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Thursday, November 12, 2015

The Two Lanes of the GOP Race

What was interesting in the debate Tuesday night both in the main debate stage and the Kid's Table was that there was an explicit battle between lanes but not within them.

Trump didn't attack Carson as many thought he might and neither did Jeb attack Rubio. The establishment lane personified by Jeb and also by Christie in the earlier debate seems to be trying to look ahead to the general election already.

Both Christie and later Jeb answered every question with the words Hillary Clinton. It's understandable why these two desperate establishment candidates are trying this.

But it doesn't seem to impress the base. While a lot of the punditry seemed very impressed by Christie, I had thought Jindal did a good job calling him out as a 'big government Republican' and RINO.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/11/jindal-gives-christie-juice-box-for.html

What interested me yesterday is that Rush Limbaugh said that a lot of people who he talked to were very impressed by Jindal's slam. Remember Rush speaks to the base, is a very important bellwether for the base.

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2015/11/11/jindal_s_juice_box_insult_of_christie

So it's not clear that the establishment lane is going to win. Right now if you add up the outsider lane-Trump, Carson, and Cruz they're at 60%.

It makes you think about what Steve Schmidt says that a lot of the insiders are simply in denial. They imagine there's this secret group of people who can control this.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/425750/gop-establishment-thinks-trump-could-win

It seems to me that Ben Carson, Donald Trump, and Ted Cruz are all positioned where they'd want to be at this point in the race.

Rubio is where he'd want to be. The word is Jeb did better. I think he was better but remember if a student comes in with a 50 average after 7 tests and gets a 75 on his eight, he's still not in great shape.

And while the donors are supposedly happy with his performance I notice that Jeb has gotten a lot of negative backlash from the base-along with Kasich.

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2015/11/11/kasich_and_bush_exposed_on_bank_bailouts_and_amnesty

Kasich is clearly the big loser as shown by a Politico piece that showed how much criticism he's received from the base for his attempts to 'stop the madness.'

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/john-kasich-backlash-debates-215762

I don't know if Jeb can regain the clear ground he lost to Rubio after the last debate but what he might be able to do is take Rubio down whether or not that helps himself or not.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/10/us/politics/bush-allies-threaten-wave-of-harsh-attacks-on-rubio-an-ex-mentee.html?_r=0

Here Jeb is on his new Hillary Clinton message. I'm the right choice because Hillary Clinton. 

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/11/politics/jeb-bush-marco-rubio-electability/

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