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Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Yesterday Showed That Putin is a Paper Tiger

The  President underscored this well in his press conference with French President Francois Hollande yesterday.

Putin has been a source of Republican obsession the last few years-I guess they see Putin as the aggressor they think the US should be. But just as the President has urged us not to elevate ISIS, he has also warned against elevating Putin and yesterday's in Turkey showed why.

Josh Marshall pointed this out yesterday:

""For all the worry and Putin worship we see today, what I find most worrisome about the Russians is that I strongly suspect their readiness, expertise at military craft, hardware etc are all basically third rate. That means that when they get into confrontations with first rate military powers - the US and NATO signatories, for instance - they'll likely embarrass themselves. That's great in nationalistic terms and as comeuppance for the destructive and reckless actions Russia has been taking in recent years. But it also means, they'll be driven to save face - especially given how much nationalistic resurgence and cult of personality is central to Putin's rule. And that is especially dangerous."

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/things-can-always-get-worse

Obama made the point when Putin started in Syria that there's nothing there for us to envy or seek to emulate-that Putin is doing this out of weakness. 

At yesterday's press conference a point he made is that Putin kind of backed himself into trouble in Turkey,

Obama and Hollande display united front against Putin

"Obama suggests Putin's approach to Syria was the real cause for Turkey's dramatic shoot down Tuesday of a Russian fighter near Turkish airspace."

"The Russian president launched his own airstrikes in Syria in late September, and he has invited France and the U.S. to cooperate with his military effort, which targets not only ISIS but also rebel groups fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad's forces"

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/barack-obama-francois-hollande-paris-attacks-white-house-visit-216179#ixzz3sVbzTaSL

That's a big reason an alliance with Russia is so difficult-it wants to maintain Assad in power but the reason ISIS is in Syria to being with is that Assad was cracking down on Sunnis.

On the other hand, we're not totally on the same page even with Turkey our NATO ally-or Saudi Arabia. For Turkey-and the Saudis-the real enemy is Assad, though ISIS has caused Turkey some problems along its border.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/isil-strategy-turkey-213392

"While Obama and Hollande didn't rule out eventually coordinating with Moscow against ISIS, they repeatedly said that Putin's support for Assad was only prolonging the conflict."

"There is a potential convergence of interests" with Russia, recently the target of an ISIS bombing that brought down a passenger jet after its departure from Egypt. But Obama said Putin would have to agree to the U.S. and European position that any Syrian peace settlement will pave the way for Assad's exit from power.

"It requires us working with [Russia] to make the kind of strategic shift that’s necessary, and that frankly I’ve talked to Putin about for five years now," Obama said.

Neither Obama nor Hollande would offer a timeline for how long they might be willing to allow Assad to remain in power as part of a transitional process, a topic of intense discussion among the various parties to the Syrian conflict, which also include Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia."

Here the President makes a great point.

"Obama also suggested that Putin's approach to Syria was the real cause of Turkey's dramatic shootdown Tuesday of a Russian fighter jet that Ankara says was in Turkish airspace. "It points to an ongoing problem with the Russian operations, in the sense that they are operating very close to a Turkish border and they are going after moderate opposition that are supported not only by Turkey but a wide range of countries," Obama said.

"And if Russia is directing its energies toward Daesh and ISIL, some of those conflicts or potentials for mistakes or escalation are less likely to occur," Obama said. "I also think this underscores the importance of us making sure we move this political track forward as fast as possible."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/barack-obama-francois-hollande-paris-attacks-white-house-visit-216179#ixzz3sVe0O2N2

Hollande vowed to echo that sentiment when he meets with Putin.

"Hollande said he would echo that message in his meeting with Putin. "I will tell him that France can work together with Russia if Russia concentrates its military action on Daesh, against ISIL, and if Russia fully commits to the political solution in Syria," Hollande said.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/barack-obama-francois-hollande-paris-attacks-white-house-visit-216179#ixzz3sVeaz28G
So the big question going forward will be whether they can come up with a solution to the civil war that pleases both Russia, and the Arab allies like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, etc. 

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