Many believe after a tough day like yesterday this is more or less it for Ben.
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/ben-carson-melts-down-at-press-conference-begs-reporters-to-stop-being-mean-to-him/22978/
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/carson-florida-press-conference-west-point
I would not be so quick to pronounce Carson dead.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/426728/ben-carson-liberal-media-victim
Ok,. so that piece is by the conservative National Review. But in a GOP primary fight, they-not me or Tom Brown-are whose opinion counts. Will it hurt his poll numbers and if so how much?
I don't know. Who can confidently predict anything about this GOP primary anymore? I will say it won't shock me if this isn't the end for Ben.
And look-I don't agree with this, obviously- but many conservatives will buy what Ben said yesterday in talking about how the media let Obama skate on not showing his college transcripts and how he had a 'composite girlfriend' in his own autobiography
http://www.amazon.com/Dreams-My-Father-Story-Inheritance/dp/1400082773/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1446912875&sr=8-1&keywords=barrack+obama
Is Obama using a composite girlfriend in his book the same as Carson making up a guy name Bob he allegedly stabbed at the age of 14? I don't think so, but it should be obvious some in the GOP base may see an equivalence.
I mean one big difference is it's surreal that Carson is insisting that the media is persecuting him by saying he never tried to hit his mother with a hammer rather than the other way around. It's all rather surreal.
Ok, that aside-what do I as a Trump Democrat want to happen?.
Unlike my good friend, Tom Brown, I'm torn. Tom, I think would like to see Carson disappear in a minute as he worries that if Carson were to win the GOP primary he could actually beat Hillary.
I don't believe this for a minute. For starters I'd ask Tom to do a state by state analysis and name me the states that were for Obama in 2012 that will go for Carson in 2016. They don't exist.
But I also think that Tom in a big picture way seems to be concerned about something you might call the 'reality quotient' in American life. He worries that Ben with every utterance decreases it and so hope he drops out ASAP.
This is not my focus at all. I've long since made peace with the fact that many in the GOP base have a scarcely nonexistent reality quotient-wishing this were different won't make it so. And let's not kid ourselves. If Carson drops out tomorrow, this doesn't increase the base's RQ. I mean Pat Robertson ran for President in the 80s and 90s. Did his losses prove the base was increasing its RQ? Michelle Bachman lost in 2012. Same question
My prodigal reader Greg-I'm joshing with you buddy-makes this argument that's sort of the mean between Tom and I.
"I get why you see Carson as a positive and I partially agree. Making the GOP look ridiculous has its benefits but as I said above, another loss, especially to a Clinton, gives me pause as to how certain elements may react."
"My own dept, filled with people who have Masters degrees in science fields and MDs, has surprised me even at my most cynical. To hear some of the stuff that is circulating in their brains is a little.............disheartening to be honest."
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/11/ben-carson-calls-those-who-say-he-didnt.html?showComment=1446862735148#c6586426726163130400
Now this argument I get more. I'm from NY so I don't exactly have to worry about the GOP taking out its frustrations out on the state. Even many GOPers are relatively reasonable here.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/ny-republican-lashes-out-at-benghazi.html
In a state like Georgia I get why Greg is more wary. After all, the people of Georgia will be the one's to pay when the party goes down to defeat again. I love the optics of them having to smell Hillary's farts again-considering how they've always treated her-but I get what Greg's saying.
In his office Greg says there's "a constant chatter about firearms and numerous statements about wanting to either personally kill Obama/Hillary or watch someone else do it"
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/ben-carson-melts-down-at-press-conference-begs-reporters-to-stop-being-mean-to-him/22978/
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/carson-florida-press-conference-west-point
I would not be so quick to pronounce Carson dead.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/426728/ben-carson-liberal-media-victim
Ok,. so that piece is by the conservative National Review. But in a GOP primary fight, they-not me or Tom Brown-are whose opinion counts. Will it hurt his poll numbers and if so how much?
I don't know. Who can confidently predict anything about this GOP primary anymore? I will say it won't shock me if this isn't the end for Ben.
