He is always ready to declare a new era of the kind of reasonable conservatism that exists only in his own imagination is about to break out.
Now he sees it as being brought forward by Ryan and Rubio. They are young so this means the future is theirs. He was on Meet the Press and again made the ageist attack on Hillary.
This is a tired meme though no doubt if Rubio wins he will use it often. But this is the whole problem with running solely on biography. Because he's younger than her in years doesn't mean his ideas are fresh anymore than because he's a Latino this magically makes his policies great for Latinos.
In this piece here Brooks just assumes that Rubio will be the guy without reference to anything as gauche as the polls as actual voters.
"Voters don’t have to know the details of their nominee’s agenda, but they have to know that the candidate is capable of having an agenda. Donald Trump and Ben Carson go invisible when the subject of actual governance comes up."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/opinion/the-paul-ryan-and-marco-rubio-moment.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fdavid-brooks&action=click&contentCollection=opinion®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection&_r=0
This assumption is where he goes wrong. He's presuming that Republicans in 2016 are thinking that it doesn't matter what the agenda is but there has to be one. What does Brooks base this optimistic thought on?
In the piece, just like he did on Meet the Press he just skates over Ben Carson and Donald Trump. The voters can't be serious about them, even if the polls say the opposite.
But some GOP insiders are thinking the unthinkable:
“Trump is a serious player for the nomination at this time,” says Ed Rollins, who served as the national campaign director for Reagan’s 1984 reelection and as campaign chairman for Mike Huckabee in 2008. Rollins is not alone in his views. “Trump has sustained a lead for longer than there are days left” before voting begins in Iowa, says Steve Schmidt, who managed John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign. “For a long time,” Schmidt says, “you were talking to people in Washington, and there was a belief that there was an expiration date to this, as if there’s some secret group of people who have the ability to control the process.”
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/425750/gop-establishment-thinks-trump-could-win
Brooks continues to believe in this secret group of people Who ever such powerful people are, surely Reince Priebus isn't one of them who is looking very Boehner like in this war over debates.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/is-reince-the-new-boehner
Brooks on MTP yesterday has the race down to Ted Cruz and Rubio. He's half way there. They are in the conversation but so is Trump and Carson. But Brooks simply said he wants to believe they will flame out any day now.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/rubios-team-handicaps-primary.html
Let's get specific. Trump has a path to victory that's pretty clear if you look at the polling averages on Real Clear Politics.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Yes, Ben Carson is leading in Iowa. I think it's reasonable to give him Iowa-though Trump has an excellent ground game. If his game is superior to Carson's he still could pull it out.
However, for argument's sake let's give Iowa to Ben. Ok, then we move on to NH where Trump according to RCP leads Carson 30% to 13%. Not even close.
After that Jeb and Rubio are tied at 9%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html
Then there's South Carolina where Trump is at over 33%, Carson is at 20%, and Rubio is next at 8.3%. Trump has an excellent ground game in SC.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/trump-and-rubio-square-off-215269
In Florida Trump is ahead of both Rubio and Bush.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html
I do think you can argue that if Jeb is out by Florida Rubio could win-he has like 14% and Jeb has 12% while Trump is just under 25%.
He's leading big in Nevada. He's got 38%, Carson's at 22% and no one else even has 10%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_republican_presidential_caucus-5336.html
When do Brooks' secret group of people restore order? If they wait till after Nevada Trump could already be way ahead.
P.S. Rubio has a real good chance in Florida if the field winnows as it's the one state where even Fiornia has 10%. So if she and Jeb are gone by then Rubio could have a real good shot.
Even so, the same thing is true for Trump. If Ben Carson is out by then-and he could be; it sort of depends on how he does after what we presume will be an Iowa win-Trump would be in very good shape.
Will Jeb be there by Florida? Good question. He needs to convince the donors that he's viable. A money freeze would be the end.
It depends how he does in NH. Based on current RCP averages, Trump has a huge lead but Jeb is tied with Rubio at third behind Carson's 13%.
If he were able to finish ahead of Carson with a stronger ground game this could give him enough buzz to get to Florida. But if say Rubio finishes third in Iowa and then he's the one to finish second in NH it will be more difficult for Jeb to keep it going.
What will sustain Fiorina till Florida?
P.S.S. Carson may have gone ahead in Iowa and gotten close in national polls but Trump still has a huge lead on who's best on the economy with GOP primary voters. '
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump
Now he sees it as being brought forward by Ryan and Rubio. They are young so this means the future is theirs. He was on Meet the Press and again made the ageist attack on Hillary.
