Jonathan Chait games out what Trump's endgame might look like.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/08/what-is-the-trump-endgame.html
The punchline is not matter what happens the most likely outcome is Trump goes third party.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/09/geoff-waite-vs-donald-trump-on.html
I'd love to follow Brian Beutler here that Trump will take the nomination but I don't see the GOP allowing this. It's not just that Trump will be a disaster in the general election but that he's really not a conservative.
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/122689/donald-trump-favorite-win-republican-primary
His new Twitter war with the Club for Growth underscores this.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-club-for-growth
This is not a problem for the base but it's giving the establishment hives. I can't see them allowing him to take the nomination. If he really is able to translate his poll numbers into lots of votes in primaries they will use some insider chicanery to deny him the nomination. Maybe the states' delegates will simply refuse to come out for him even though that's what the people of the states voted for.
At the end of the day it's about delegates and not votes.
But whether or not Trump ends up pledging not to go third party he will in this case-and even Republicans who have told Trump they would trust him more if he took the pledge won't fault him in that case and may well follow him to his third party run.
But this takes us to big question is assuming Trump continues to dominate the polls is whether or not he has the kind of ground game to turn these poll numbers into votes and primary wins or not. Some say yes.
Here's the very pro-Trump Breitbart blog who say he has the most aggressive ground game in Iowa. Let's hope so.
“One hundred people showing up for a staffer? I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Chuck Laudner, a veteran Iowa organizer who oversees Trump’s efforts here. “They kept saying the same thing: They want something different.”
"For many Americans, the Trump presidential campaign amounts to a billionaire talking endlessly, and entertainingly, on television. But here in Iowa, it’s another story. Trump is trying to beat the politicians at their own game, building one of the most extensive field organizations in the Republican field."
"The groundwork laid by Trump’s sizeable Iowa staff, with 10 paid operatives and growing, is the clearest sign yet that the unconventional candidate is looking beyond his summer media surge and attempting to win February’s first-in-the-nation caucuses."
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2015/08/13/donald-trump-storms-iowa-with-most-aggressive-ground-game/
CNN also had a piece on Trump's organization yesterday. It sounds like things are going pretty well:
"For a campaign that's made a splash in entering the GOP race, it's no surprise that Donald Trump's organization in Iowa -- home of the first-in-the-nation caucus -- is anything but politics as usual."
"In a state where the key to a caucus win is to "organize, organize, organize," the Trump campaign is now tasked with the challenge of turning curious Iowans into volunteers and full-fledged Trump evangelists who will turn out on caucus night in February."
"One sign the campaign is serious about their strategy in the Hawkeye State: The Trump campaign hired top Iowa strategist Sam Clovis, once proclaimed as a "conservative icon," away from the Perry campaign. Clovis, who was Rick Perry's Iowa co-chairman, will serve as national co-chair and senior policy adviser."
"Clovis joins Trump's Iowa state director, well-respected veteran campaign operative Chuck Laudner."
"Earlier this month, Laudner told CNN the campaign has garnered the intensity and excitement usually reserved for the election week -- still over a year away. Volunteers have been pouring in so fast that the campaign has had trouble tracking them all."
"It's a very good problem to have," Laudner said. "People are locked in and excited. I've never seen that before."
"Despite the rapid influx of eager Iowans, Laudner said the campaign has been able to identify volunteers all the way down to the precinct level (there are 1,774 precincts in Iowa)."
"Trump boasts 10 full-time staffers -- and growing -- in the Hawkeye State, led by Laudner. And now, they are bolstered by numerous volunteers who represent the Trump campaign at county fairs, parades, local Republican Party dinners and meetings, and even RAGBRAI, a week-long bicycle ride across the state attracting over 20,000 riders."
"The campaign is set to open its West Des Moines office next month, but in the meantime, it's taking its show on the road in the #TrumpBus, a tour bus and mobile office wrapped in blue with Trump's logo and signature "Make America Great Again!" tagline."
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/31/politics/donald-trump-iowa-organization/
Indeed, it's taking on something of an-you guessed it-Apprentice feel to it.
"The Trump campaign's Iowa co-chairwoman, Tana Goertz, is a former "Apprentice" contestant. This is the first foray into politics for the entrepreneur and mother of two and she's surprising longtime politicos within the campaign by recruiting "caucus leaders" around the state with an "Apprentice"-style competition."
"The first competition, complete with a mock-boardroom, found a "super-volunteer" to represent the Trump campaign in Davis County. Goertz placed a Facebook ad for an event called "STUMP 4 TRUMP" at the Davis County Fair in July. The premise was simple: Whoever collected the most names, numbers, and email addresses of Trump supporters, won."
"The fact that more than 20 people showed up to compete to volunteer is unheard of in a state where most campaigns are signing up anyone who might be willing to get involved."
"From Day 1, when we started talking about what this campaign is, I said we should try different things. This isn't politics as usual. We're open to fresh ideas," Laudner said. "You can't create that excitement. It's helping us identify who we need to be successful on caucus night."