And look-I don't agree with this, obviously- but many conservatives will buy what Ben said yesterday in talking about how the media let Obama skate on not showing his college transcripts and how he had a 'composite girlfriend' in his own autobiography
http://www.amazon.com/Dreams-My-Father-Story-Inheritance/dp/1400082773/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1446912875&sr=8-1&keywords=barrack+obama
Is Obama using a composite girlfriend in his book the same as Carson making up a guy name Bob he allegedly stabbed at the age of 14? I don't think so, but it should be obvious some in the GOP base may see an equivalence.
I mean one big difference is it's surreal that Carson is insisting that the media is persecuting him by saying he never tried to hit his mother with a hammer rather than the other way around. It's all rather surreal.
Ok, that aside-what do I as a Trump Democrat want to happen?.
Unlike my good friend, Tom Brown, I'm torn. Tom, I think would like to see Carson disappear in a minute as he worries that if Carson were to win the GOP primary he could actually beat Hillary.
I don't believe this for a minute. For starters I'd ask Tom to do a state by state analysis and name me the states that were for Obama in 2012 that will go for Carson in 2016. They don't exist.
But I also think that Tom in a big picture way seems to be concerned about something you might call the 'reality quotient' in American life. He worries that Ben with every utterance decreases it and so hope he drops out ASAP.
This is not my focus at all. I've long since made peace with the fact that many in the GOP base have a scarcely nonexistent reality quotient-wishing this were different won't make it so. And let's not kid ourselves. If Carson drops out tomorrow, this doesn't increase the base's RQ. I mean Pat Robertson ran for President in the 80s and 90s. Did his losses prove the base was increasing its RQ? Michelle Bachman lost in 2012. Same question
My prodigal reader Greg-I'm joshing with you buddy-makes this argument that's sort of the mean between Tom and I.
"I get why you see Carson as a positive and I partially agree. Making the GOP look ridiculous has its benefits but as I said above, another loss, especially to a Clinton, gives me pause as to how certain elements may react."
"My own dept, filled with people who have Masters degrees in science fields and MDs, has surprised me even at my most cynical. To hear some of the stuff that is circulating in their brains is a little.............disheartening to be honest."
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/11/ben-carson-calls-those-who-say-he-didnt.html?showComment=1446862735148#c6586426726163130400
Now this argument I get more. I'm from NY so I don't exactly have to worry about the GOP taking out its frustrations out on the state. Even many GOPers are relatively reasonable here.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/ny-republican-lashes-out-at-benghazi.html
In a state like Georgia I get why Greg is more wary. After all, the people of Georgia will be the one's to pay when the party goes down to defeat again. I love the optics of them having to smell Hillary's farts again-considering how they've always treated her-but I get what Greg's saying.
In his office Greg says there's "a constant chatter about firearms and numerous statements about wanting to either personally kill Obama/Hillary or watch someone else do it"
As to the question about Ben-I'm kind of divided. As you know I have a horse in this GOP clown show and his name is Donald Trump. He really makes me laugh. Yes, I will be watching him tonight on SNL.
There's a piece in the Daily Beast that asks whether Trump will blow up the GOP on SNL tonight.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/11/07/will-trump-blow-up-the-gop-on-snl.html
Uh, that's why I'm watching!
I still am not totally sure that Bill Clinton hasn't put him up to this. LOL.
I do celebrate every time a new poll shows him ahead of Carson again. On the other hand I'm not sure it's optimum for Carson to disappear over night-remember the goal is for the GOP primary to go as counterproductively as possible.
Now we Democrats shouldn't have to worry too much because the GOP always the most counter-productive choice possible. But I don't know that the optimum thing is for Carson to go away overnight. That might somehow produce too much clarity.
On the other hand, here is a Vox piece that is pretty optimistic for my purposes. It argues that contrary to what a lot of the Beltway pundits are saying, Ted Cruz would not be the big beneficiary if Carson drops out but Trump.
There's a piece in the Daily Beast that asks whether Trump will blow up the GOP on SNL tonight.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/11/07/will-trump-blow-up-the-gop-on-snl.html
Uh, that's why I'm watching!
