We;ve heard a lot of talk about how there's nothing to see here, previous primaries have had 'boomlets' and nevertheless, at the end of the day, The Party Decides. .
Usually, but what is usual about this GOP primary so far far? The idea that Trump is a boomlet is so far little more than wishful thinking. It's a theory that hasn't gotten much love by the facts on the ground.
But if you want to start with where things are really different this year, check out New Hampshire. Yes, you've had outsiders or nonestablishment candidates lead in some early polls before-though I'm not sure we've seen any recently with Trump's staying power.
But no question, outsider candidates sometimes win in Iowa. If Trump, Carson, or Cruz win there it can be dismissed as Iowa hasn't exactly been predictive in recent election cycles.
But it's New Hampshire that's without precedent.
"The last two Republican presidential primary contests have followed the same script: A conservative candidate wins in Iowa, a relative moderate wins in New Hampshire, and the latter — with broader appeal and all of the establishment’s resources — outlasts the former in a protracted fight for the nomination."
"But so far this cycle, New Hampshire’s voters aren’t playing along. Donald Trump has led every poll in New Hampshire since June. Candidates like Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush have struggled to get out of the single digits."
"The weakness of mainstream candidates in New Hampshire poses a big challenge for the party’s beleaguered establishment. If a candidate acceptable to the party can’t win New Hampshire or Iowa, the G.O.P. will face a bleak choice: undertake the daunting and expensive task of mounting a come-from-behind effort, or grudgingly acquiesce to a candidate it really doesn’t want, like Ted Cruz, but who may be better than someone it can never accept, like Mr. Trump."
"The extent of the weakness of the establishment in New Hampshire is a striking departure from recent contests. In the polling data that The Upshot has collected from the last three Republican primaries, no one other than Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and George W. Bush led even a single New Hampshire Republican poll in the year ahead of the contest. Not only did surging conservatives like Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich never lead, but they also didn’t usually come close. After all, this is a state where Jon Huntsman won 17 percent of the vote in 2012."
"How is Mr. Trump doing so well? He’s drawing on many moderate and secular voters who haven’t supported the anti-establishment but usually religious candidates who have fared well in Iowa. The same pattern emerges in national polls, which often show Mr. Trump faring best among self-described moderates."
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/11/19/upshot/the-gop-establishment-has-a-big-new-hampshire-problem.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0&referer=
At this point, Trump has a 14 point lead in the RCP polling average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
If the nonestalbishment candidates win both Iowa and NH it's not clear where the establishment catches up. After NH it's on to South Carolina-which is also Trump and Carson territory. Then there's Florida where Trump is also dominating.
I do notice that Carson has slipped in some recent polls both nationally and in NH. There was this one NH poll recently which showed Carson falling back to 7% though we'll have to see if that were an outlier or not.
Could it be that the nuttiness of Dr. Ben is catching up with him? I'm not saying yes and I'm not saying no.
Rubio also seems to be picking up a little-he's now in second in NH on RCP with Carson and Cruz close behind. Cruz is basically stalking him in every poll just a point or two back.
So as a Trump Democrat my hope is: Rubio doesn't finish in the top two in either NH or Iowa.
Usually, but what is usual about this GOP primary so far far? The idea that Trump is a boomlet is so far little more than wishful thinking. It's a theory that hasn't gotten much love by the facts on the ground.
But if you want to start with where things are really different this year, check out New Hampshire. Yes, you've had outsiders or nonestablishment candidates lead in some early polls before-though I'm not sure we've seen any recently with Trump's staying power.
But no question, outsider candidates sometimes win in Iowa. If Trump, Carson, or Cruz win there it can be dismissed as Iowa hasn't exactly been predictive in recent election cycles.
But it's New Hampshire that's without precedent.
"The last two Republican presidential primary contests have followed the same script: A conservative candidate wins in Iowa, a relative moderate wins in New Hampshire, and the latter — with broader appeal and all of the establishment’s resources — outlasts the former in a protracted fight for the nomination."
"But so far this cycle, New Hampshire’s voters aren’t playing along. Donald Trump has led every poll in New Hampshire since June. Candidates like Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush have struggled to get out of the single digits."
"The weakness of mainstream candidates in New Hampshire poses a big challenge for the party’s beleaguered establishment. If a candidate acceptable to the party can’t win New Hampshire or Iowa, the G.O.P. will face a bleak choice: undertake the daunting and expensive task of mounting a come-from-behind effort, or grudgingly acquiesce to a candidate it really doesn’t want, like Ted Cruz, but who may be better than someone it can never accept, like Mr. Trump."
"The extent of the weakness of the establishment in New Hampshire is a striking departure from recent contests. In the polling data that The Upshot has collected from the last three Republican primaries, no one other than Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and George W. Bush led even a single New Hampshire Republican poll in the year ahead of the contest. Not only did surging conservatives like Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich never lead, but they also didn’t usually come close. After all, this is a state where Jon Huntsman won 17 percent of the vote in 2012."
"How is Mr. Trump doing so well? He’s drawing on many moderate and secular voters who haven’t supported the anti-establishment but usually religious candidates who have fared well in Iowa. The same pattern emerges in national polls, which often show Mr. Trump faring best among self-described moderates."
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/11/19/upshot/the-gop-establishment-has-a-big-new-hampshire-problem.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0&referer=
At this point, Trump has a 14 point lead in the RCP polling average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
If the nonestalbishment candidates win both Iowa and NH it's not clear where the establishment catches up. After NH it's on to South Carolina-which is also Trump and Carson territory. Then there's Florida where Trump is also dominating.
I do notice that Carson has slipped in some recent polls both nationally and in NH. There was this one NH poll recently which showed Carson falling back to 7% though we'll have to see if that were an outlier or not.
Could it be that the nuttiness of Dr. Ben is catching up with him? I'm not saying yes and I'm not saying no.
Rubio also seems to be picking up a little-he's now in second in NH on RCP with Carson and Cruz close behind. Cruz is basically stalking him in every poll just a point or two back.
So as a Trump Democrat my hope is: Rubio doesn't finish in the top two in either NH or Iowa.
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