Like Bernie Sanders, he has no path to victory and all he can hope now is that Trump doesn't get the 1024 delegates he needs and then hopefully somehow pull a royal flush as the convention.
“It's fair to say that Rubio’s path to 1,237 is shot,” Dave Wasserman, an analyst with the Cook Political Report who closely tracks the delegate race, said of the threshold to secure the nomination.
“There’s virtually no chance for Marco Rubio to get to a majority prior to the convention,” said John Yob, who served as a top delegate strategist for Rick Santorum in 2012 and John McCain in 2008.
"Even inside the Rubio orbit, there has been an acknowledgement that as long as Ted Cruz (and John Kasich) stay in the race, they have virtually zero mathematical chance of securing the nomination. Asked directly by Fox’s Megyn Kelly on Wednesday night if it was now “mathematically impossible” for him to be the nominee, Rubio dodged."
“I think you can make that argument for virtually everyone in this race at this point,” Rubio said, save Trump.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/marco-rubio-2016-path-220190#ixzz41sGtm2rl
This is what the entire Establishment is playing for was Romney's morning speech makes clear. Nobody is now playing to win but simply to sabotage Trump. Talk about inspiring.
"At a briefing for donors and bundlers held Tuesday at the campaign’s Washington, D.C., headquarters, campaign manager Terry Sullivan focused heavily on Rubio’s delegate-gathering convention scenarios, to the dismay of some supporters."
“That’s like drawing a 3-card and hoping people are going to bust along the way,” said one Rubio fundraiser, who attended and was disappointed with the presentation. “It usually doesn’t play out that way.”
"Team Rubio’s strategy shift to deny Trump delegates will play out both in his campaign schedule and on the airwaves in the coming days and weeks."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/marco-rubio-2016-path-220190#ixzz41sHL6xt0
So what is his strategy going forward? It's 'multi pronged' alright:
1. Throw all his chips into winning Florida.
2. That's all. Ok, so maybe it's not so multi-pronged.
"Starting this weekend, Rubio plans to burrow almost continuously in Florida, campaigning there “virtually every day” until March 15, according to a senior adviser, to ensure he secures its 99 delegates. The campaign is writing off Ohio and its 66 winner-take-all delegates entirely, in hopes that Gov. Kasich, who the Rubio campaign had previously tried to nudge out of the race, can prevent Trump from carrying his home state."
“As long as Kasich is in the race, Cruz and Marco are not going to win Ohio,” the senior Rubio adviser said.
"Meanwhile, Rubio’s super PAC, flush with as much as $20 million in fresh cash, has yet to buy any ads in Ohio and is not expected to do so in the future. Instead, it is currently invested in Florida and four of the earlier voting states that divide delegates proportionally."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/marco-rubio-2016-path-220190#ixzz41sHwqdTs
So if he loses Florida, that's it. And Rubio who is bailing on his state after one inauspicious term certainly doesn't lack for detractors in the state as Trump has already pointed out.
"Why would the great people of Florida vote for a guy who, as a Senator, never even shows up to vote - worst record. Marco Rubio is a joke!"
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/705357122859614209
Rubio is about as popular in Florida as Christie is in New Jersey.
And apparently Trump is planning to spend some actual money in Florida which is smart. If he can hold onto his lead there, this is pretty much over.
Nate Silver says it all:
"If a year ago you'd drawn up 1000 scenarios and ranked them from best to worst possible outcome for the GOP, this would be like No. 997."
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/705473902311567362
P.S. One more fly in the ointment of this admittedly wretched strategy, is that it may make sense to Rubio or Kasich, but Cruz rightly wonders if he can't do better on his own.
This is the man who singlehandedly shutdown the government on his own in 2013. Why would he suddenly act to bail out the Establishment if he thinks he can get a better deal on his own?
This deal makes more sense for Rubio who can't win outright anymore.
"Also, it is not clear that Cruz, who faces his own daunting mathematical challenge to getting a majority of delegates, is ready to play along in solely trying to prevent Trump from winning."
"It may be doable for us,” a senior Cruz adviser said of securing the nomination. “It's not doable for him," the adviser said of Rubio.
"Indeed, Cruz is tentatively planning his own multi-day trip to Florida next week, according to a second Cruz source, potentially hoping to knock Rubio out of the race entirely. How much time and money Cruz devotes to Florida would be contingent on whether Rubio falters badly in the states such as Kansas, Louisiana and Kentucky that vote over the weekend, and then again on March 8, when Mississippi, Michigan, Idaho and Hawaii cast ballots."
“A weakened Marco Rubio gives us an opportunity,” this Cruz adviser said.
“Is it better for Cruz to let Trump win Florida or Marco win Florida?” wondered the Rubio adviser aloud. “I suppose you could say, either.”
"Rubio’s delegate predicament came about largely from a devastating Super Tuesday. While Rubio’s narrow loss in Virginia was heavily covered, it was not nearly his most damaging result of the night."
"That came in Texas, where he failed to meet the 20 percent threshold to garner delegates statewide. As a result, Rubio may collect as few as three delegates from Texas’s treasure of 155 delegates. Rubio narrowly missed similar cutoffs for delegates in Alabama and Vermont, ceding potential delegates to his rivals."