This is a tired meme though no doubt if Rubio wins he will use it often. But this is the whole problem with running solely on biography. Because he's younger than her in years doesn't mean his ideas are fresh anymore than because he's a Latino this magically makes his policies great for Latinos.
In this piece here Brooks just assumes that Rubio will be the guy without reference to anything as gauche as the polls as actual voters.
"Voters don’t have to know the details of their nominee’s agenda, but they have to know that the candidate is capable of having an agenda. Donald Trump and Ben Carson go invisible when the subject of actual governance comes up."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/opinion/the-paul-ryan-and-marco-rubio-moment.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fdavid-brooks&action=click&contentCollection=opinion®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection&_r=0
This assumption is where he goes wrong. He's presuming that Republicans in 2016 are thinking that it doesn't matter what the agenda is but there has to be one. What does Brooks base this optimistic thought on?
In the piece, just like he did on Meet the Press he just skates over Ben Carson and Donald Trump. The voters can't be serious about them, even if the polls say the opposite.
But some GOP insiders are thinking the unthinkable:
“Trump is a serious player for the nomination at this time,” says Ed Rollins, who served as the national campaign director for Reagan’s 1984 reelection and as campaign chairman for Mike Huckabee in 2008. Rollins is not alone in his views. “Trump has sustained a lead for longer than there are days left” before voting begins in Iowa, says Steve Schmidt, who managed John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign. “For a long time,” Schmidt says, “you were talking to people in Washington, and there was a belief that there was an expiration date to this, as if there’s some secret group of people who have the ability to control the process.”
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/425750/gop-establishment-thinks-trump-could-win
Brooks continues to believe in this secret group of people Who ever such powerful people are, surely Reince Priebus isn't one of them who is looking very Boehner like in this war over debates.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/is-reince-the-new-boehner
Brooks on MTP yesterday has the race down to Ted Cruz and Rubio. He's half way there. They are in the conversation but so is Trump and Carson. But Brooks simply said he wants to believe they will flame out any day now.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/10/rubios-team-handicaps-primary.html
Let's get specific. Trump has a path to victory that's pretty clear if you look at the polling averages on Real Clear Politics.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Yes, Ben Carson is leading in Iowa. I think it's reasonable to give him Iowa-though Trump has an excellent ground game. If his game is superior to Carson's he still could pull it out.
However, for argument's sake let's give Iowa to Ben. Ok, then we move on to NH where Trump according to RCP leads Carson 30% to 13%. Not even close.
After that Jeb and Rubio are tied at 9%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html
Then there's South Carolina where Trump is at over 33%, Carson is at 20%, and Rubio is next at 8.3%. Trump has an excellent ground game in SC.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/trump-and-rubio-square-off-215269
In Florida Trump is ahead of both Rubio and Bush.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html
I do think you can argue that if Jeb is out by Florida Rubio could win-he has like 14% and Jeb has 12% while Trump is just under 25%.
But even if you give Florida to Rubio, Trump right now has to be considered a huge favorite in both NH and SC.
He's leading big in Nevada. He's got 38%, Carson's at 22% and no one else even has 10%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_republican_presidential_caucus-5336.html
When do Brooks' secret group of people restore order? If they wait till after Nevada Trump could already be way ahead.
P.S. Rubio has a real good chance in Florida if the field winnows as it's the one state where even Fiornia has 10%. So if she and Jeb are gone by then Rubio could have a real good shot.
Even so, the same thing is true for Trump. If Ben Carson is out by then-and he could be; it sort of depends on how he does after what we presume will be an Iowa win-Trump would be in very good shape.
Will Jeb be there by Florida? Good question. He needs to convince the donors that he's viable. A money freeze would be the end.
It depends how he does in NH. Based on current RCP averages, Trump has a huge lead but Jeb is tied with Rubio at third behind Carson's 13%.
If he were able to finish ahead of Carson with a stronger ground game this could give him enough buzz to get to Florida. But if say Rubio finishes third in Iowa and then he's the one to finish second in NH it will be more difficult for Jeb to keep it going.
What will sustain Fiorina till Florida?
P.S.S. Carson may have gone ahead in Iowa and gotten close in national polls but Trump still has a huge lead on who's best on the economy with GOP primary voters. '
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump
No comments:
Post a Comment