Republicans are understandably trying to spin it as all Obama's fault.
http://blogs.rollcall.com/white-house/white-house-deflects-blame-gop-gains/?dcz=emailalert
Some pundits are also getting into the act. Greg Sargent asks the question How badly has the Obama era damaged Democrats?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/11/04/how-badly-has-the-obama-era-damaged-the-democratic-party/
Here's my argument: he hasn't damaged them at all. But let's take it from the other side-what has he done to damage Democrats? Is it because he's black? Or because he passed Obamacare? What is it?
I think in analyzing this question you have to start with the fact that the President's party really does well over the course of eight years.
Show me the counter example in the postwar era where this has been the case. The GOP did terribly under Ike, the Dems lost ground in Congress under LBJ, in 1972, Nixon had his landslide 49-1 win over McGovern and yet the party lost ground in Congress.
Over Reagan's two terms, the party lost the Senate and lost seats in the House. Clinton saw the Gingrich revolution and Bush saw Congress go Dem in 2006.
What you see is when the President wins election he tends to have coattails-as Obama did in 2008 and Reagan had in 1980. But during his term, Congress usually ends up with the other party.
Democrats did do better in 2012 when Obama was on the ticket. That year the GOP had a big advantage in the Senate with all those seats up for re-election and yet the Dems managed to gain two seats.
So it hasn't been when Obama's been on the ticket, the problem has been when he's off.
I get it that the Dems have major issues. But this is not about Obama, it's the issue of the House and at the state level.
More and more the Dems are becoming the Presidential party and the GOP is becoming the House and state government party.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/11/04/morning-plum-a-brutal-reality-check-for-the-democratic-party/
Overall Tuesday was a bad day for Democrats in most races-they did take back the Pennsylvania Supreme Court and hold onto their one statewide Democrat in Mississippi. Allison Grimes held on in Kentucky.
But mostly it was a very bad day. But I don't really see this is anything other than the changing demographics-the now Solid GOP South-and the Dems' structural inability to get it's voters to the polls on off year elections.
There is another meme-that Bevin's win was a win for the Trump Effect. I have two reactions to this:
1. I doubt it. I think it's simply this is Kentucky and it is a very conservative Republican place. My guess is any Republican would have won that race.
2. If people want to call it the Trump Effect, though they are welcome too do so. If this makes more primary voters think Trump can win based on Bevin I'm all for them having this impression.
Howard Dean says turnout was 30% in Kentucky. He made some comment along the lines of "If all the people who will now lose health benefits had shown up to vote, it may well have gone the other way."
ReplyDeleteThe electorate is stupid. They don't show up. Now when they lose their benefits they'll probably be told it was Obama's fault this is happening, and they'll probably believe it and become enraged at Democrats... because they're dumb asses.
But turnout in Presidential years usually is higher. That's Dem problem their voters only show up on Presidential years
ReplyDeleteAlso Bevin apparently stopped talking to the local press. And this was apparently an attractive move for the electorate. Yeah! Stick it to the liberal media! Wooo-hooo!
ReplyDeleteDumb asses.
I think Trump's move to throw out the reporter from the Spanish language station (Univision?) is just going to get more and more common. Now NBC has been excluded from GOP debates. Maybe the candidate the GOP choses will refuse to debate Hillary because it'll just be playing into the "liberal media's hands." And this will be wildly cheered by the right wing voters... who don't like the feeling of cognitive dissonance that debates cause them.
It wouldn't be surprised to see the next GOP candidate make a practice of this: excluding all but the fawning media from his presence. And if he wins election, keeping the ABCs, CNNs, NBCs, and CBSs from his presence at press conferences.
They'll be more like church sermons. You don't allow "blasphemous" questions at church sermons do you? I expect this to go over big with the right wing electorate. And I expect the low-information folks in the "middle" to start to accept that as the new normal. The new "middle of the road."
This is how I see the Republican Electorate:
https://youtu.be/q7BQKu0YP8Y?t=83
"I think it's simply this is Kentucky and it is a very conservative Republican place. My guess is any Republican would have won that race."
ReplyDeleteMike, take a look the party affiliation for recent Kentucky governors: almost all Democrats (including the most recent one):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Governors_of_Kentucky