Many s GOPers in the establishment are now admitting to themselves that Trump apparently is going to be around for a long time.
The John Sides of the world hunker down in their expert wisdom-at least that of the political scientists. Nate Silver insists Trump won't be the nominee.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/09/john-sides-explains-trump.html
I get the point-Trump is unlikely to win the insider endorsements he needs. Though he's been doing pretty well so far without any. He is leading in NH and Iowa without any tv advertising-why he need it as he is getting so much coverage?
And some of the big money donors are not throwing lots of money at anyone just yet. The Koch Bros, Shelley Adelson-they get that Trump makes this race too unpredictable to just anoint someone and try to make him king just yet.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/donald-trump-2016-campaign-gop-jeb-bush-213391#ixzz3lB06M0ER
I wouldn't bet on Trump on winning the GOP nomination even now as I think there's a good chance the GOP will do anything rather than let him take it. But if they do play nasty to prevent him winning-and if he's able to translate his poll numbers into wins in many of the primary states he's way ahead in, they will have to play nasty to keep him away from the nomination.
And then Trump would have good reason to break his pledge-as this would clearly be unfair treatment.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/09/trumps-loyalty-oath-as-win-win.html
Anyway, many of the GOPers worry that this is going to be a brokered convention which I have also suggested.
"The Trump effect has stretched well beyond the candidates themselves. Trump has blown a hole in the best-laid plans of Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, who went to great lengths to create a tidier and shorter 2016 nomination process – now there are real conversations about the possibility of a brokered convention next summer. The committee is even girding for the possibility of a drawn-out fight that could go all the way to the convention, a senior party official said. While Priebus publicly states that he’s confident the process will “sort itself out,” the committee, the official said, is nervous."
The John Sides of the world hunker down in their expert wisdom-at least that of the political scientists. Nate Silver insists Trump won't be the nominee.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/09/john-sides-explains-trump.html
I get the point-Trump is unlikely to win the insider endorsements he needs. Though he's been doing pretty well so far without any. He is leading in NH and Iowa without any tv advertising-why he need it as he is getting so much coverage?
And some of the big money donors are not throwing lots of money at anyone just yet. The Koch Bros, Shelley Adelson-they get that Trump makes this race too unpredictable to just anoint someone and try to make him king just yet.
Equally astounding is that Trump has managed to confound the class of uncommitted mega-donors who suddenly find themselves skittish about jumping into a contest with so much uncertainty.
“You always have one set of donors who wait it out,” said Charlie Black, a long-time GOP lobbyist who has advised a number of presidential campaigns. “They are even less able to pick at this point in this cycle because Trump’s cast a big cloud over the field.”
"While neither Charles nor David Koch has been considered likely to get behind a single primary candidate, those familiar with the billionaire industrialists’ plans say they’re more determined than before to keep their powder dry. The Kochs recognize the unpredictability Trump creates, and neither sees much upside in putting their considerable resources behind a primary contender."
"Then there is Sheldon Adelson, the Las Vegas casino mogul who four years ago pumped millions into Newt Gingrich’s bid. Adelson, who is said to favor Marco Rubio, had been expected to pick his candidate sometime after the second debate. Now, however, those close to Adelson expect him to wait until the end of the year to make his selection."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/donald-trump-2016-campaign-gop-jeb-bush-213391#ixzz3lB06M0ER
I wouldn't bet on Trump on winning the GOP nomination even now as I think there's a good chance the GOP will do anything rather than let him take it. But if they do play nasty to prevent him winning-and if he's able to translate his poll numbers into wins in many of the primary states he's way ahead in, they will have to play nasty to keep him away from the nomination.
And then Trump would have good reason to break his pledge-as this would clearly be unfair treatment.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/09/trumps-loyalty-oath-as-win-win.html
Anyway, many of the GOPers worry that this is going to be a brokered convention which I have also suggested.
"The Trump effect has stretched well beyond the candidates themselves. Trump has blown a hole in the best-laid plans of Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, who went to great lengths to create a tidier and shorter 2016 nomination process – now there are real conversations about the possibility of a brokered convention next summer. The committee is even girding for the possibility of a drawn-out fight that could go all the way to the convention, a senior party official said. While Priebus publicly states that he’s confident the process will “sort itself out,” the committee, the official said, is nervous."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/donald-trump-2016-campaign-gop-jeb-bush-213391#ixzz3lB4Vdbed
This is something I've been talking about for the last several weeks. One scenario I see is Trump winning a lot of states-he's ahead everywhere in the polls and if he does just half as well in the actual elections he will do very well-and many state GOPs scrambling to deny him their state by hook or by crook.
It's easy to forget that even now we don't have direct democracy-there's a sense in which the results of the state's voters are 'kind of a suggestion'-where delegates can in theory vote for someone else.
Of course, this could be used to deny Trump the nomination but this will likely lead to a brokered convention and possibly a third party.
In this spirit, I came across this clip of former President Harry Truman in 1960 claiming that the primary process hadn't been fair that year-the Kennedy had somehow cheated by turning it into a 'pre-arranged affair-and he was leaving with his delegate vote.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y49FJYbjA4I
Unfortunately, Truman's real reason for not supporting Kennedy is rather Trumpist actually-he was put off by his being Catholic. This becomes pretty obvious by reading his congratulatory letter after Kennedy won.
http://www.shapell.org/manuscript/jfk-1960-election-truman
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