The wise men of political science keep telling is that there's nothing to see here-it's early and things will change.
What it comes down to is that they keep telling us that Trump is this year's Rick Perry or Herman Cain but it's becoming arguable that he's actually Mitt Romney. His numbers are much more consistent with Romney's numbers in 2012 then any of the flashes in a pan that he's compared to.
"Trump’s campaign was initially compared to early 2012 frontrunners Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich. But according to the Washington Post, Trump’s poll numbers so far have closely mirrored that of eventual 2012 nominee Mitt Romney."
"In the summer of 2011, Perry and Gingrich maintained a 10-point or higher lead for about two weeks, as Trump did this year. But as the Post zoomed out on the Republican contest, it showed Perry's and Gingrich's numbers fell as Romney's rose. Trump has similarly started to leave his competitors behind. The Post noted that not every campaign’s support looks the same, but the numbers remain compelling."
"After the summer of Trump, which included giving children helicopter rides and signature Make America Great Again™ hats, it's hard to greet any poll that shows the real estate mogul at the top of the Republican field with surprise.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/09/john-sides-explains-trump.html
It's shocking how long he's led and the breadth of his support-it cuts through every state and he is preferred by very large margins to everyone else in the field by huge margins. He beats Jeb-his closest competitor-on the economy 44%-9%.
"But the breadth of Mr. Trump’s coalition is surprising at a time of religious, ideological and geographic divisions in the Republican Party. It suggests he has the potential to outdo the flash-in-the-pan candidacies that roiled the last few Republican nominating contests. And it hints at the problem facing his competitors and the growing pressure on them to confront him, as several, like Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, are starting to do."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/23/us/politics/why-donald-trump-wont-fold-polls-and-people-speak.html?_r=0
This was written a month ago. Since then his numbers have risen. Remember when 20% was his ceiling? Now it's 30%. That's fully a third of the GOP voters.
What it comes down to is that they keep telling us that Trump is this year's Rick Perry or Herman Cain but it's becoming arguable that he's actually Mitt Romney. His numbers are much more consistent with Romney's numbers in 2012 then any of the flashes in a pan that he's compared to.
"In the summer of 2011, Perry and Gingrich maintained a 10-point or higher lead for about two weeks, as Trump did this year. But as the Post zoomed out on the Republican contest, it showed Perry's and Gingrich's numbers fell as Romney's rose. Trump has similarly started to leave his competitors behind. The Post noted that not every campaign’s support looks the same, but the numbers remain compelling."
"After the summer of Trump, which included giving children helicopter rides and signature Make America Great Again™ hats, it's hard to greet any poll that shows the real estate mogul at the top of the Republican field with surprise.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/09/john-sides-explains-trump.html
It's shocking how long he's led and the breadth of his support-it cuts through every state and he is preferred by very large margins to everyone else in the field by huge margins. He beats Jeb-his closest competitor-on the economy 44%-9%.
"But the breadth of Mr. Trump’s coalition is surprising at a time of religious, ideological and geographic divisions in the Republican Party. It suggests he has the potential to outdo the flash-in-the-pan candidacies that roiled the last few Republican nominating contests. And it hints at the problem facing his competitors and the growing pressure on them to confront him, as several, like Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, are starting to do."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/23/us/politics/why-donald-trump-wont-fold-polls-and-people-speak.html?_r=0
This was written a month ago. Since then his numbers have risen. Remember when 20% was his ceiling? Now it's 30%. That's fully a third of the GOP voters.
Yesterday's new poll was very good news for Trump as he led by 12 points over Ben Carson but it was terrible news for Walker and also bad for the GOP establishment.
"When Republicans and Republican-leaning voters are asked who they would support for the GOP nomination for president, Donald Trump leads the pack at 30%, which is up 4 points from early August before the first debate. Ben Carson (18%) has increased his vote share by 13 points and now holds second place. Jeb Bush (8%) has dropped by 4 points and now stands in a tie for third with Ted Cruz (8%). Following behind are Marco Rubio (5%), Carly Fiorina (4%), and Mike Huckabee (4%). Scott Walker (3%), who held third place in Monmouth’s August poll, has dropped 8 points since then. Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Rand Paul each get 2%. The remaining six candidates included in the poll score no higher than 1% each.
“None of the establishment candidates is having any success in getting an anti-Trump vote to coalesce around them. In fact, any attempt to take on Trump directly only seems to make him stronger,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ."
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/6f102b2c-508f-4bc3-8cd9-6f650f4bcc3a.pdf
Where have you gone, Scott Walker? How much longer can he hold onto the fiction that he's a frontrunner in this campaign?
A lot of times the know-it-all political scientists explain away the low numbers of the mainstream candidates by saying that in such a large field each person's support gets diluted.
In this latest poll though the combined number of who were supposed to be the presumptive mainstream favorites-Walker, Rubio, and Jeb-is 16%-less than Carson by himself.
The political scientists keep telling us that the received wisdom will reassert itself at some point-John Sides thinks there is another candidate who at some point will supplant Trump with the media(!)M
At some point maybe things return to form but it's hard to see how right now.
P.S. My guess is that Trump will continue to lead for awhile but that his first big test will be the start of the primaries. Do those voting for him in the polls actually come out to vote for him? Ie, his ground game is going to be the first big test.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/09/on-trumps-endgame-does-he-have-ground.html
"When Republicans and Republican-leaning voters are asked who they would support for the GOP nomination for president, Donald Trump leads the pack at 30%, which is up 4 points from early August before the first debate. Ben Carson (18%) has increased his vote share by 13 points and now holds second place. Jeb Bush (8%) has dropped by 4 points and now stands in a tie for third with Ted Cruz (8%). Following behind are Marco Rubio (5%), Carly Fiorina (4%), and Mike Huckabee (4%). Scott Walker (3%), who held third place in Monmouth’s August poll, has dropped 8 points since then. Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Rand Paul each get 2%. The remaining six candidates included in the poll score no higher than 1% each.
“None of the establishment candidates is having any success in getting an anti-Trump vote to coalesce around them. In fact, any attempt to take on Trump directly only seems to make him stronger,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ."
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/6f102b2c-508f-4bc3-8cd9-6f650f4bcc3a.pdf
Where have you gone, Scott Walker? How much longer can he hold onto the fiction that he's a frontrunner in this campaign?
A lot of times the know-it-all political scientists explain away the low numbers of the mainstream candidates by saying that in such a large field each person's support gets diluted.
In this latest poll though the combined number of who were supposed to be the presumptive mainstream favorites-Walker, Rubio, and Jeb-is 16%-less than Carson by himself.
The political scientists keep telling us that the received wisdom will reassert itself at some point-John Sides thinks there is another candidate who at some point will supplant Trump with the media(!)M
At some point maybe things return to form but it's hard to see how right now.
P.S. My guess is that Trump will continue to lead for awhile but that his first big test will be the start of the primaries. Do those voting for him in the polls actually come out to vote for him? Ie, his ground game is going to be the first big test.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/09/on-trumps-endgame-does-he-have-ground.html
"tied with Margin of Error" ... Lol... who's she?
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