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Sunday, November 8, 2015

Adalai Stevenson, Ben Carson and the Reality Quotient

It's tough to imagine two more different people than Adalai Stevenson and Ben Carson, But when talking to my reader Tom Brown, about his concern about what we'll call the Reality Quotient in American life, I think of something Stevenson once said. Stevenson was a smart guy and you don't get more reality based than him.

But a woman once said to him Senator, you have the support of every thinking person. He replied Yes madam, but I need a majority. 

http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/every_thinking_person_will_vote_for_you_but_i_need_a_majority

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Adlai_Stevenson_II

It's often been suggested that he was too big an egghead to be President. Maybe-though it might just be that he drew an unlucky hand in having to run against Ike twice in a row.

Speaking of Ben Carson there is a crucial distinction made in a New Republic piece about the difference between being highly intelligent and being what you'd call 'reality based.'

I've made this point to Tom. He worries about Creationists, etc, but in truth what you think about evolution isn't relevant to being an engineer like him; interestingly, another big reader of mine, Greg, is also an engineer I believe.

You can be very intelligent and be totally out of touch with reality. We have the classic case of Daivd Koresh-another proud alumni of the Seventh Day Adventist church along with me and Ben Carson.

I say alumni-I haven't been in the church in my adult life.

Ben Carson is not a dummy. He is highly intelligent and one of the greatest surgeons ever. Yet he also believes that the Pyramids were built by the Biblical Joseph to store grain.

He is more or less a pathological liar who makes up lots of stories mostly it seems to me, to sell books. You can argue that his campaign is really just one long extended book tour.

As Tom said himself last night, a big difference between Carson and Trump is that Carson probably really believes the things he says-the charlatan for him is his campaign manager Armstrong Williams who is sort of his own personal Colonel Parker.

http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/exposed-unstable-ben-carson-is-a-mere-puppet-of-his-business-manager-armstrong-williams/22955/

Ok, let's look at the New Republic piece:

"The mystery of Ben Carson is that he’s a startlingly intelligent man with an inspiring life story who repeatedly makes unhinged assertions that are divorced from reality—and who, as we now know, unnecessarily embellishes his life story. About Carson’s braininess there can be no doubt: He’s not just a doctor, nor is he just a brain surgeon, he’s also performed astonishing medical breakthroughs. In 1987, he was the first surgeon to successfully separate twins conjoined at the head, not a feat that you can do unless you are extraordinarily talented. Yet Carson’s impressive medical accomplishments are puzzling in light of the many absurd things he’s said, notably that Charles Darwin was inspired by Satan and that the pyramids were created by the Hebrew slave Joseph to store grain (as against what Carson thinks is the belief of many "scientists” that they were created by space aliens)."

"There’s no gainsaying the undisputed facts of Carson’s life, which are genuinely elevating. He really did go from a ghetto childhood to Yale to medical school to being a world-class surgeon. Why then has Carson felt the need to gild the lily with apparently tall tales of being a a violence-prone kid who nearly murdered a friend, and beings offered a scholarship to West Point. Reporting by CNN and Politico has made it clear that these central claims in his autobiographical account of himself are almost surely false."

"To solve the mystery of Ben Carson, it’s important to realize two facts: First, great intelligence doesn’t immunize a person from indulging in magical thinking or pseudo-science. Second, even very smart and accomplished people can be fantasists."
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/123394/truth-about-ben-carson-smart-people-can-believe-crazy-things

I think this really underscores my point about how engineers, doctors, all kinds of specialists in science fields can be wholly clueless about stuff like evolution.

Practitioners often don't need to be reality-based-they just have to know their own field.

I've been trying to really amplify this point of mine, and it turns out there is an actual clinical term for this: Carson has very high 'domain specific intelligence.' There are many like this. I think there is a great tendency for this in all kinds of highly specialized fields.

But someone like Dr. Ben because of his high social status comes to think he knows more about other things he knows nothing about-politics, history, evolution, etc.

