Trump's Right wing populism is brilliant. To show why just listen to what a Massachusetts Tea Party heavy hitter like Howie Carr is saying about Trump:
"The RINOs sent all their sluggers out there to take him deep. First was Juan Ellis Bush, the guy who describes the heinous crimes of “valedictorians,” which is Jeb-speak for illegal aliens– as “acts of love.” Just ask Kate Steinle’s family. Say Buenos noches, Juan."
"Then there was Chris “Krispy Kreme” Christie. He lectures you to give up your Social Security that you paid into in order to provide for everyone who couldn’t be bothered to work, some of whom may even be US citizens. Gov. Krispy can’t figure out why he’s not catching fire – not even a grease fire at the fryolator."
This is the key I think. Trump has problematized the Southern strategy of the GOP. It has always had some internal contradictions and fissures that may no longer be tenable just as the New Deal coalition of Northern liberals, white ethnics and Catholics, and Southern racists finally split apart in 1968.
George McGovern has the reputation of a loser-after all, who wants to take advice from a guy who lost 49 states?-but he was the one who begin the process of putting the Democratic coalition back together again-with it paying fruition with the elections of Clinton and Obama over the last 20 years.
http://www.amazon.com/What-Means-Democrat-George-McGovern-ebook/dp/B005HN209O/ref=la_B000APO1L4_1_5?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1441154208&sr=1-5
I think it's been inevitable that the Southern strategy (SS) would at some point hit this rupture because of it's inherent contradiction just like the old New Deal Democrat coalition was doomed to its 1968 rupture.
But the rise of Trump makes it a good chance that 2016 will be 1968 for the GOP's SS. Because assuming Trump continues to dominate the polls and wins some actual primaries-which is not a given; it depends if he has any ground game going on in NH and IOWA-then one way or the other I suspect things are going to come to a head.
If the GOP accepts him as the candidate they will lose and lose big. But if they use establishment GOP muscle to not count his votes it will give him justifiable reason to go third party. And this will bring out a lot of the base.
I think it could be as much as 20% but even 5% would be deadly. Jonathan Chait as gamed this out:
"The media’s obsessive coverage of Donald Trump has been stalked by a cloud of self-imposed shame. The Huffington Post made an early decision to relegate Trump coverage to its entertainment section, reflecting a wide sense that Trump’s contribution to the race was diversionary. It is almost certainly true that Trump will not win the Republican nomination, and even more certainly true that he will not be elected president. But the Trump candidacy — and, in particular, its endgame — will have an enormous impact on the outcome of the presidential race. The question is not whether Trump will affect the outcome of the race, but how."
"Trump could change the race by stamping his image upon the Republicans in a way they cannot escape. Trump has made himself the symbol of racism against Latinos in the United States. He is absolute brand poison. Democrats are already airing television ads connecting other Republican candidates to Trump."
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/08/what-is-the-trump-endgame.html
By the way, this is totally fair as the GOP really is and has always been Trumpist on immigration before he even got on the scene.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/08/trump-didnt-invent-trumpism.html
I don't think the GOP can accept Trump as he's not a conservative. He flouts the SS.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/09/trump-thumbs-his-nose-at-gop-grover.html
The SS was always about leading prejudiced whites to vote their prejudices rather than their economic interests.
Trump's shrewd move is to directly speak to their prejudices while at the same time being a lot more responsive to their economic interests."
"The RINOs sent all their sluggers out there to take him deep. First was Juan Ellis Bush, the guy who describes the heinous crimes of “valedictorians,” which is Jeb-speak for illegal aliens– as “acts of love.” Just ask Kate Steinle’s family. Say Buenos noches, Juan."
"Then there was Chris “Krispy Kreme” Christie. He lectures you to give up your Social Security that you paid into in order to provide for everyone who couldn’t be bothered to work, some of whom may even be US citizens. Gov. Krispy can’t figure out why he’s not catching fire – not even a grease fire at the fryolator."
This is the key I think. Trump has problematized the Southern strategy of the GOP. It has always had some internal contradictions and fissures that may no longer be tenable just as the New Deal coalition of Northern liberals, white ethnics and Catholics, and Southern racists finally split apart in 1968.
George McGovern has the reputation of a loser-after all, who wants to take advice from a guy who lost 49 states?-but he was the one who begin the process of putting the Democratic coalition back together again-with it paying fruition with the elections of Clinton and Obama over the last 20 years.
http://www.amazon.com/What-Means-Democrat-George-McGovern-ebook/dp/B005HN209O/ref=la_B000APO1L4_1_5?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1441154208&sr=1-5
I think it's been inevitable that the Southern strategy (SS) would at some point hit this rupture because of it's inherent contradiction just like the old New Deal Democrat coalition was doomed to its 1968 rupture.
But the rise of Trump makes it a good chance that 2016 will be 1968 for the GOP's SS. Because assuming Trump continues to dominate the polls and wins some actual primaries-which is not a given; it depends if he has any ground game going on in NH and IOWA-then one way or the other I suspect things are going to come to a head.
If the GOP accepts him as the candidate they will lose and lose big. But if they use establishment GOP muscle to not count his votes it will give him justifiable reason to go third party. And this will bring out a lot of the base.
