You would think the answer would be obvious-it wants to see good numbers, for nonfarm to beat expectations.
But while if this is the case that's good news for the economy, it's not necessarily good news for the market. Right now markets around the world are falling out of worry about the numbers.
But the worry is what do markets want to see? Sure good numbers are good news but then the caustic logic of the market is that this means the Fed can then to the rate hike it's so itchy to do and then that will actually hurt the economy.
So are we rooting for good or bad numbers here?
"Due at 8:30 a.m. ET the August nonfarm payrolls report is the final read on monthly labor conditions out before the Federal Reserve makes a decision on interest rates at its meeting in about two weeks."
"To me the data tells me we are right on track for a rate hike," said Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel, which has more than $95 billion in assets under management."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/03/all-eyes-on-the-fed-big-jobs-friday.html
Of course this is what makes the market so hard to predict. If the Fed were to come out tomorrow and say don't worry, they've decided to put the hike on hold you'd think then that this would be good news. But maybe not as some would see it as confirmation that the economy really is slowing and can't handle a hike.
"Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect a slight increase in nonfarm payrolls to 220,000 in August, with unemployment ticking down a tenth of a percentage point to 5.2 percent and average hourly earnings increasing at a steady 0.2 percent."
"Importantly for many strategists, they said a decline in unemployment and an increase in wages could support the Fed's case for inflation, which has stayed below the 2 percent target."
"Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, expects 218,000 new jobs and said the market will likely only react strongly if the report shows "an unambiguously strong number."
"I think we'd need to see a number north of 250,000," he said.
So that will lead the market to rise? A mild beat will lead to more selling? Ok, so we'll see what happens within a couple of hours.
UPDATE: Whatever the market wanted to hear out of nonfarm payroll they didn't hear it.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/04/wall-street-set-for-rocky-ride-ahead-of-jobs-report.html
But while if this is the case that's good news for the economy, it's not necessarily good news for the market. Right now markets around the world are falling out of worry about the numbers.
But the worry is what do markets want to see? Sure good numbers are good news but then the caustic logic of the market is that this means the Fed can then to the rate hike it's so itchy to do and then that will actually hurt the economy.
So are we rooting for good or bad numbers here?
"Due at 8:30 a.m. ET the August nonfarm payrolls report is the final read on monthly labor conditions out before the Federal Reserve makes a decision on interest rates at its meeting in about two weeks."
"To me the data tells me we are right on track for a rate hike," said Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel, which has more than $95 billion in assets under management."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/03/all-eyes-on-the-fed-big-jobs-friday.html
Of course this is what makes the market so hard to predict. If the Fed were to come out tomorrow and say don't worry, they've decided to put the hike on hold you'd think then that this would be good news. But maybe not as some would see it as confirmation that the economy really is slowing and can't handle a hike.
"Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect a slight increase in nonfarm payrolls to 220,000 in August, with unemployment ticking down a tenth of a percentage point to 5.2 percent and average hourly earnings increasing at a steady 0.2 percent."
"Importantly for many strategists, they said a decline in unemployment and an increase in wages could support the Fed's case for inflation, which has stayed below the 2 percent target."
"Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, expects 218,000 new jobs and said the market will likely only react strongly if the report shows "an unambiguously strong number."
"I think we'd need to see a number north of 250,000," he said.
So that will lead the market to rise? A mild beat will lead to more selling? Ok, so we'll see what happens within a couple of hours.
UPDATE: Whatever the market wanted to hear out of nonfarm payroll they didn't hear it.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/04/wall-street-set-for-rocky-ride-ahead-of-jobs-report.html
It seems the market is shooting first and asking questions later as the report may have been pretty good besides the top line number of 'only' 171,000 new jobs.
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