"A key text for understanding the Carson phenomenon is science journalist Michael Shermer’s Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstition, and Other Confusions of Our Times (originally published in 1997 and revised in 2002). In a chapter titled “Why Smart People Believe Weird Things,” Shermer notes that “intelligence is ... orthogonal to the variables that go into shaping beliefs.” What this means is that the factors that make someone believe unusual and non-scientific or pseudo-scientific ideas—everything ranging from ESP to myths about Atlantis to oddball Shakespearean authorship theories to outright holocaust denial—are independent of intelligence. These are beliefs that very smart people as well as the far less intellectually gifted are prone to.

“Another problem is that smart people might be smart in only one field,” Shermer notes. “We say that their intelligence is domain specific." Carson clearly has a "domain-specific" intelligence—which he freely applies to fields outside his ken (not just Egyptian Archaeology but also American politics, foreign policy, economics, evolutionary biology, and many others).

Tom is something of a militant atheist. I'm an atheist too though I don't know if I'm as militant. I think religious belief is just part of the deal of humanity and if you're waiting for it to be over you're going to have a long wait.

But to me society has problems that need to be fixed now so I can't wait for that. I don't know that too many can follow the path I took for weaning off of belief-I read Nietzsche. LOL.

Here's more pessimism for militant atheism:

"About two-thirds of scientists believe in God, according to a new survey that uncovered stark differences based on the type of research they do."

"The study, along with another one released in June, would appear to debunk the oft-held notion that science is incompatible with religion."

"Those in the social sciences are more likely to believe in God and attend religious services than researchers in the natural sciences, the study found."

"Nearly 38 percent of natural scientists -- people in disciplines like physics, chemistry and biology -- said they do not believe in God. Only 31 percent of the social scientists do not believe."

http://www.livescience.com/379-scientists-belief-god-varies-starkly-discipline.html

So 62% of biologists believe in God. Biology is the one field, of course, where most believe in evolution. Of course, Darwin himself believed in God and claimed that evolution showed God's power.

P.S. What I defined as 'militant atheism' here is basically proselytizing. Tom would like to see people weaned off religion pretty quickly. To me that's a deep and ambitious project that will take time I don't think we have right now.

As the economists tell us, it's all about opportunity cost. For me, my proselytizing is to get Hillary Clinton elected and gain a Democratic governing majority.
 


18 comments:

  1. Great post Mike!... and you pretty accurately nailed my views, although I'd classify myself more as an militant atheist wannabe. I don't think I have what it takes to actually be a militant atheist (or a "firebrand" atheist as David Silverman puts it). However I've come to admire the firebrand, and also to value what they do much more so than I ever did in the past.

    The reason I'm not a real firebrand is that I know from personal experience that people of faith are not necessarily the enemy. I will take allies where I can find them! Indeed some self professed secularists ... who are strong on the issue of separation of church and state... are also religious believers. I don't have any desire to make enemies of such people.

    And you're right about the stats on scientists... although if you look at a more "refined" set, like the members of the National Academy of Scientists, you're less likely to find strong believers and virtually guaranteed to NOT find any fundamentalists. Indeed, some believers have been instrumental in keeping creationism out of science classes (for example, evolutionary biologist (and Catholic) Dr. Kenneth Miller, who for his outstanding efforts in this regard, I think of as one of my heroes!).

    Also, I'm under no illusion: eliminating religion is a Quixotic goal... but I'd like to see it's influence greatly diminished. I'd like to see fundamentalism vastly diminished in both number of adherents and influence, and I'd like to see all many of "nones" (atheists, agnostics, vaguely spiritual) increase.

    Also, I'll be HAPPY to change my mind on the existence of any gods or goddesses, given any compelling evidence. I'm not in favor of not having an afterlife... I'd gladly take a few thousand more years (as long as it's not in a torture chamber)... but I think it's more important for people to be realistic... or at least value having doubts. What disturbs me that most is that faith (not having doubts) is itself glorified and held up as a model of virtue. This bothers me less when clearly compartmentalized (what the talented religious scientist must do).

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    1. Also I agree Ben Carson is intelligent, talented, and even an asset to society (outside the realm of political leader). He's clearly not mentally ill in that he can feed or take care of himself and his family. So in that regard claiming he's "nuts" or "crazy" is a bit of hyperbole.

      However, one thing I think may cause some confusion with Ben is his field of specialty: medicine.

