Monday, August 1, 2016

Hillary Gets Bigger Bounce Than Trump

She not only has gotten a convention bounce, but is better off than where she was previous to the start of both conventions.

"In all polls so far, Clinton's improved relative to the pre-convention version of the polls. IOW, she's gotten a larger bump than Trump..."

"...and possibly also made up some of the ground she lost in July. Question is, can she sustain this for a few weeks? Or is it temporary?"

The ground she lost in July was probably due to James Comey's questionable decision to politicize his investigation by saying 'What she did was not illegal but extremely careless.'

A number of experts argue he should never have said that.

In any case she is making up some lost ground now, and her approval rating is up now in three straight polls.

"The former secretary of state leads her Republican opponent Donald Trump by seven percentage points, 46 percent to 39 percent, in a fresh CBS News national poll. Clinton’s seven-point lead comes just one week after last week’s poll, in which she and Trump were tied at 42. Since then, Clinton’s support among poll respondents grew by four points while Trump’s dropped by three."

"The Democratic convention also offered Clinton a substantial bounce to her favorability numbers: The number of respondents who said they had positive views of Clinton climbed to 36 percent from 31 percent a week ago. Similarly, the number of respondents who said they viewed the former secretary of state unfavorably dropped six points, from 56 percent to 50 percent, in the wake of the Philadelphia convention."

"More than half of those who responded to the poll said they hold an unfavorable opinion of Trump, while just 31 percent said they view him favorably, down three points from his own post-convention bounce a week ago."

Read more:

Meanwhile her support among Berners is up 6.

"CBS post-conventions poll: proportion of Sanders voters backing Clinton rises 6 points to 73%."

Huffpollster now has her up by 5 points in the average: 47-42.

"In three post DNC convention polls she is at -6, -12, -14 in approval rating: obviously still upside down but considerably better than before."

In three post DNC polls Trump is at -22, -18,-21.

Some some early good news. Let's see what the later polls show.

As for Trump, his attack on Khzir Khan might well put more downward pressure on his numbers.

He's digging in now for the fourth straight day.

Jeff Weaver thinks that Hillary needs to be angrier.

With all due respect to Weaver-I know he likes his guy and believes in him but-Hillary did manage to win the election by 4 million votes and double digits.

I think her strategy is the right one. Hope normally wins. You can argue that this is an unusual year, but what about 1989 in Argentina? Jennifer Rubin talked recently about how even in a race vs. an incompetent dictator like Pinochet the opposition only won when they got more positive.

"The Republicans made exactly this same mistake in 2012: People think we are on the wrong track, so — poof ! — Mitt Romney wins. Maybe Trump will do it more successfully this time. However, painting Clinton as a fuddy-duddy does not strike me as a smart move. Over the past few days Democrats, but more importantly Trump himself, convinced many voters, we suspect, that he is a menace to our national security and national identity as a diverse, democratic people. Republicans who do not appreciate this — and the horror that many Republicans feel — are kidding themselves about the damage the GOP is doing to itself defending this guy."

"There is an interesting comparison captured in a superb film released a few years ago, “NO.” In Chile in 1988, Augusto Pinochet staged a referendum on his rule. Opponents who had suffered economic deprivation and repression soon realized that they could not defeat Pinochet by telling voters how horrible everything was. Instead, they “sold” happiness and optimism, showing how Chileans could be unified and confident with the promise of a better life after Pinochet. (As Elliott Abrams recounted, “The NO campaign used funny, light-hearted, bright ads with words and music broadly suggesting that a new day was coming.”) It worked, and the Chilean military — bucked up by the United States — insisted that the democratic vote stand. The anti-Pinochet forces would not have won with a depressing vision of their country even in the midst of despotic, ineffective rule."

So I think that Hillary's allegedly 'cautious' approach makes a lot of sense in this race.

"Clinton’s defining trait as a politician is her cautiousness. She doesn’t leap before she looks. Ever. Her selection of Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) as her vice presidential running mate — and reporting that suggests Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack finished second in the veepstakes — makes clear that Clinton isn’t going to take any major risks in the coming days of the campaign."

"What that caution reflects is a belief — never stated publicly — among Clinton and her senior aides that if she does the basic blocking and tackling in swing states, makes no major mistakes and just keeps letting Trump talk, she wins. Based on the electoral map and Trump’s demographic problems with Hispanic voters, that looks like a smart strategy today."

Don't make it tougher than it is. Take the layup if Trump is just going to not guard the post on every drive-as he clearly is not. 
A VP Warren would have made this much more an ideological fight. Then you hit into indies, or moderate GOPers that don't like what she stands for. 
Yes, she has a lot of devoted followers but she would polarize the other way too. 

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