I think it could be as much as 20% but even 5% would be deadly. Jonathan Chait as gamed this out:
"The media’s obsessive coverage of Donald Trump has been stalked by a cloud of self-imposed shame. The Huffington Post made an early decision to relegate Trump coverage to its entertainment section, reflecting a wide sense that Trump’s contribution to the race was diversionary. It is almost certainly true that Trump will not win the Republican nomination, and even more certainly true that he will not be elected president. But the Trump candidacy — and, in particular, its endgame — will have an enormous impact on the outcome of the presidential race. The question is not whether Trump will affect the outcome of the race, but how."
"Trump could change the race by stamping his image upon the Republicans in a way they cannot escape. Trump has made himself the symbol of racism against Latinos in the United States. He is absolute brand poison. Democrats are already airing television ads connecting other Republican candidates to Trump."
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/08/what-is-the-trump-endgame.html
By the way, this is totally fair as the GOP really is and has always been Trumpist on immigration before he even got on the scene.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/08/trump-didnt-invent-trumpism.html
I don't think the GOP can accept Trump as he's not a conservative. He flouts the SS.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/09/trump-thumbs-his-nose-at-gop-grover.html
The SS was always about leading prejudiced whites to vote their prejudices rather than their economic interests.
Trump's shrewd move is to directly speak to their prejudices while at the same time being a lot more responsive to their economic interests."
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/09/trump-thumbs-his-nose-at-gop-grover.html
Think about the difference between the base and establishment like the cliche about men vs. women in relationships: Men trade love for sex, women trade sex for love.
In the GOP the establishment trades on racial and ethnic prejudices for regressive economic policies and the base trades regressive economic policies for the prejudices.
Trump now would saddle the GOP establishment with bigotry and prejudice and not even get it's regressive economic policies. A lose-lose. So I don't know that they can ever accept Trump as their nominee no matter how well he does.
But if he does do well and they don't accept him the base will support him going third party which will kill the GOP. Choose your poison.
"Another, more potent way Trump could determine the outcome of the race is by running a third-party candidacy. An independent Trump is the perfectly designed Republican-killer. He appeals to a constituency (white nativists) that forms a crucial component of the Republican base, but which bears almost no authentic support for the party’s anti-government domestic-policy agenda. He has the celebrity and money to sustain such a run. An independent Trump run would virtually eliminate any chance of Republican victory."
Republicans’ success requires the party to steer a course between these two outcomes — one damaging, the other ruinous. They must keep Trump within the party without allowing him to contaminate the party. Such an outcome is certainly possible. It will not be easy. More unnerving for Republican power brokers is the fact that the success of their project lies mainly in Trump’s hands. And what Trump is even trying to achieve is difficult to ascertain."
What's interesting about Trump is that while he has switched party affiliations from Dems to GOP and back again over the years but what has always been there is economic nativism and trade populism. It's always been that the US is being ripped off by Japan, China, Mexico, whoever.
It's notable though that it's always Asian or Latino countries, it's never the Europeans that he focuses on as ripping us off by running up trade surpluses against us even though we have trade deficits with Europe and Canada as well.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0003.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-trade-gap-with-europe-soars-to-record-amid-greek-crisis-2015-08-05
Here are our numbers vs. Canada.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c1220.html
We did have a surplus with them in May though this was short-lived and they 'crushed us' in June. I use scare-quotes because obviously we're not even pretending to have a serious economic discussion here which would have to justify why trade deficits mean we 'lose' while surpluses mean we 'win.'
Trump's campaign is obviously not about a serious economic discussion but this sort of autarky is very popular electorally, and not just on the Right by any means.
Think about the difference between the base and establishment like the cliche about men vs. women in relationships: Men trade love for sex, women trade sex for love.
In the GOP the establishment trades on racial and ethnic prejudices for regressive economic policies and the base trades regressive economic policies for the prejudices.
Trump now would saddle the GOP establishment with bigotry and prejudice and not even get it's regressive economic policies. A lose-lose. So I don't know that they can ever accept Trump as their nominee no matter how well he does.
But if he does do well and they don't accept him the base will support him going third party which will kill the GOP. Choose your poison.
"Another, more potent way Trump could determine the outcome of the race is by running a third-party candidacy. An independent Trump is the perfectly designed Republican-killer. He appeals to a constituency (white nativists) that forms a crucial component of the Republican base, but which bears almost no authentic support for the party’s anti-government domestic-policy agenda. He has the celebrity and money to sustain such a run. An independent Trump run would virtually eliminate any chance of Republican victory."
Republicans’ success requires the party to steer a course between these two outcomes — one damaging, the other ruinous. They must keep Trump within the party without allowing him to contaminate the party. Such an outcome is certainly possible. It will not be easy. More unnerving for Republican power brokers is the fact that the success of their project lies mainly in Trump’s hands. And what Trump is even trying to achieve is difficult to ascertain."
What's interesting about Trump is that while he has switched party affiliations from Dems to GOP and back again over the years but what has always been there is economic nativism and trade populism. It's always been that the US is being ripped off by Japan, China, Mexico, whoever.
It's notable though that it's always Asian or Latino countries, it's never the Europeans that he focuses on as ripping us off by running up trade surpluses against us even though we have trade deficits with Europe and Canada as well.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0003.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-trade-gap-with-europe-soars-to-record-amid-greek-crisis-2015-08-05
Here are our numbers vs. Canada.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c1220.html
We did have a surplus with them in May though this was short-lived and they 'crushed us' in June. I use scare-quotes because obviously we're not even pretending to have a serious economic discussion here which would have to justify why trade deficits mean we 'lose' while surpluses mean we 'win.'
Trump's campaign is obviously not about a serious economic discussion but this sort of autarky is very popular electorally, and not just on the Right by any means.
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