      MDs are not, in my opinion, necessarily experts in science or scientific thinking. Their professional expertise indeed relies on the scientific progress we've made, but they themselves are not necessarily good examples of scientific thinkers, even in a compartmentalized way. I don't know, but I suspect that may especially be true of surgeons (gifted or otherwise).

      This article (from one of my favorite websites: sciencebasedmedicine) gets into the distinction with a little more depth especially wrt Dr. Carson:
      https://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/presidential-candidate-ben-carson-shilling-for-mannatech-with-his-own-alternative-cancer-cure-testimonial/

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    2. I think there may well be something to that generally regarding doctors

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    3. I can attest to the number of surgeons who are not "scientific" thinkers. I know many who attned some pretty conservative churches. I think they, in some sense, are actually MORE prone to being swayed by intelligent design type thinking. They see themselves as special, life savers or life givers. The idea that some mindless process is driving life is repugnant to them I think

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  2. "The reason I'm not a real firebrand is that I know from personal experience that people of faith are not necessarily the enemy. I will take allies where I can find them! Indeed some self professed secularists ... who are strong on the issue of separation of church and state... are also religious believers. I don't have any desire to make enemies of such people."

    TK. I'm glad to hear you say that. It's my view as well. We have to take allies where we can find them. I will certainly fight any attempt to compromise separation of church and state but a Holy War against religious people themselves is folly.

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  3. Indeed, it was religious people-the Presybtarian types-in America who gave us this separation. Many religious people nevertheless totally agree about the secular nature of the state. That's sufficient for our current purposes.

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  4. There have been stories that the nons are increasing particularly in the Democratic party.

    But even so you see the power of belief-all the Dems-Hillary, Obama, etc-say they are believers.

    It's also important to distinguish between 'fundamentalists' and other believers and people of faith. The second class will often be on our side in terms of secular goals

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  5. Yes I agree on the afterlife! LOL. I don't believe in it but would like it if it were on offer. I certainly could use a few more thousand years! LOL

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  6. David Silverman likes to remind people that even though he's opposed to all religion, he's been (for 20 some years now) happily married to a woman who's a theist (a practicing Jew). So he likes to stress that religious people deserve respect and that it's absolutely false to claim they are stupid because of their beliefs. What he's really focused on in practice is fighting unfairness ... placing one religion on a pedestal of favorable treatment wrt the government. And he knows he's on the bleeding edge, but he claims that the data indicates that his more militant tactics have made it easier on all nones... including the "can't we all get along?" types, which I'd have to include myself in if I was being objective about how I actual try to relate to people on a daily basis. He used to annoy me much more so in the past... but I largely support his efforts now, even though I'd never want to put myself in his shoes.

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  7. I'm a none. I do think of the federal level we've come along way. At the state level there are some issues in places like Kansas teaching Creationism alongside evolution.

    Of course, they'll just say it's their state and it's none of the business of us liberals

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  8. Ben Carson's boogie man: the "secular progressive movement" ... by which he means people that don't have unquestioning faith in the BS right wing conspiracy theories and theology he buys into:

    http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/11/08/ben-carson-pushes-back-against-questions-of-honesty/?_r=0

    Trump is having a ball with this. I've seen the 1st signs of grumbling about Trump in the comments section of Breitbart the last few days... because he's going after Ben and his stories and beliefs. Breitbart readers have been pretty solidly pro-Trump, but I suppose they are more anti-MSM than they are pro-Trump. That would conveniently fit the narrative that Breitbart (as an alternative media source) would like to promote. Most laughable have been the comments suggesting Trump is no better than the MSM... doing everything humanly possible to white-wash HRC's record while heaping suspicious on a fine man like Ben Carson. Despicable! Lol.

    Also, this should be no surprise either, but I notice that we get nothing but "radio silence" from the likes of Trump fans Coulter, Ingraham and Levin when their boy Trump starts pooping over what they would otherwise hold sacred. Specifically W not keeping us safe, the Iraq war having been a fiasco, and now taking the MSM's side in it's examination of Dr. Carson.

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    1. I do think that in the short term, this may even be helping Carson. The Weekly Standard-which is the quintessential establishment rag-is now embracing Carson.

      In fact, this piece that says it's time to reconsider Dr. Ben is by none other than the Bill Kristol.

