It's amazing in that it's the surge that wasn't. There is not much evidence in the most recent polls. What is happening is that the media has its narrative. The one thing the Beltway is certain about is that the GOP establishment will win.
Jeb's not doing so hot.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/yes-jeb-stuff-happens-like-your-4-poll.html
And the Carly Fiorina surge is now wholly over-her numbers are now lower than when they begun the surge.
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/carly-fiorinas-earlier-surge-in-the-polls-now-has-been-completely-erased/22743/
The media was besotted by her because the media needed someone to beat Trump but now that she has been shown to be a congenital liar-with a record of not even paying her own campaign staff, that flavor of the month is done.
Now that she's done process of elimination kind of means it has to be Rubio.
"Marco Rubio is hot, hot, hot — or at least that’s what you’d surmise if you’ve been reading the political news media over the last week or so. “Is Marco Rubio the New Favorite to Win the GOP Nomination?” asks MSNBC. “Why Marco Rubio’s Chances Are Rising,” reads the New York Times. “Rubio gains the hot hand,” says US News. The Los Angeles Times says he’s “surging in the polls.”
"So how much has Rubio risen recently? Ten points? Twenty points? Nope, nothing like that at all. While he has ticked up a bit, a bit is all it is. We’re seeing the creation of a self-fulfilling prophecy, driven mostly by the media but probably with the active participation of elite Republicans who see general election potential in Rubio."
"By any objective measure, Rubio isn’t doing much better than he was a month or a year ago. But we’re at the beginning of a cycle that could push Rubio higher, all because a bunch of people are making a prediction about what they think is going to happen in five or six months, not because of what’s actually happening now. It’s a kind of dispatch from the future — but one that helps create the future it’s predicting."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/10/06/why-everyone-suddenly-decided-marco-rubio-will-be-the-gop-nominee/
Right. The proverbial self-fulfilling prophecy.
"So here’s the story of Rubio’s support among the Republican electorate: It was between five and seven percent for most of 2014, then it rose to around 11 percent this May, then it fell to around five percent by September, and in the past month it has risen to its current average of 9.7 percent. So all the movements have been within 5 points or so, including this latest little improvement. Whatever else you might say about Rubio, you can’t say that voters are flocking to him in any significant quantity. He’s currently in fourth place, behind Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina. In Iowa he’s in fifth, and in New Hampshire he’s in seventh."
However, then Paul Waldman argues that will probably change-because the media says so.
"To be clear, there are perfectly valid reasons why we in the media think that Rubio has an excellent chance at being the nominee and would be a strong general election candidate. If history is any guide, the “outsider” candidates will eventually fall, and Rubio is the only “insider” candidate whose support is going up, not down. Scott Walker is gone, Jeb Bush is struggling, and none of the other officeholders seem to be generating any interest among voters. Rubio has long had strong approval ratings among Republicans, so even those who are now supporting someone else don’t dislike him. He’s an excellent speaker both with prepared texts and extemporaneously. When you hear him talk he sounds informed and thoughtful, and much less reactionary than his actual ideas would suggest. He presents a young, Hispanic face for a party that desperately needs not to be seen as the party of old white guys"
So Waldman seems to think that the media has the power and the right to be kingmaker.
For just this reason its' great when they're wrong and am still hoping they are wrong again.
Like on Biden.
The new Quinnipiac polls also show Hillary Clinton leading by sizable margins in all three states. In Florida, Clinton has 43 percent, Joe Biden has 19 percent, and Bernie Sanders has 19. In Ohio, it’s 40-21-19. In Pennsylvania, it’s 45-25-19.
For all of Sanders’ strength in Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton may retain a big advantage in many of the contests that follow. By the way: Despite these numbers, Quinnipiac decided to declare in its headline (based on the general election matchups) that Biden is “hot” in the swing states. It’s almost as if the polling outfit is trying to encourage a particular narrative."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/10/07/morning-plum-donald-trump-is-a-true-genius-at-marketing-himself/
Jeb's not doing so hot.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/yes-jeb-stuff-happens-like-your-4-poll.html
And the Carly Fiorina surge is now wholly over-her numbers are now lower than when they begun the surge.
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/carly-fiorinas-earlier-surge-in-the-polls-now-has-been-completely-erased/22743/
The media was besotted by her because the media needed someone to beat Trump but now that she has been shown to be a congenital liar-with a record of not even paying her own campaign staff, that flavor of the month is done.
Now that she's done process of elimination kind of means it has to be Rubio.
"Marco Rubio is hot, hot, hot — or at least that’s what you’d surmise if you’ve been reading the political news media over the last week or so. “Is Marco Rubio the New Favorite to Win the GOP Nomination?” asks MSNBC. “Why Marco Rubio’s Chances Are Rising,” reads the New York Times. “Rubio gains the hot hand,” says US News. The Los Angeles Times says he’s “surging in the polls.”
"So how much has Rubio risen recently? Ten points? Twenty points? Nope, nothing like that at all. While he has ticked up a bit, a bit is all it is. We’re seeing the creation of a self-fulfilling prophecy, driven mostly by the media but probably with the active participation of elite Republicans who see general election potential in Rubio."
"By any objective measure, Rubio isn’t doing much better than he was a month or a year ago. But we’re at the beginning of a cycle that could push Rubio higher, all because a bunch of people are making a prediction about what they think is going to happen in five or six months, not because of what’s actually happening now. It’s a kind of dispatch from the future — but one that helps create the future it’s predicting."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/10/06/why-everyone-suddenly-decided-marco-rubio-will-be-the-gop-nominee/
Right. The proverbial self-fulfilling prophecy.
"So here’s the story of Rubio’s support among the Republican electorate: It was between five and seven percent for most of 2014, then it rose to around 11 percent this May, then it fell to around five percent by September, and in the past month it has risen to its current average of 9.7 percent. So all the movements have been within 5 points or so, including this latest little improvement. Whatever else you might say about Rubio, you can’t say that voters are flocking to him in any significant quantity. He’s currently in fourth place, behind Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina. In Iowa he’s in fifth, and in New Hampshire he’s in seventh."
However, then Paul Waldman argues that will probably change-because the media says so.
"To be clear, there are perfectly valid reasons why we in the media think that Rubio has an excellent chance at being the nominee and would be a strong general election candidate. If history is any guide, the “outsider” candidates will eventually fall, and Rubio is the only “insider” candidate whose support is going up, not down. Scott Walker is gone, Jeb Bush is struggling, and none of the other officeholders seem to be generating any interest among voters. Rubio has long had strong approval ratings among Republicans, so even those who are now supporting someone else don’t dislike him. He’s an excellent speaker both with prepared texts and extemporaneously. When you hear him talk he sounds informed and thoughtful, and much less reactionary than his actual ideas would suggest. He presents a young, Hispanic face for a party that desperately needs not to be seen as the party of old white guys"
So Waldman seems to think that the media has the power and the right to be kingmaker.
For just this reason its' great when they're wrong and am still hoping they are wrong again.
Like on Biden.
The new Quinnipiac polls also show Hillary Clinton leading by sizable margins in all three states. In Florida, Clinton has 43 percent, Joe Biden has 19 percent, and Bernie Sanders has 19. In Ohio, it’s 40-21-19. In Pennsylvania, it’s 45-25-19.
For all of Sanders’ strength in Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton may retain a big advantage in many of the contests that follow. By the way: Despite these numbers, Quinnipiac decided to declare in its headline (based on the general election matchups) that Biden is “hot” in the swing states. It’s almost as if the polling outfit is trying to encourage a particular narrative."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/10/07/morning-plum-donald-trump-is-a-true-genius-at-marketing-himself/
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