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Thursday, January 21, 2016

Take Heart Hillary Lovers: This is not 2008

There has been a debate recently about who is the true heir of Obama-Bernie or Hillary?

http://www.vox.com/2016/1/20/10796134/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-obama

In my view it's not even a question: it's Hilary Clinton. She is running on preserving, consolidating, and building on the Obama legacy.

Beyond that she was his Secretary of State so her fingerprints are all over his policy and it's not exactly a well kept secret that he wants and needs her to win-to buttress her legacy.

Joe Biden, perhaps realizing that many Democrats like me literally could no longer stand the sight of him after he seemed to throw her under the bus last week in claiming she is new to economic inequality redeemed himself a little yesterday by pointing out that we the Democratic party is one thing and socialism is another.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/01/joe-biiden-redeems-himself-and-calls.html

Maybe he's finally figured out that trashing Hillary is trashing POTUS" agenda. However, there is a way in which you could argue that Bernie is like Obama.

In terms of how Obama has governed, Hillary is his heir, but in terms of how he campaigned-'yes we can'-you could argue that his campaign was more like Bernie's even if his actual Administration is more like how a Hillary Administration would look.

But the comparisons between 2008 are far from perfect. Ironically, Hillary's weakness in 2008 is now her strength-African-American voters.

What as aspirational about Obama was his race rather than any particular policy. Eric Dyson argues that black folks had their big symbolic vote in 2008 and now they are hard headed pragmatists ready to go all in for Hillary.

https://newrepublic.com/article/124391/yes-she-can

Indeed, that's about as strong an endorsement as Hillary can get from such a prominent African-American figure.

"Yes She Can. Why Hillary Clinton will do more for black people than Obama"

Let's face it, if you're a white politician that's a dream endorsement. Joy Reid has also suggested that black folks are over the aspirational thing. 

The folks that are in the aspirational mood this time are white liberals. These are the Emoprogs-the firebaggers-that have just fulminated against President Obama for years. 

It's fitting that the only prominent African-American in Bernie's pocket is Cornell West. 

Beyond this, Obama was clearly a real liberal Democrat not a 'democratic socialist.' 

While then like now Hillary was my first choice I could see that Obama was very qualified to be President. He was a pragmatist-which is how you get things done in the tough task of governing. 

The Establishment might have chosen Hillary but it was far from unanimous. Many rank and file Democrats were also impressed with Obama. 

It's different with Bernie. If he's on the ticket a lot of folks will never get behind him. I don't know that I can. 

Yes, the GOP Establishment can't stop Trump. But the GOP Establishment is a lot weaker than the Dems. HRC has the support of 460 prominent Democrats. In the GOP, the endorsements are divided six ways between Rubio, Jeb, Christie, Kaisch, and Mike Huckabee for a total of 120. Most haven't chosen even now. 

How does the Establishment decide if it can't make up it's mind?

But you want the best thing for Hillary? Everyone is now pronouncing her the underdog and this is when she does best. 

You now have Bernie cultists claiming that Bernie will win all 50 states in the primary and the general. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/bernie-sanders-will-win-the-democratic-nomination-and-presidency-in-a-landslide_b_8968048.html

Morning Joe is now trumpeting that outlier poll that has Bernie up by 27 points in NH. 

Which makes Hillary the underdog. This is when she's at her best. The Hillary hating Beltway piles on so hard when ever she gets any bad news that they kind of create a springboard mechanism for when their dire predictions are false. 

Once the primary starts and it becomes clear she's not losing 60-33 percent it will be the comeback story of the year. 


1 comment:

  1. Mike, I think you're right: not 2008 this time around. Maybe I'm complacent, but I'm not worried at all that HRC won't get the nomination. And I'll skip voting for Trump in the primary and vote for her instead if I have to, but I'm not worried at this point that it will come to that. (I can't even recall how our ballots work here now: I'm pretty sure I can vote in either primary).

    O/T: Sorry for all the OTs, but had to share my brief exchange with E. Harding (a Trump guy... not a Trump dem, but a real Trump supporter). I listed off the ideal characteristics for a 3rd, presumably center-right party. Harding responded that he agreed with the 1st two items, but not the rest. Ha!... So, he's pro-emotionalism, clown and internet rumor? Amazing.

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