had already responded earlier very effectively-'Anyone who attacks NY has to come through me'-and Cruz probably should have demurred when the moderators asked him about it.
Trump then hit this one out of the park:
"Trump Responds To Cruz's 'NY Values' Attack With Poignant 9/11 Reflection"
"Cruz wins a round, Rubio fades, Christie lives to fight another day.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/five-takeaways-from-the-gop-debate-217830#ixzz3xJBMPVYK
If that's true, terrific. As Trump Democrats, we want to see Rubio fade and Christie live to fight another day. Heck, we'd love to see Christie finish ahead of Rubio in the NH primary.
1. Trump-Cruz lane
2. The Rubio-Christie-Jeb-Kasich lane
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/01/tonights-gop-cage-matchs-battle-lines.html
We had two big face offs in the outsider-or winners-lane.
A. Cruz pushes back at Trump on birtherism. I did think Cruz got a pretty good shot in by pointing out that Trump's mother was born in Scotland so according to the definition of some, even Trump wouldn't be eligible.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-cruz-birth-debate
I thought Trump hit back ok here-'But here's the difference: I was born her- but if anything this might help Cruz being to put the birther issue to bed for now.
Of course, after the show Laurence Tribe was back on Lawrence O'Donnell again. To be sure Cruz dismissed Tribe as a liberal in the tank for Hillary-though Trump pointed out he was also his own professor.
But Josh Marshall is right: Trump should have named someone else who isn't an obvious liberal pushing the birther line-there are plenty like the conservative guy who has both Rubio and Cruz in court right now.
B. But while that first exchange might have been advantage Cruz, he gave it away by trying to double down on 'NY values'-'If you weren't from NY you'd know what I mean.'
Trump had already responded earlier very effectively-'Anyone who attacks NY has to come through me'-and Cruz probably should have demurred when the moderators asked him about it.
Trump then hit this one out of the park:
"Trump Responds To Cruz's 'NY Values' Attack With Poignant 9/11 Reflection"
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-9-11-cruz-new-york-values
Before Trump was even done with his NY speech Cruz himself was clapping.
2. The Rubio-Jeb-Christie-Kasich lane.
There were a few good skirmishes here. There was a lively one with Rubio and Christie over Rubio's attack ad on Christie that sets him up as a liberal. Christie came back at him pretty strong there-Josh Marshall said it made Rubio look foolish.
Indeed, I like the verdict about Rubio Politico gives:
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/five-takeaways-from-the-gop-debate-217830#ixzz3xJBMPVYK
If that's true, terrific. As Trump Democrats, we want to see Rubio fade and Christie live to fight another day. Heck, we'd love to see Christie finish ahead of Rubio in the NH primary.
Here is the FiveThirtyEight NH GOP predictions.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-republican/
Nate and friends do have Rubio ranked first amongst the Establishment Four but even so, collectively there is a better chance that someone not Rubio wins than Rubio himself among the Establishment lane.
What was hilarious was when Jeb tried to call out Trump on quotas. The optics are just terrible. Jeb always sounds so schoolmarmish and indignant when he tries to call out Trump.
"When Trump blasted China – a populist no-brainer for core GOP voters – and promised to impose tariffs to combat Beijing trade manipulation, Bush responded with a fact-based (and politically unappealing) counter-argument: “There will be retaliation,” he said, relating the nearly-unanimous opinion of policy makers on both sides of the aisle that Beijing would strike back with equally painful sanctions. He even pointed out that soybean production in Iowa would be devastated by a retaliatory Chinese boycott."
“You need someone with a steady hand,” Bush said to Trump.
He was right – no president could realistically impose the policy -- and he was supported by Cruz in that assertion.
But Trump won the exchange with a face-punch, not boring talk of real-world governance: “We don’t need weakness,” he said, to the usual guffaws and applause.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/five-takeaways-from-the-gop-debate-217830#ixzz3xJDz1xMa
Calling Jeb weak to his face. Where do you go from here if you're Jeb?
I have not mentioned Kasich and there's reason for that. He didn't have much to say. Seeing how bad things used to go when he tried to call out Trump, it's just as well.
There's even less to say about Ben Carson. He did have a cute line when he said his name was mentioned and so he interjected himself. It was pointed out that no one said Carson and he responded that they had said 'everyone' though.
Nate Silver's analysis seems to confirm my overall take: that nothing too much changed when the smoke clears.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gop-primary-in-one-debate/
This was good news for those who are doing well and bad news to those who aren't.
If anything this might have taken Cruz off his back foot on the birtherism-if so, then Silver is right in grading him a B+ and Trump just a B-though Laurence Tribe is doing everything he can to keep it front and center. LOL.
Trouble is, Cruz can just dismiss him as a 'Harvard liberal'-who just happened to be Cruz's won law school teacher. We'll see if Trump can find a non-liberal to keep this going.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-republican/
Nate and friends do have Rubio ranked first amongst the Establishment Four but even so, collectively there is a better chance that someone not Rubio wins than Rubio himself among the Establishment lane.
What was hilarious was when Jeb tried to call out Trump on quotas. The optics are just terrible. Jeb always sounds so schoolmarmish and indignant when he tries to call out Trump.
"When Trump blasted China – a populist no-brainer for core GOP voters – and promised to impose tariffs to combat Beijing trade manipulation, Bush responded with a fact-based (and politically unappealing) counter-argument: “There will be retaliation,” he said, relating the nearly-unanimous opinion of policy makers on both sides of the aisle that Beijing would strike back with equally painful sanctions. He even pointed out that soybean production in Iowa would be devastated by a retaliatory Chinese boycott."
“You need someone with a steady hand,” Bush said to Trump.
He was right – no president could realistically impose the policy -- and he was supported by Cruz in that assertion.
But Trump won the exchange with a face-punch, not boring talk of real-world governance: “We don’t need weakness,” he said, to the usual guffaws and applause.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/five-takeaways-from-the-gop-debate-217830#ixzz3xJDz1xMa
Calling Jeb weak to his face. Where do you go from here if you're Jeb?
I have not mentioned Kasich and there's reason for that. He didn't have much to say. Seeing how bad things used to go when he tried to call out Trump, it's just as well.
There's even less to say about Ben Carson. He did have a cute line when he said his name was mentioned and so he interjected himself. It was pointed out that no one said Carson and he responded that they had said 'everyone' though.
Nate Silver's analysis seems to confirm my overall take: that nothing too much changed when the smoke clears.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gop-primary-in-one-debate/
This was good news for those who are doing well and bad news to those who aren't.
If anything this might have taken Cruz off his back foot on the birtherism-if so, then Silver is right in grading him a B+ and Trump just a B-though Laurence Tribe is doing everything he can to keep it front and center. LOL.
Trouble is, Cruz can just dismiss him as a 'Harvard liberal'-who just happened to be Cruz's won law school teacher. We'll see if Trump can find a non-liberal to keep this going.
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