On Thursday there were three Iowa polls. One showed Bernie up by 8-CNN. Two other ones showed her up by 9. Guess which one got all the coverage?
On Friday another Iowa poll showed her up by 29. That got zero coverage.
There was yet another CNN poll of NH earlier in the week which showed her down to Bernie by 27. The Beltway couldn't stop talking about it with little effort to point out that it's likely a big outlier-totally at variance with the other NH polls we've seen.
The reality is that she is likely trailing in NH but not by as much as the Morning Joes of the world are making it seem. According to Nate Silver Bernie has a 57 percent chance of winning NH-hardly a lock. And even that is sort of inflated as she was the favorite prior to the NH poll.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-democratic/
Yet to listen to the Hillary hating Beltway press, you'd think she has no chance in NH.
In Iowa she actually has a 85 percent chance according to Nate.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/
Yet the narrative in the media is that she is in trouble in Iowa. Basically, to listen to the media you'd think that:
1. She has no chance in NH
2. Is getting rather desperate in Iowa.
But the numbers don't bear this out.
However, you get the idea that the Hillary campaign isn't so upset about this. They like the cherrypicked polls as you rationally want to manage expectations.
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/iowa-and-new-hampshire-are-just-a-sideshow-hillary-clinton-is-set-for-super-tuesday-sweep/23641/
Now, if she ekes out a 2 point win in Iowa it will seem like a 20 point win. This could give her a jolt of momentum and she could steal one in NH.
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