“It's fair to say that Rubio’s path to 1,237 is shot,” Dave Wasserman, an analyst with the Cook Political Report who closely tracks the delegate race, said of the threshold to secure the nomination.
“There’s virtually no chance for Marco Rubio to get to a majority prior to the convention,” said John Yob, who served as a top delegate strategist for Rick Santorum in 2012 and John McCain in 2008.
"Even inside the Rubio orbit, there has been an acknowledgement that as long as Ted Cruz (and John Kasich) stay in the race, they have virtually zero mathematical chance of securing the nomination. Asked directly by Fox’s Megyn Kelly on Wednesday night if it was now “mathematically impossible” for him to be the nominee, Rubio dodged."
“I think you can make that argument for virtually everyone in this race at this point,” Rubio said, save Trump.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/marco-rubio-2016-path-220190#ixzz41sGtm2rl
This is what the entire Establishment is playing for was Romney's morning speech makes clear. Nobody is now playing to win but simply to sabotage Trump. Talk about inspiring.
"At a briefing for donors and bundlers held Tuesday at the campaign’s Washington, D.C., headquarters, campaign manager Terry Sullivan focused heavily on Rubio’s delegate-gathering convention scenarios, to the dismay of some supporters."
“That’s like drawing a 3-card and hoping people are going to bust along the way,” said one Rubio fundraiser, who attended and was disappointed with the presentation. “It usually doesn’t play out that way.”
"Team Rubio’s strategy shift to deny Trump delegates will play out both in his campaign schedule and on the airwaves in the coming days and weeks."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/marco-rubio-2016-path-220190#ixzz41sHL6xt0
So what is his strategy going forward? It's 'multi pronged' alright:
1. Throw all his chips into winning Florida.
2. That's all. Ok, so maybe it's not so multi-pronged.
"Starting this weekend, Rubio plans to burrow almost continuously in Florida, campaigning there “virtually every day” until March 15, according to a senior adviser, to ensure he secures its 99 delegates. The campaign is writing off Ohio and its 66 winner-take-all delegates entirely, in hopes that Gov. Kasich, who the Rubio campaign had previously tried to nudge out of the race, can prevent Trump from carrying his home state."
“As long as Kasich is in the race, Cruz and Marco are not going to win Ohio,” the senior Rubio adviser said.
"Meanwhile, Rubio’s super PAC, flush with as much as $20 million in fresh cash, has yet to buy any ads in Ohio and is not expected to do so in the future. Instead, it is currently invested in Florida and four of the earlier voting states that divide delegates proportionally."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/marco-rubio-2016-path-220190#ixzz41sHwqdTs
So if he loses Florida, that's it. And Rubio who is bailing on his state after one inauspicious term certainly doesn't lack for detractors in the state as Trump has already pointed out.
"Why would the great people of Florida vote for a guy who, as a Senator, never even shows up to vote - worst record. Marco Rubio is a joke!"
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/705357122859614209
Rubio is about as popular in Florida as Christie is in New Jersey.
And apparently Trump is planning to spend some actual money in Florida which is smart. If he can hold onto his lead there, this is pretty much over.
Nate Silver says it all:
"If a year ago you'd drawn up 1000 scenarios and ranked them from best to worst possible outcome for the GOP, this would be like No. 997."
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/705473902311567362
P.S. One more fly in the ointment of this admittedly wretched strategy, is that it may make sense to Rubio or Kasich, but Cruz rightly wonders if he can't do better on his own.
This is the man who singlehandedly shutdown the government on his own in 2013. Why would he suddenly act to bail out the Establishment if he thinks he can get a better deal on his own?
This deal makes more sense for Rubio who can't win outright anymore.
"Also, it is not clear that Cruz, who faces his own daunting mathematical challenge to getting a majority of delegates, is ready to play along in solely trying to prevent Trump from winning."
"It may be doable for us,” a senior Cruz adviser said of securing the nomination. “It's not doable for him," the adviser said of Rubio.
"Indeed, Cruz is tentatively planning his own multi-day trip to Florida next week, according to a second Cruz source, potentially hoping to knock Rubio out of the race entirely. How much time and money Cruz devotes to Florida would be contingent on whether Rubio falters badly in the states such as Kansas, Louisiana and Kentucky that vote over the weekend, and then again on March 8, when Mississippi, Michigan, Idaho and Hawaii cast ballots."
“A weakened Marco Rubio gives us an opportunity,” this Cruz adviser said.
“Is it better for Cruz to let Trump win Florida or Marco win Florida?” wondered the Rubio adviser aloud. “I suppose you could say, either.”
"Rubio’s delegate predicament came about largely from a devastating Super Tuesday. While Rubio’s narrow loss in Virginia was heavily covered, it was not nearly his most damaging result of the night."
"That came in Texas, where he failed to meet the 20 percent threshold to garner delegates statewide. As a result, Rubio may collect as few as three delegates from Texas’s treasure of 155 delegates. Rubio narrowly missed similar cutoffs for delegates in Alabama and Vermont, ceding potential delegates to his rivals."
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