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Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Bad News for Neo-Fisherians: Rate Hikes May Be on Hold

      Neo-Fisherians have simple demands: they just want higher interest rates. They wanted it for years after 2008 because they worried about inflation galloping away. Now they want it because this is how you put an end to lowflation. 

      http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/07/neo-fisherism-rbcs-brilliant-trojan.html

      NF thinking seems to have gotten hold of the Fed as they've been planning a rate hike all year for no particular reason. Just that it's not normal to have ZIRP for so long.

    http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/08/federal-reserve-plan-to-raise-interest.html

    Central banks worry a lot about saving face. The Fed doesn't want to be one and done like the Bank of Japan was in 2008. Of course, the BOJ rate hike was a mistake. CBs often raise rates just because it seems the normal thing to do.

    It's almost like they think that if they raise rates then their hope that the economy is now healthy enough to deal with it will be self-fulfilling.

    However, the zeal for this year's rate hike has hit a snag:

   "The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in September, but wih great difficulty with much of the world lowering rates and devaluing currency, Nuveen Asset Management's Bob Doll said Wednesday."

   "China's surprise decision to devalue its currency on Tuesday presented the latest challenge to the Fed's anticipated liftoff at a time when Europe and Japan are easing monetary policy. The falling Chinese yuan has dragged down other growth-linked currencies, including Australia and New Zealand."

  "Everybody knew September was a more than 50 percent chance the Fed was going to go," Doll told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "You've got to wonder, is this going to make it less than 50 percent? Are they really going to listen to things outside the U.S.?"

  http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/12/fed-faces-great-difficulty-hiking-rates-bob-doll.html

  If they don't then it would make the dollar the currency all other currencies can devalue against. At this point only in the US does the CB seem to desire tighter money.

  Interestingly, the dollar is lower today-some are anticipating this means the Fed can't raise rates now.

  http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/12/australian-dollar-tumbles-after-china-weakens-yuan-guidance.html

  Meanwhile, NY Fed's Dudley says China moves 'probably appropriate.'

  http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/12/feds-dudley-monetary-policy-can-help-labor-markets-but-cant-solve-skills-mismatch.html

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