Josh Marshall on the Ben Carson Phenomenon

This Talking Points Memo piece by Marshall, is not going to make Tom Brown very happy!.Josh, though sounds kind of like Tom here:

"Why Ben Carson Isn't Going Away -- And What Makes That So Scary"

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/why-ben-carson-is-no-herman-cain

I have to say, many probably feel like Tom and Marshall, but not me. I'm loving every minute of this GOP foray into the deep end. 

This is the only way we get to a better governing situation in US politics-by the GOP simply imploding under the weight of it's own purist folly. The trouble with purism is you can never find agreement even among yourselves. 

The GOP has deluded itself into thinking that simple opposition to Obama-Hillary is enough for GOP unity. What we have been seeing both in Congress with what happened to Boehner and McCarthy and what we are seeing with the Presidential race is that maybe this time it won't be the Center that cannot hold but the Right. 

So, yes, I am fine with Ben Carson winning the GOP nomination-to be sure my first choice remains Trump but Carson would be pretty cool too-though I think his appeal may be less once you move beyond the Bible belt in Iowa and a few other places. 

For me the goal is Anyone but Rubio-I'm presuming Jeb is probably not going to get it done though he may well stay in for awhile. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather he is able to stay in a long while to further divide the Establishment vote. 

His leaving would probably be in the Establishment's interest though. Back to Josh:

"During the last month the long-awaited, heavily-promoted decline in Donald Trump’s standing in the Republican presidential nominating contest has finally begun to occur. But aside from a small reshuffling of the order in the “lanes” (e.g., Rubio moving past Bush among Establishment Republicans and Cruz moving past Huckabee, Santorum and Jindal among experienced Christian Right candidates) to which the candidates have been assigned by the punditocracy, the big beneficiary of softening support for Trump has been another candidate with no experience in elected office, Dr. Ben Carson. He is running either first or a strong second in virtually every national poll, and is now routinely leading polls of Iowa as well. His approval ratings, moreover, are extremely high, and best in the field. It’s safe to say he is almost universally admired by GOP voters."

The one thing I will push back on is that Trump's support is softening. This has not been shown just yet. True, several recent national polls have shown Carson leading Trump-the WSJ poll showed him up by the most in any at six points-29-23.

On Real Clear Politics, Carson now has a narrow edge of 1 point-25-24. However, Trump's support hasn't really dissipated, it's just that Carson's has risen. But delegates are not won at the national but the state level and there the only early state Carson has a lead in is Iowa.

And while RCP had him up 9 over Trump last week-29-20-this morning after Trump lead in a couple of Iowa polls, his lead over Trump is just 3 percent.

What is being totally ignored is that Trump still has a huge lead in NH-yes Rubio has rallied there but Trump leads by close to 20 points over his next challenger-yep, Ben Carson.

Trump is also doing very well in South Carolina and Nevada-and yesterday showed him with a 20 point lead in Florida-which is the state Rubio should be able to win if he really is to be taken as seriously as the media says he should be.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html

I've argued that if Jeb will just get out this might give Rubio a shot in Florida. But this poll showed that Trump at 29% beat Rubio and Jeb combined at 24%/

I'd say that Trump is set to finish first in at least 3 of the next 4 contests after Iowa-and he is actually tightening in Iowa again.

I suspect to an extent the Beltway press is happy to say anyone other than Trump is winning-though Carson is hardly an improvement for the Establishment!

I don't deny that Carson hasn't rallied but he still leads no early states other than Iowa and Trump's support isn't really softening. We saw a poll last week that showed him with 29% and Ben with 27%. So it's not so much that Trump has fallen but that Carson has risen. 

UPDATE: Trump leads narrowly in the latest poll. 

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2299

So Carson's support actually comes from elsewhere.

Marshall goes on to arguing that Carson is not going to be a flavor of the month like Herman Cain was. Sure. For one thing Cain had all those sexual harassment allegations hanging over him.

"Less obvious -- and finally being recognized by political reporters spending time in Iowa -- is that Carson is a familiar, beloved figure to conservative evangelicals, who have been reading his books for years."

"Another factor, and one that I emphasized in my own take here two months ago, is that Carson is a devoted believer in a number of surprisingly resonant right-wing conspiracy theories, which he articulates via dog whistles that excite fellow devotees (particularly fans of Glenn Beck, who shares much of Carson’s world-view) without alarming regular GOP voters or alerting the MSM."

"As David Corn of Mother Jones has patiently explained, the real key for understanding Carson (like Beck) is via the works of Cold War-era John Birch Society member and prolific pseudo-historian W. Cleon Skousen, who stipulated that America was under siege from the secret domestic agents of global Marxism who masqueraded as liberals. Carson has also clearly bought into the idea that these crypto-commies are systematically applying the deceptive tactics of Saul Alinsky in order to destroy the country from within—a theme to which he alluded in the famous National Prayer Breakfast speech that launched his political career and in the first Republican presidential candidates’ debate."

"And that is why the broadly held assumption that Carson will, like 2012 candidate Herman Cain, quickly fade from contention as voting nears is worth rethinking. For one thing, Carson’s race is just one source of his appeal, so identifying him with the last black conservative to run for president is highly questionable."

"Cain was not a revered figure before running in 2012, beyond those who listened when he sat in for an Atlanta-based radio host. He also was not exactly a non-politician, having run unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate. But the most important reason to stop identifying Carson with Cain is simple: Cain’s loss of his once-high poll ratings were not caused by a voters getting tired with a “flavor of the month” or realizing his slim qualifications; he was brought down by a series of sexual allegations that escalated from multiple claims of sexual harassment to a long-term extramarital affair. Cain never admitted any wrong-doing, but he also never convincingly rebutted the allegations, and all the smoke convinced many observers there might be fire. He left the race on his own terms, but after losing most of his altitude."

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/why-ben-carson-is-no-herman-cain

Hey, it's their party and they can vote for Ben Carson if they want to! Far be it from me to meddle in GOP affairs!