I've been curious as Trump seems to fly in the face of his analysis of the 2012 election.
http://www.amazon.com/Gamble-Choice-Chance-Presidential-Election/dp/0691163634/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1441285668&sr=8-1&keywords=john+sides+the+gamble
http://www.amazon.com/Campaigns-Elections-Reality-Strategy-Election/dp/0393923657/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1441285694&sr=1-1&keywords=john+sides+campaigns+and+elections
http://www.amazon.com/Political-Polarization-American-Politics-Sides/dp/1501306278/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1441285723&sr=1-1&keywords=john+sides
He has to somehow explain why Trump is just like Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich.
Here he has an imaginary discussion with 'Cranky Reader.'
"Cranky Reader: Sides, you are an idiot."
"Me: Cranky Reader! Welcome back. It’s been a long time since you’ve been in touch."
"CR: Unfortunately, it hasn’t been a long time since you’ve been dead wrong about a presidential election."
"Me: What did I do now?"
"CR: Remember how a few weeks ago you said to “blame the media” for Trump’s surge? And how there is this cycle of “discovery, scrutiny, and decline” for primary candidates? You know, in your stupid book? Well, Trump’s been scrutinized a million times since then. And his poll numbers are just as strong! Where’s the decline?"
"Me: I’ve got some thoughts on this. Let’s start with this idea: People don’t change their minds without new information."
"CR: Well, yes. In fact, that is painfully obvious."
"Me: What I mean by discovery, scrutiny and decline is that, during the presidential primary, people’s opinions respond to changes in the information they’re getting. The initial surge of news coverage drives up poll numbers. Some combination of scrutiny and the discovery of the “next” candidate brings about the decline."
"CR: Fine. But what about Trump?"
"Me: Let’s take a look at Trump’s share of news coverage and his national poll numbers as of a couple days ago, again using data from the firm Crimson Hexagon. We’ll leave aside the fact that these polls probably overstateTrump’s support."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/28/why-does-trump-remain-atop-the-polls-you-can-still-blame-the-media/
Ok but here's the problem. We did the scrutiny stage and there was no decline. Sides blames the media but that's just it. What reason does the media have to stop paying attention to Trump?
Sides' answer is the discovery of the next candidate. But what if there is no 'next candidate?'
He admits that the tone of Trumps' coverage has been the same all the way through. I'd say that's the beauty of Trump-there is no one in this GOP field that could hold our attention for an hour let along 3 months as Trump has done.
Yes, Sides can say that everyone always says 'It's different this time' but what if This time it really is different? In some ways at least it is different from 2012. As Sides documented while the leader changed several times Mitt Romney was always a strong second.
The same is not true for Jeb Bush who is the presumed Romney of this race.
Also maybe Trump has the ability to never decline as he never loses the media's attention-because no one could ever surpass him in terms of being interesting. There have been a few polls recently that suggest Ben Carson could be gaining on him at least in Iowa.
But have you listened to Ben Carson? He's more or less the anti-Trump in personality.
Meanwhile regarding Trump's campaign, there is an interesting Talking Points Memo piece that makes some very good points.
"Since Donald Trump’s rambling campaign announcement in June, detractors have been quick to dismiss the candidacy of the celebrity tycoon. But the doldrums of August have officially ended, and after a long, hot summer, Trump’s campaign still seems to be thriving. (If anything, he’s at least paying his staffers.)"
"Trump’s campaign was initially compared to early 2012 frontrunners Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich. But according to the Washington Post, Trump’s poll numbers so far have closely mirrored that of eventual 2012 nominee Mitt Romney."
"In the summer of 2011, Perry and Gingrich maintained a 10-point or higher lead for about two weeks, as Trump did this year. But as the Post zoomed out on the Republican contest, it showed Perry's and Gingrich's numbers fell as Romney's rose. Trump has similarly started to leave his competitors behind. The Post noted that not every campaign’s support looks the same, but the numbers remain compelling."
"After the summer of Trump, which included giving children helicopter rides and signature Make America Great Again™ hats, it's hard to greet any poll that shows the real estate mogul at the top of the Republican field with surprise.
"He's been steadily gaining all summer and as of Tuesday led his nearest opponent by an average of 14.5 percent, according to Real Clear Politics. (His nearest rival is former neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson.) Trump spent the summer attacking Fox News host Megyn Kelly, as well as the channel itself. He questioned Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) status as a prisoner of war, and described Mexican immigrants as rapists and drug runners. Despite all that, during the "summer of silliness" (as rival Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal put it), his support has only solidified"
"To cash in on that huge national lead, Trump needs to win 1,144 delegates to secure the nomination. Delegates are rewarded proportionally as caucus and primary votes come in, starting with Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada in February 2016."
"For now, Trump has maintained leads in these states. Real Clear Politics on Tuesday showed Trump with a 5 percent average lead in Iowa, 15.6 percent lead in New Hampshire and 19.7 percent average lead in South Carolina. An average for polling in Nevada was not available due to lack of data, but a Gravis poll in mid-July showed Trump leading the state by 13 percent."