      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2015/11/08/dr_ben_carson_reconsidered_369454.html

      If Trump is alienating the base that's not a good thing for him or us-by us I mean me and other Trump Democrats. LOL

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  9. TOTALLY O/T, but I thought I'd share... I happened to run into the guy who put up this website today while out on a walk:
    http://www.solardarkroom.com/galleries/butterflies/

    I live about a 1/4 mile from a Monarch butterfly overwintering site, so I thought I'd drop by to see if they're clustering this year (it's strange: there are quite a few Eucalyptus trees around, but they keep coming back to the same place... a cluster of maybe a dozen trees or so, that don't seem to be any different than the surrounding trees they're mixed in with). The clusters (in the past few years), are not very big looking. Maybe about 2012 or so we had a pretty good year, with about 40,000 Monarchs clustered there (that's a figure given to me by a volunteer who was out there trying to make an estimate).

    I imagine you must get them up in your area during the summer months, no? Their numbers have declined because their host plant (i.e. what the Monarch caterpillars eat) has been decimated in recent years: milkweed. The proliferation of Monsanto type genetically modified seeds that are impervious to weed killers like Round Up has caused naturally occurring milkweed to decline. I'm actually not an anti-Monsanto or even anti-GMO person, but I think the evidence in this case is pretty clear. To their credit Monsanto has funded some organizations trying to promote people growing milkweed in home gardens to offset the effects, but I doubt this has been enough to help much. So if you do have a garden Mike, consider growing a bit of milkweed! There are probably several species that aren't half bad looking that would do well where you live. For example, Asclepias purpurascens.

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    1. The guy who put up that webiste is of course a photographer, and he was out there with a giant lensed camera trying to get some photos of the clusters. You'll note that photos #126 and #127 are the Queen and Monarch butterflies respectively. The Queen's are a related species, only they don't migrate. Their caterpillars also eat milkweed (and only milkweed) like the Monarchs. There's a 3rd species called Soldier that also has milkweed for a host plant, but he (the photographer) confirmed we don't get those in these parts. The Monarch is unique in that it undertakes an amazing long migration every year. I showed him this photo I took this past summer in my yard. I have a few Asclepias fascicularis plants (the most prevalent native milkweed in this area) growing in my back yard, and I was super interested to find a few of these Queen caterpillars this year, in addition to the many Monarchs I normally get. At first I thought they were mutant Monarchs, but by accident I ran across a youtube video on the Queens a couple months back. (The Queen is the larger one in the photo, only because it's more mature in this case).

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    2. In 2012/2013 I became a milkweed fanatic... I built a greenhouse and I tried growing 21 different species from seeds I ordered online. I had no idea what I was doing... but I must have had about 1000 plants or so ready to plant by late March (when the Monarchs have mostly departed this area to the North). My thought was to have the "best butterfly garden EVER" (to be said in a Donald Trump voice) by fall of 2013, but I miscalculated: it only takes one pregnant female to lay about 200 eggs... and the Monarchs never fully abandon the area... my healthy plants were almost entirely wiped out in a month or so... I caused a population boom... I had chrysalises all over the yard... hanging off any horizontal surface. Lol... it was fun, but I realize now that probably wasn't a good idea. It's much better if people at more Northern latitudes plant the milkweed.

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    3. A Gulf Fritillary butterfly emerging from it's chrysallis in a park in downtown SB last weekend. (a 4 year old girl pointed it out to me... the professional butterfly photographer I ran into today says he's never seen that in the wild... the Gulf Fritillary's host plant is the passion flower vine).

      Haha... OK, I'll stop now. Enjoy!

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    4. OK, I can't help myself: it was so nice out today... this one's not butterfly related, but this is the view from the county park outside my back gate today... looking West down the "Gaviota Coast" ... which is about 25 miles of undeveloped coastal land ... really more like 80 miles, if you count the stretch that runs North after Point Conception. Those are the Eucalyptus trees I mentioned above on the right. Ronald Reagan's ranch is at the top of those mountains... about 10 miles down the coast. I think it's about 600 acres altogether. I've driven up to the driveway, but that's about it. The Young Republicans have taken it over. I can only imagine the strange rituals which must take place there now. Lol.

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