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Thursday, September 17, 2015

The Tale of Two Debates: Beltway vs. GOP Base

The consensus of the Beltway media and the GOP insiders is Fiorina won the debate going away and Trump bombed.

"TRUMP FAILED BIG TEST AT DEBATE? Adam Nagourney makes a case that I think we’ll be hearing a lot of from analysts: Donald Trump didn’t make the transition (not yet, anyway) from showy front-man to someone that GOP voters can picture as president. To wit:

"For nearly 30 minutes, not long after the debate began, this most colorful of candidates faded to the sidelines as his rivals debated in detail issues like Syria and how to deal with Vladimir V. Putin, the Russian president, subjects that Mr. Trump appeared to struggle with when the questions came to him….By the end of the night, it was the familiar image of Mr. Trump as the jaunty brawler, and even bully, that was likely to again be the takeaway.

That sounds awfully optimistic. We’ll see."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/09/17/morning-plum-trump-explains-to-gop-rivals-that-taxing-rich-is-not-socialism/

This view today is all over the Beltway press both on cable and in print. You can put together a very impressive collage of the amount of pieces that sound just like that.

Trump the bully with little to say on real policy got put in his place and by a strong woman who knows the facts.

Even though when you look at it she was wrong on a lot of things and he actually got some tings right like her time at HP. As Greg Sargent points out he actually did say something substantive on taxes that made more sense than any of the other GOPers.

But let's not fool ourselves, The media revulsion at Trump's alleged lack of policy specifics is not at all sincere.

When they don't have it in for a candidate they will let him coast the whole election-like W in 2000. The Beltway press' austere standards are always very selective.

Today there is an echo chamber that Trump is done. Last night was the beginning of the fall. Like this Vox piece whose headline blares Trump lost the debate and it wasn't even close.

http://www.vox.com/2015/9/17/9343187/donald-trump-lost-republican-debate

Same with Slate.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/09/gop_establishment_may_be_hopeful_after_second_primary_debate_the_beginning.html

Daily Beast.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/17/trump-s-debate-shtick-turns-stale-withers-under-fiorina-assault.html

The GOP Insiders.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/gop-debate-politico-caucus-winners-and-losers-213714

And of course, Politico.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/donald-trump-after-2016-cnn-debate-213783

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/republican-debate-donald-trump-213762

So the consensus is in. I note that as usual the Washington Post's Eugene Robinson has a more fresh and independent take.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/sorry-republicans-its-still-donald-trumps-world/2015/09/17/816c9f72-5d61-11e5-8e9e-dce8a2a2a679_story.html

Ditto Talking Points Memo.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/jeb-bush-debate-loser

But they are outliers. However Trump tweeted this today"Every poll done on debate last night, from Drudge to Newsmax to Time Magazine, had me winning in a landslide. "

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump

Guess what? The polls all bear him out-Fox, News Max, Drudge, and Time Magazine.

http://time.com/4037510/poll-second-republican-presidential-debate/

http://www.drudgereport.com/now.htm


http://fox5sandiego.com/2015/09/16/poll-who-do-you-think-won-the-cnn-gop-debate/

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/newsmax-poll-second-republican/2015/09/17/id/691953/

All these polls have him winning by a mile Fiorina in every one a distant second with him roughly doubling her up-or more in each one. 

So it;s the tale of two debates. That watched by the Beltway press and the GOP insiders-who populated the audience and added to the anti Trump feel of the debate and the actual GOP voters who don't think he bombed at all. 

In fact they think he won. They think Fiorina did well but he did much better. 

We'll see whose views matter more in a week or two.












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