Turkey's Shooting Down a Russian Plane Today Underscores How Hard it is to Build anti ISIS Coalition

It's easy to say as many pundits are that the President's ISIS strategy is a big flop and that 'everyoone but him knows he needs a new ISIS strategy.'

However, even those who come up with alternatives are not usually about big changes but tweaks here or there. At the end of the time, despite all the talk that 'We don''t have time' defeating ISIS will take time and patience.

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-1122-mcmanus-islamic-state-strategy-20151122-column.html

Some say we should form a large coalition. Sure, But this is what the Obama Administration has been working on. And it's much easier said than done.

Sure we can appeal and cajole our Middle Eastern partners. But many of them don't see defeating ISIS as the central strategy as we do. They are interested first and foremost in getting rid of Assad.

And that brings us to today's very serious incident between Turkey and Russia.

"Turkey shot down a Russian warplane on Tuesday, fueling fears that Syria's civil war has become a geopolitical flashpoint that could explode outside its borders, with Russian President Vladimir Putin declaring it "a stab in our back."

"Today’s loss is linked with a stab in our back delivered by terrorism accomplices," Putin said, according to Russia's TASS news agency. "I can’t characterize otherwise what has happened today."

"Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said in a speech in Ankara his country would do "whatever is necessary" to keep the country safe, repeating that Turkey has the right to respond if its airspace is violated, according to Reuters."

"For his part, Putin said that the pilots and aircraft posed no threat to Turkey."

"This is obvious. They were conducting an operation against ISIL," Putin said at a meeting with Jordanian King Abdullah II in Sochi.

"In an earlier statement, Russia's Defense Ministry said it was investigating "the circumstances of the crash," adding that the ministry "would like to stress that the plane was over the Syrian territory throughout the flight."

"According to a Turkish military statement issued before the jet's identity was known, however, it was flying over Turkish territory. The Russian and Turkish accounts also differed on how the plane was shot down: Russia says it was downed by artillery fire, while Turkey says its F-16s fired their weapons."

"On Nov. 24, 2015 at around 09.20 a.m, a plane whose nationality is not known violated the Turkish airspace despite several warnings (10 times within five minutes) in the area of Yayladagi, Hatary," the statement said. "Two F-16 planes on aerial patrol duty in the area intervened against the plane in question in accordance with the rules of engagement at 09.24 a.m."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/russian-plane-shot-down-turkey-216172#ixzz3sQoOwW6v

Ok. you get the point. This is a classic He said She said. Russia claims they weren't flying over Turkish air space, Turkey says they were. Turkey has also said this is not the first time.

Josh Marshall worries that this kind of points out that Russia is a paper tiger next to the power of the US and NATO allies that could drive the Russians to try to save face.

"For all the worry and Putin worship we see today, what I find most worrisome about the Russians is that I strongly suspect their readiness, expertise at military craft, hardware etc are all basically third rate. That means that when they get into confrontations with first rate military powers - the US and NATO signatories, for instance - they'll likely embarrass themselves. That's great in nationalistic terms and as comeuppance for the destructive and reckless actions Russia has been taking in recent years. But it also means, they'll be driven to save face - especially given how much nationalistic resurgence and cult of personality is central to Putin's rule. And that is especially dangerous."

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/things-can-always-get-worse

Certainly this is not an inconsiderable worry. That a NATO country-even Turkey-admits to deliberately shooting down a Russian plane-though they claim they didn't know it was Russian-is a further real worry.

But more than anything, it shows you how hard it is to build the right coalition. As Marshall argues, it's hard to believe both sides didn't know exactly what they were doing.

How do you get Russia and Turkey into the same anti ISIS coalition when Turkey wants Assad out at all costs and Russia wants to protect him at all costs?

And that's before Russia was 'stabbed in the back' by a NATO ally.

The US like France wants to take down ISIS first and foremost. But Arab allies like Turkey and the Saudis want Assad gone first and foremost. Russia wants Assad to stay in.

This is why the US doesn't really want to work with Russia. The real reason for what happened you suspect is that Turkey was going after Russia for targeting the Syrian rebels.

This is why the US has to vow to take out Assad-to have the support of Muslim allies.

There has been some talk of a coalition including Russia that somehow can agree to the end of the civil war. After what happened today, this will only be tougher to execute.