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Friday, November 20, 2015

Establishment Fears the Rising Power of Ted Cruz

And why not. He got a recent pretty big endorsement from Steve

https://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/iowas-steve-king-endorses-ted-cruz_1064728.html

And he has lots of money.

Rival campaigns starting to fear Ted Cruz

Increasingly, the field sees a clear path for Cruz into March.

He has more cash than any other Republican candidate. He is organized in every county in the first four voting states. And he has served up one strong debate performance after another.

Now, not three months from primary season, rivals concede they have begun to fear Ted Cruz has an increasingly clear path to the Republican nomination.

“Anybody who thinks differently,” said an operative with a rival 2016 campaign, “is lying to you.”

"The 2016 field’s reluctantly bullish outlook on Cruz marks a dramatic about-face for Republicans weighing the divisive senator’s odds. For months, Cruz was considered a long shot at best — a hard-line conservative with a niche audience of angry evangelicals, mired in the middle of the polls and, anyway, overshadowed by Donald Trump. Allies of and operatives on campaigns as varied as Jeb Bush’s and Mike Huckabee’s dismissed the Texas senator’s ability to court enough supporters to defeat a more mainstream Republican."

"No longer."

"The same Republican rivals who relegated Cruz to a second tier in discussions this past summer now see this insurgent firebrand as the candidate who benefited most from Scott Walker’s exit and the one who stands to gain should Trump or Ben Carson decline. Indeed, Cruz is seen by most of his competition as one of the few likely to still be standing in March."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/ted-cruz-republicans-2016-215903#ixzz3s1seCtRQ

I don;t know about Trump falling at this point.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/11/19/yes-donald-trump-could-absolutely-be-the-republican-nominee-in-2016/

But a new PPP poll shows clearly Cruz is on the upswing.

"PPP's first look at the Republican Presidential race nationally in six weeks finds that things haven't actually changed all that much since early October. Donald Trump leads the field with 26%, to 19% for Ben Carson. Trump and Carson were first and second on our last poll as well at 27% and 17% respectively. Also getting solid amounts of support are Ted Cruz at 14% and Marco Rubio at 13%. No one else in the GOP field even gets more than 5%- Jeb Bush reaches that mark followed by Carly Fiorina and Mike Huckabee at 4%, Chris Christie and John Kasich at 3%, Rand Paul at 2%, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki at 1%, and Jim Gilmore, Bobby Jindal, and Rick Santorum all at less than 1%."

"There's only one candidate in the whole field who can really claim momentum compared to a month ago: that's Ted Cruz. He's doubled his support from 7% in early October to its current 14% standing. He's also seen a net 9 point improvement in his favorability rating from +20 (50/30) a month ago to now +29 (55/26). Cruz is leading the field among voters who describe themselves as 'very conservative' with 29% to 24% for Trump and 22% for Carson. On a related note he's also ahead among self described Tea Partiers with 26% to 23% each for Carson and Trump. He is definitely the candidate headed in the right direction with the right at this time"

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/11/gop-has-clear-top-4-clinton-dominant-for-dems-general-election-tight.html

The only other candidate with significant movement is Jeb-to the downside.

"Besides Cruz there's only one other candidate in the whole field whose support has moved by more than 2 points over the last six weeks. That's Jeb Bush who's headed in the wrong direction- his 5% level of support is only half of the 10% that he had in October. And Bush just continues to get more unpopular- only 27% of GOP primary voters see him favorably to 50% with a negative opinion. We've written a lot this year about his struggles with conservatives and those continue- he has a 22/58 favorability with 'very conservative' voters and only 4% support him for the nomination. But he's also struggling at this point even with moderates- he has a 23/52 favorability with them."

It does seem that Carson may be slipping some. In that six week gap between PPP polls, Carson had effectively tied Trump but is now falling back again a little.

You are seeing an increasing jockeying for position between Rubio and Cruz. Rubio is hitting him as weak on terrorism and Cruz is hitting him as weak on immigration.
It seems to me that the base is more on Cruz's side. Indeed, as that Syrian refugee bill showed yesterday, in the mind of the base, being tough on terrorism and being tough on immigrants is more or less the same thing.

It's not for nothing that Ann Coulter declared the night of the Paris attacks that it was the night Trump was elected.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/260155-coulter-after-paris-attacks-trump-was-elected-president-tonight

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