I still am not totally sure that Bill Clinton hasn't put him up to this. LOL.
I do celebrate every time a new poll shows him ahead of Carson again. On the other hand I'm not sure it's optimum for Carson to disappear over night-remember the goal is for the GOP primary to go as counterproductively as possible.
Now we Democrats shouldn't have to worry too much because the GOP always the most counter-productive choice possible. But I don't know that the optimum thing is for Carson to go away overnight. That might somehow produce too much clarity.
On the other hand, here is a Vox piece that is pretty optimistic for my purposes. It argues that contrary to what a lot of the Beltway pundits are saying, Ted Cruz would not be the big beneficiary if Carson drops out but Trump.
http://www.vox.com/2015/11/6/9682082/ben-carson-dropout-trump
What a shock-the Beltway media is wrong again. Remember when it comes to the GOP primary predictions by the press are mostly just special pleading for what they think should happen.
One argument we are hearing now is that primary polls are literally meaningless. Don't mean anything at all. This is just absurd. The polls may not mean everything but they far from mean nothing.
It's kind of like saying stock prices don't matter in the market. But perception is reality. Politics-like Wall St-is far from some exact science. If someones poll numbers keep flagging the money is going to waver on the idea that they will get it done once the caucuses start.
This FiveThrityEight piece is pretty axiomatic.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-primary-rules-might-doom-carson-and-cruz/
The rules may doom Carson, Trump, and Cruz-punchline? The establishment is going to be ok, It might be taking a little longer or more circuitous route this time but everything will be fine for the establishment.
This piece rather absurdly speaks of even Christie and Fiorina as viable candidates but not the big outsider three.
Mike, pretty good summary of my position. However in a previous post you asked me about people in the middle. It occurs to me my dad might qualify. He spends a lot of time online for a 98 year old... And he's a daily Facebook user. He and I had a talkbthe other day about conspiracy nuts. He mentioned that he sees both left and right wing examples on Facebook all the time. When he talks to my half bro he's like a voice of sanity... We talked about some of my half bros more loony ideas and his responses. And still I can see where the constant flood of lunacy he encounters online has affected his thinking in ways. Mostly its right wing lies that take root. It's disturbing to see.
ReplyDeleteSo if you saw Carson's press conference yesterday you'll note that he veered off into conspiracy theory loony land about press scrutiny of Obama and his "sealed" records. And he got silence back on that. I would have been silent too because I would have been dumbstruck. It's not till just now that I found what pool of conspiracy theory lies he was drawing from and the simply debunking of them done years ago. But someone like my dad might hear that and wonder. He's probably received similar claims from old codger friends of his who've been passing them around.
The lying cynics on the right have found a "word of mouth" method enhanced by technology to make people trust garbage and distrust actual journalism.
After watching Ben I figure hell be just fine after this. He successfully turned it around to him being persecuted by an unfair media. He was helped by Politico's over ambitious initial headline. He never "admitted to fabrication." Now it's in the Dan Rather zone... Instead of the focus being on Ben, its on the persecution complex of the right at the biased hands of the media. Too bad!
Other examples of people in the middle. Any body who's views aren't strictly partisan. Scott Sumner for one. He's recently stated he leans Democratic this election. He also thinks Trump is terrible. Sadowski may be another. Not all people in the middle are low information like I implied. Even Cochrane thinks Trump would be a disaster!
DeleteI also know some middle of the road folks back in my hometown that are gun nuts like me. I doubt they believe the NRA lunacy, but they probably resent "big city" problems causing politicians to want to take away their toys... Toys that they personally have never had a problem with.
There are some like that who may be liberal except for abortion too. Or except for some other issue.
What I'm trying to say is that a few thoughtful voters might just be naturally split. If the lying cynics can muddy the waters through word of mouth style electronic rumormongering, it just might be enough to push them into the GOP camp.
That's another reason I hate seeing completely false rumors coming out of the mouths of candidates. Fiorina is guilty too but she appears to be no threat.