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/fivepoints/donald-trump-polling-trends
Both the breadth and depth of his support stands out. But this is really an important theory by Caitlin Cruz-the writer. What if Trump is the Mitt Romney of the 2016 campaign?
http://www.amazon.com/Gamble-Choice-Chance-Presidential-Election/dp/0691163634/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1441285668&sr=8-1&keywords=john+sides+the+gamble
http://www.amazon.com/Campaigns-Elections-Reality-Strategy-Election/dp/0393923657/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1441285694&sr=1-1&keywords=john+sides+campaigns+and+elections
http://www.amazon.com/Political-Polarization-American-Politics-Sides/dp/1501306278/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1441285723&sr=1-1&keywords=john+sides
He has to somehow explain why Trump is just like Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich.
Here he has an imaginary discussion with 'Cranky Reader.'
"Cranky Reader: Sides, you are an idiot."
"Me: Cranky Reader! Welcome back. It’s been a long time since you’ve been in touch."
"CR: Unfortunately, it hasn’t been a long time since you’ve been dead wrong about a presidential election."
"Me: What did I do now?"
"CR: Remember how a few weeks ago you said to “blame the media” for Trump’s surge? And how there is this cycle of “discovery, scrutiny, and decline” for primary candidates? You know, in your stupid book? Well, Trump’s been scrutinized a million times since then. And his poll numbers are just as strong! Where’s the decline?"
"Me: I’ve got some thoughts on this. Let’s start with this idea: People don’t change their minds without new information."
"CR: Well, yes. In fact, that is painfully obvious."
"Me: What I mean by discovery, scrutiny and decline is that, during the presidential primary, people’s opinions respond to changes in the information they’re getting. The initial surge of news coverage drives up poll numbers. Some combination of scrutiny and the discovery of the “next” candidate brings about the decline."
"CR: Fine. But what about Trump?"
"Me: Let’s take a look at Trump’s share of news coverage and his national poll numbers as of a couple days ago, again using data from the firm Crimson Hexagon. We’ll leave aside the fact that these polls probably overstateTrump’s support."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/28/why-does-trump-remain-atop-the-polls-you-can-still-blame-the-media/
Ok but here's the problem. We did the scrutiny stage and there was no decline. Sides blames the media but that's just it. What reason does the media have to stop paying attention to Trump?
Sides' answer is the discovery of the next candidate. But what if there is no 'next candidate?'
He admits that the tone of Trumps' coverage has been the same all the way through. I'd say that's the beauty of Trump-there is no one in this GOP field that could hold our attention for an hour let along 3 months as Trump has done.
Yes, Sides can say that everyone always says 'It's different this time' but what if This time it really is different? In some ways at least it is different from 2012. As Sides documented while the leader changed several times Mitt Romney was always a strong second.
The same is not true for Jeb Bush who is the presumed Romney of this race.
Also maybe Trump has the ability to never decline as he never loses the media's attention-because no one could ever surpass him in terms of being interesting. There have been a few polls recently that suggest Ben Carson could be gaining on him at least in Iowa.
But have you listened to Ben Carson? He's more or less the anti-Trump in personality.
Meanwhile regarding Trump's campaign, there is an interesting Talking Points Memo piece that makes some very good points.
"Since Donald Trump’s rambling campaign announcement in June, detractors have been quick to dismiss the candidacy of the celebrity tycoon. But the doldrums of August have officially ended, and after a long, hot summer, Trump’s campaign still seems to be thriving. (If anything, he’s at least paying his staffers.)"
"Trump’s campaign was initially compared to early 2012 frontrunners Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich. But according to the Washington Post, Trump’s poll numbers so far have closely mirrored that of eventual 2012 nominee Mitt Romney."
"In the summer of 2011, Perry and Gingrich maintained a 10-point or higher lead for about two weeks, as Trump did this year. But as the Post zoomed out on the Republican contest, it showed Perry's and Gingrich's numbers fell as Romney's rose. Trump has similarly started to leave his competitors behind. The Post noted that not every campaign’s support looks the same, but the numbers remain compelling."
"After the summer of Trump, which included giving children helicopter rides and signature Make America Great Again™ hats, it's hard to greet any poll that shows the real estate mogul at the top of the Republican field with surprise.
"He's been steadily gaining all summer and as of Tuesday led his nearest opponent by an average of 14.5 percent, according to Real Clear Politics. (His nearest rival is former neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson.) Trump spent the summer attacking Fox News host Megyn Kelly, as well as the channel itself. He questioned Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) status as a prisoner of war, and described Mexican immigrants as rapists and drug runners. Despite all that, during the "summer of silliness" (as rival Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal put it), his support has only solidified"
"For now, Trump has maintained leads in these states. Real Clear Politics on Tuesday showed Trump with a 5 percent average lead in Iowa, 15.6 percent lead in New Hampshire and 19.7 percent average lead in South Carolina. An average for polling in Nevada was not available due to lack of data, but a Gravis poll in mid-July showed Trump leading the state by 13 percent."
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/fivepoints/donald-trump-polling-trends
Both the breadth and depth of his support stands out. But this is really an important theory by Caitlin Cruz-the writer. What if Trump is the Mitt Romney of the 2016 campaign?
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