It almost sounds as if demand has surpassed supply. And there have been comparisons made to Perot's 1992 campaign-which is a prototype to Trump's rich billionaire pitch-I'm too rich to be bought-in many ways.
http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/will-trumps-campaign-lead-voters-down-same-path-as-perot-did-in-1992/
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/08/what-is-the-trump-endgame.html
The punchline is not matter what happens the most likely outcome is Trump goes third party.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/09/geoff-waite-vs-donald-trump-on.html
I'd love to follow Brian Beutler here that Trump will take the nomination but I don't see the GOP allowing this. It's not just that Trump will be a disaster in the general election but that he's really not a conservative.
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/122689/donald-trump-favorite-win-republican-primary
His new Twitter war with the Club for Growth underscores this.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-club-for-growth
This is not a problem for the base but it's giving the establishment hives. I can't see them allowing him to take the nomination. If he really is able to translate his poll numbers into lots of votes in primaries they will use some insider chicanery to deny him the nomination. Maybe the states' delegates will simply refuse to come out for him even though that's what the people of the states voted for.
At the end of the day it's about delegates and not votes.
But whether or not Trump ends up pledging not to go third party he will in this case-and even Republicans who have told Trump they would trust him more if he took the pledge won't fault him in that case and may well follow him to his third party run.
But this takes us to big question is assuming Trump continues to dominate the polls is whether or not he has the kind of ground game to turn these poll numbers into votes and primary wins or not. Some say yes.
Here's the very pro-Trump Breitbart blog who say he has the most aggressive ground game in Iowa. Let's hope so.
“One hundred people showing up for a staffer? I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Chuck Laudner, a veteran Iowa organizer who oversees Trump’s efforts here. “They kept saying the same thing: They want something different.”
"For many Americans, the Trump presidential campaign amounts to a billionaire talking endlessly, and entertainingly, on television. But here in Iowa, it’s another story. Trump is trying to beat the politicians at their own game, building one of the most extensive field organizations in the Republican field."
"The groundwork laid by Trump’s sizeable Iowa staff, with 10 paid operatives and growing, is the clearest sign yet that the unconventional candidate is looking beyond his summer media surge and attempting to win February’s first-in-the-nation caucuses."
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2015/08/13/donald-trump-storms-iowa-with-most-aggressive-ground-game/
CNN also had a piece on Trump's organization yesterday. It sounds like things are going pretty well:
"For a campaign that's made a splash in entering the GOP race, it's no surprise that Donald Trump's organization in Iowa -- home of the first-in-the-nation caucus -- is anything but politics as usual."
"In a state where the key to a caucus win is to "organize, organize, organize," the Trump campaign is now tasked with the challenge of turning curious Iowans into volunteers and full-fledged Trump evangelists who will turn out on caucus night in February."
"One sign the campaign is serious about their strategy in the Hawkeye State: The Trump campaign hired top Iowa strategist Sam Clovis, once proclaimed as a "conservative icon," away from the Perry campaign. Clovis, who was Rick Perry's Iowa co-chairman, will serve as national co-chair and senior policy adviser."
"Clovis joins Trump's Iowa state director, well-respected veteran campaign operative Chuck Laudner."
"Earlier this month, Laudner told CNN the campaign has garnered the intensity and excitement usually reserved for the election week -- still over a year away. Volunteers have been pouring in so fast that the campaign has had trouble tracking them all."
"It's a very good problem to have," Laudner said. "People are locked in and excited. I've never seen that before."
"Despite the rapid influx of eager Iowans, Laudner said the campaign has been able to identify volunteers all the way down to the precinct level (there are 1,774 precincts in Iowa)."
"Trump boasts 10 full-time staffers -- and growing -- in the Hawkeye State, led by Laudner. And now, they are bolstered by numerous volunteers who represent the Trump campaign at county fairs, parades, local Republican Party dinners and meetings, and even RAGBRAI, a week-long bicycle ride across the state attracting over 20,000 riders."
"The campaign is set to open its West Des Moines office next month, but in the meantime, it's taking its show on the road in the #TrumpBus, a tour bus and mobile office wrapped in blue with Trump's logo and signature "Make America Great Again!" tagline."
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/31/politics/donald-trump-iowa-organization/
Indeed, it's taking on something of an-you guessed it-Apprentice feel to it.
"The Trump campaign's Iowa co-chairwoman, Tana Goertz, is a former "Apprentice" contestant. This is the first foray into politics for the entrepreneur and mother of two and she's surprising longtime politicos within the campaign by recruiting "caucus leaders" around the state with an "Apprentice"-style competition."
"The first competition, complete with a mock-boardroom, found a "super-volunteer" to represent the Trump campaign in Davis County. Goertz placed a Facebook ad for an event called "STUMP 4 TRUMP" at the Davis County Fair in July. The premise was simple: Whoever collected the most names, numbers, and email addresses of Trump supporters, won."
"The fact that more than 20 people showed up to compete to volunteer is unheard of in a state where most campaigns are signing up anyone who might be willing to get involved."
"From Day 1, when we started talking about what this campaign is, I said we should try different things. This isn't politics as usual. We're open to fresh ideas," Laudner said. "You can't create that excitement. It's helping us identify who we need to be successful on caucus night."
It almost sounds as if demand has surpassed supply. And there have been comparisons made to Perot's 1992 campaign-which is a prototype to Trump's rich billionaire pitch-I'm too rich to be bought-in many ways.
http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/will-trumps-campaign-lead-voters-down-same-path-as-perot-did-in-1992/
No comments:
Post a Comment