Ben seems to live and breath false rumors. Like Trump he is shameless. However, unlike Trump he probably actually believes what he's saying!
Yes I think that's an accurate comparison. Trump knows he's kind of a charlatan and has a good time with it.
DeleteBen I think really believes the charlatan is Armstrong Williams
Look say what you want about Sumner but no way would he ever be taken in by anything Ben Carson would say.
ReplyDeleteHis opposition to Trump is obvious too-as Trump's whole theory of governance seems to be trade autarky and a zero sum game of 'national competitiveness'-I didn't even have to read Sumner to know his view on Trump.
He has recently said that he's given up on the GOP at this point. He understands they''re a joke.
I have a theory about Sumner (and maybe Cochrane) and their natural conservatism and their disgust with elements of liberalism. Of course it has to do with their economic outlook, but I think another part of it has to do with being university professors.
DeleteIt's been a while since I was in college, but I hear from different sources that the environment can get kind of toxic there. Not everyone agrees, but some people I respect (and who I know to be generally liberal otherwise) are tired of what they call the "regressive left" on college campuses. I wonder if that's perhaps at least in part what motivates Sumner to always want to balance out the obvious criticism he sees of the right (amongst people with brains, whom he no doubt spends most of his time with) by shining a light on what he considers to be the stupidity of liberals as well.
As just one example, one of my favorite philosophy profs, Peter Boghossian, is always complaining about the pushback he gets from the "regressive left" ... and yet, he says he's probably more liberal in many ways than most (he was a supporter of Lawrence Lessig for example).
Just a thought. But I'm happy that when the GOP gets so crazed that even someone who's sick of overly zealous liberal ideology (that they may encounter more than most simply because of the environment they work in), prefers Dems overall to the crazy delusional stupidity they see on the right.
They should be welcomed in the Democratic party. If they think the the Democrats are too liberal in some areas, then join the party and make your thoughts known. The other party isn't even an option at this point.
Carson is truly amazing and I think maybe unprecedented in US Presidential politics-at least since the start of the 20th century.
ReplyDeleteI want to say he's just a total charlatan whose entire campaign is nothing but a book tour but I don't know that this is what he personally thinks but it is what his manager Armstrong Williams probably thinks.
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/exposed-unstable-ben-carson-is-a-mere-puppet-of-his-business-manager-armstrong-williams/22955/
Now I think that Trump is also unprecedented though totally different. In many ways he too is kind of using the run as a book tour-though he has clearly wanted to run for office for a long time and unlike Ben, calls all his own shots.
In that sense he and Ben are opposites-Ben seems to be at AW's beck and call.
Wow. This is a major American party we are talking about
Yes, Tom as you said, Carson should be fine. Look what Rush is saying-this is all an 'electronic lynching of Dr. Carson'
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2015/11/06/despicable_politico_lie_spreads_around_the_world_as_american_media_attempts_a_political_assassination_of_dr_carson
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2015/11/06/they_think_they_ve_got_ben_carson_with_a_very_cleverly_written_politico_story
And now the WSJ looks into another of Carson's stories:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wsj.com/articles/ben-carsons-past-faces-deeper-questions-1446861864
It's a little more difficult when the WSJ and the National Review keep digging up dirt on him. The NR has already called his Mannatech statements "bald faced lies."
Carson is insane. He keeps blaming "secular progressives" for all his troubles. Did you see how he tried to make a deal with the media yesterday to get them to only do positive stories on him from now on in exchange for him revealing the true identity of his would be stabbing victim?
But the WSJ and NRO want Rubio or someone establishment. The base is certainly dismissing the wSJ who was full throated for amnesty by now!
ReplyDeleteMaybe... but other than on immigration, don't you think that right winger media talking heads (like Rush perhaps) read those publications and pay some attention? I think they may very well be happy with the op ed page in general (in the WSJ), on other than immigration issues.
DeleteWhat if a caller on Rush's show brings up the WSJ article on Ben? Will his dismiss that as "liberal media bias" and a "lynching?"
I'm going to keep googling "Carson Westmoreland" to see where that leads... because it sounds like he claimed Westmoreland himself offered him a appointment to Westpoint.
