A new poll in Iowa seems to confirm what other polls recently have suggested:
1. Ted Cruz is on the upswing
2. Ben Carson has lost a step
3. Trump is strong
4. Jeb is down and looking closer to out.
"Ted Cruz, buoyed by tea party support and the backing of the conservative wing of the Republican Party, has surged to a virtual tie with Donald Trump in the first caucus state of Iowa, according to the results of a Quinnipiac University poll surveying likely Republican caucus-goers released Tuesday."
"Trump took 25 percent of support, followed by 23 percent who opted for the freshman Texas senator, more than doubling his support in the same poll from October, when he earned just 10 percent. Trailing the two leaders is Ben Carson, who dropped from first to third, falling 10 points to 18 percent."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/poll-ted-cruz-iowa-trump-216166#ixzz3sPyxJMcY
As a Trump Democrat this is not bad news for me. Remember being a Trump Democrat is about more than Trump. It's the desire that the GOP either:
1. Fail to nominate an establishment candidate
2. Or even if they do, have it be a long, contentious, and very messy fight.
Yes, Trump has now unruled out running as a third party candidate. Which is fair-after all Kasich's huge anti Trump campaign against him is hardly the GOP playing fair!
What I have found heartening recently is that Cruz seems to be surging, but Rubio hasn't been so much. According to RCP averages, Rubo leads Cruz nationally by only 1.2 points and Cruz leads him in Iowa by 6 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Indeed the GOP nightmare scenario-nightmare for them, but the opposite for a Trump Democrat like me-seems within reach.
"Scott Walker was vanquished in weeks. Rick Perry, too. Chris Christie and Bobby Jindal are all but forgotten. Jeb Bush has won a pile of money and very little voter support to go with it. So now, Marco Rubio is being prematurely crowned the nominee in waiting. But it's the non-pols — Donald Trump and Ben Carson — who own the support of a full half of GOP voters in the actual polls. The GOP's best and brightest are getting stomped by a carnival barker whose vocabulary barely extends beyond "terrific" and "terrible," and an exceptional neurosurgeon who is completely incapable of being president."
"We are fast approaching the nightmare scenario for the Republican Party."
"It looks something like this: Over the next few months, Trump and Carson only drop a little from their polling highs. Ted Cruz's strategy of never attacking Trump's or Carson's supporters is adopted by the other actual politicians in the race. The continuing success of Trump and Carson means there will likely be only one spot for a traditional Republican candidate in the end. That causes the skirmishes between Cruz, Rubio, and Bush to intensify."
http://theweek.com/articles/588673/gops-nightmare-scenario-real
As he says, its' all down to Rubio. But Rubio has a problem that is insourmountable-it's called amnesty. His support for Gang of Eight-how does he get away from that?
"The immigration issue is changing the fate of political parties across the Western world. And young and fresh as he is, on immigration, Rubio is the candidate of the recent past. Someone else is the future."
"That someone might be Ted Cruz. Now, Cruz's immigration attack on Rubio has been met forcefully by the Rubio campaign so far. But Cruz can rely on talk-radio stalwarts like Laura Ingraham, Michael Savage, and others to hammer Rubio on the issue constantly. This is bad for party mandarins. Cruz is loathed by his colleagues in the Senate. His persona electrifies his supporters and his detractors. To the establishment, Cruz looks like Barry Goldwater 2.0 — an uncontrollable right-winger, destined to be blown out."
So how about that? A photo primary finish between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump? That I'd pay to see. Really, I would.
1. Ted Cruz is on the upswing
2. Ben Carson has lost a step
3. Trump is strong
4. Jeb is down and looking closer to out.
"Ted Cruz, buoyed by tea party support and the backing of the conservative wing of the Republican Party, has surged to a virtual tie with Donald Trump in the first caucus state of Iowa, according to the results of a Quinnipiac University poll surveying likely Republican caucus-goers released Tuesday."
"Trump took 25 percent of support, followed by 23 percent who opted for the freshman Texas senator, more than doubling his support in the same poll from October, when he earned just 10 percent. Trailing the two leaders is Ben Carson, who dropped from first to third, falling 10 points to 18 percent."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/poll-ted-cruz-iowa-trump-216166#ixzz3sPyxJMcY
As a Trump Democrat this is not bad news for me. Remember being a Trump Democrat is about more than Trump. It's the desire that the GOP either:
1. Fail to nominate an establishment candidate
2. Or even if they do, have it be a long, contentious, and very messy fight.
Yes, Trump has now unruled out running as a third party candidate. Which is fair-after all Kasich's huge anti Trump campaign against him is hardly the GOP playing fair!
What I have found heartening recently is that Cruz seems to be surging, but Rubio hasn't been so much. According to RCP averages, Rubo leads Cruz nationally by only 1.2 points and Cruz leads him in Iowa by 6 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Indeed the GOP nightmare scenario-nightmare for them, but the opposite for a Trump Democrat like me-seems within reach.
"Scott Walker was vanquished in weeks. Rick Perry, too. Chris Christie and Bobby Jindal are all but forgotten. Jeb Bush has won a pile of money and very little voter support to go with it. So now, Marco Rubio is being prematurely crowned the nominee in waiting. But it's the non-pols — Donald Trump and Ben Carson — who own the support of a full half of GOP voters in the actual polls. The GOP's best and brightest are getting stomped by a carnival barker whose vocabulary barely extends beyond "terrific" and "terrible," and an exceptional neurosurgeon who is completely incapable of being president."
"We are fast approaching the nightmare scenario for the Republican Party."
"It looks something like this: Over the next few months, Trump and Carson only drop a little from their polling highs. Ted Cruz's strategy of never attacking Trump's or Carson's supporters is adopted by the other actual politicians in the race. The continuing success of Trump and Carson means there will likely be only one spot for a traditional Republican candidate in the end. That causes the skirmishes between Cruz, Rubio, and Bush to intensify."
http://theweek.com/articles/588673/gops-nightmare-scenario-real
As he says, its' all down to Rubio. But Rubio has a problem that is insourmountable-it's called amnesty. His support for Gang of Eight-how does he get away from that?
"The immigration issue is changing the fate of political parties across the Western world. And young and fresh as he is, on immigration, Rubio is the candidate of the recent past. Someone else is the future."
"That someone might be Ted Cruz. Now, Cruz's immigration attack on Rubio has been met forcefully by the Rubio campaign so far. But Cruz can rely on talk-radio stalwarts like Laura Ingraham, Michael Savage, and others to hammer Rubio on the issue constantly. This is bad for party mandarins. Cruz is loathed by his colleagues in the Senate. His persona electrifies his supporters and his detractors. To the establishment, Cruz looks like Barry Goldwater 2.0 — an uncontrollable right-winger, destined to be blown out."
So how about that? A photo primary finish between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump? That I'd pay to see. Really, I would.
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