DeleteAlso now thanks the the WSJ, we have "Carson MLK" to google.
It's possible this trickle of stories will continue to leak out. Perhaps it won't hurt him in Iowa, but I suspect this will catch up with him sooner or later.
It can only be a good think IMO. Even if he does end up winning the GOP nomination, it's good that these stories become widely known as soon as they come out so they have time to sink in to American's thick skulls.
Also I guess "Carson Yale test burned" ... looks like another questionable story he told that isn't holding up to fact checking.
DeleteI'm always amazed by how some extreme fundamentalists seem to think lying is OK. Perhaps it's because they have to lie to themselves all the time to maintain their belief?
I like watching atheist / theist debates... and I swear, when the subject turns to the Bible, the theists often resort to saying some thing like "The Bible is the best attested book from antiquity" ... which isn't a technical lie, but it's very misleading. Yes, there are more Greek manuscript copies of the NT than any other book from antiquity, but what they fail to mention is that 95% of those manuscripts were created in the 9th century!!! There's NOTHING AT ALL from the 1st century, and exactly four small fragments from the entirety of the 2nd century (maybe as many as six, depending on some uncertainty in dating it). Our oldest "manuscript" is dated to about 125 CE and is no bigger than a credit card... and it doesn't even mention Jesus... it doesn't even contain a complete sentence. (it's called P52). It's not until the mid to late 4th century that we have anything approaching a complete NT manuscript (Codex Vaticanus and the Codex Sinaticus).
But you never hear one of these so called "moral" and "honest" apologists mention that... or I should say, you RARELY hear them mention it. At best they will concede that's the case if pressed on the issue.
They're so desperate to maintain the illusion, they feel that lying or being intentionally misleading is somehow justified. That's the best I can figure. Maybe they think their world will fall apart if they try to be honest about it.
Delete"What if a caller on Rush's show brings up the WSJ article on Ben? Will his dismiss that as "liberal media bias" and a "lynching?"
DeleteRemember unlike you and most decent people I listen to Rush from time to time to keep track. In a word yes. Believe me, the WSJ has no privileged place with Rush and friends anymore.
See also what happened to George Will. The base is in total anarchy and yes WSJ is seen as establishment central and not just because of immigration.
One reason is it really is where the RNC and friends plant their point of view.
They are not going to turn on Ben Carson because the WSJ says so.
DeleteBusiness Insider headline: Carson may have fabricated story about being most honest student. Lol!
ReplyDeleteMike, did you see this?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/11/06/study-religious-kids-are-jerks.html
This one is from a bit ago, but is also relevant:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/21/children-religion-fact-fiction_n_5607009.html
"It can only be a good think IMO. Even if he does end up winning the GOP nomination, it's good that these stories become widely known as soon as they come out so they have time to sink in to American's thick skulls."
ReplyDeleteIt's important to get the difference between the GOP base and the rest of the electorate.
Running in a general election couldn't be more different.
All these stories about Ben? Right now liberals are taking it easy-because we're trying to see if it's possible that he reallly could win.
If he did win the gloves come off and no one will be ripping him apart more than I am.
Because I don't give him too hard a time-or Trump-right now. I note the comic relief aspect but I don't give him too hard a time.
If and when he wins the GOP nomination, the gloves come off.
I will have more on this tomorrow but Nate Silver gets this too. He was saying-and I'll provide links later-that while Hillary and say Rubio might be a tossup, Hillary vs Trump, Carson, or even Cruz will be more like Hillary with a 75% chance.
Here is some good news-Trump is ahead again in the rolling averages of RCP both nationally and in Iowa. Not to toot my own horn-but someone has to-I have been saying for a couple of weeks that I think that Carson may have peaked.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Now Tom, this quote by Adalai Stevenson says it all regarding the reality quotient. A woman said to him every thinking person is with him and he answered, "Yes, Madam, but I need a majority.''
ReplyDeletehttp://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/every_thinking_person_will_vote_for_you_but_i_need_a_majorityhttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/