This post of Ezra Klein has got that great old song by Clarence 'Frogman' Henry stuck in my brain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oF_n4NoX5go
GOPers keep saying that Trump's policies don't matter it's just his attitude, chutzpah, guts, etc. But then as Klein and Yglesias show, elites don't necessarily understand voters.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/08/yes-donald-trump-is-moderate-candidate.html
One fallacy is mixing up moderate with centrist.
"This is, for Republicans, the more comforting interpretation of Trump's emergence — he's a candidate powered by a potent mix of celebrity, outrage, and chutzpah, but he's not really a Republican, and as the primary grinds on, Republican voters will figure that out."
"But there's another possible interpretation — this one more worrying for Republicans. In this interpretation, part of what makes Trump dangerous is that he's willing to cater to the opinions of the Republican base in ways that the Republican establishment wouldn't dare. And in doing so, he can exploit longstanding cleavages between the Republican Party and the voters it represents."
http://www.vox.com/2015/8/17/9164241/donald-trump-issues
"So far, Trump is known for one policy position: He will deport unauthorized immigrants. And, more broadly than that, he's known for one policy idea: that immigration, and particularly illegal immigration, is hurting American workers."
"And sure enough, a recent CBS News poll found that Trump leads the field when you ask Republican voters whom they trust most on immigration. That's not true on all policy issues, by the way — Trump badly lags Jeb Bush when you ask about dealing with America's foreign adversaries.
"But when it comes to immigration — the one policy question on which everyone knows Trump's stance — Republican voters prefer him to the other candidates."
"And it goes beyond just immigration. The first Republican debate was designed to show Republicans that they disagreed with Trump on all sorts of issues — he was called out on his disloyalty to the Republican Party, on his past support for single-payer, his treatment of women, his donations to Democratic candidates, and his past support for abortion. And at one point in the debate Trump, without being asked, volunteered that he believed the Iraq War was a mistake. The result?"
"One problem? Republican voters don't understand the urgency of cutting entitlement spending. In fact, they oppose cutting entitlement spending. More Republicans want to increase spending on Social Security and Medicare than decrease it. They think keeping entitlement benefits at current levels is more important than reducing the deficit."
"Trump is the only Republican running who actually agrees with the GOP base on this one. "They're gonna cut Social Security. They're gonna cut Medicare. They're gonna cut Medicaid," he said on Fox & Friends. "I'm the one saying that's saying I'm not gonna do that!"
"And that's what makes a candidate like Trump potentially dangerous. On immigration, Trump holds a hard-line position that the Republican Party establishment has tried to mute, and so far Republican voters are loving it. On Social Security and Medicare, Trump — who opposes cuts — is closer to Republican voters than the party establishment is. On free trade deals, Trump shares a skepticism held by about half of Republican voters, but that's usually suppressed by the party's powerful business wing."
This is the point Klein made in his previous post-I wrote about this in my link above about Trump being a moderate-to be moderate can come from taking extreme liberal and conservative ideas together.
The GOP base is much more conservative than the establishment on immigration but much more liberal than the establishment on entitlements.
"Most candidates who tried to stack this many heterodoxies would be quickly squelched by the party establishment. But Trump isn't beholden to the GOP for money, staff, power, or press attention. That frees him to take positions that Republican voters like but Republican Party elites loathe."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oF_n4NoX5go
GOPers keep saying that Trump's policies don't matter it's just his attitude, chutzpah, guts, etc. But then as Klein and Yglesias show, elites don't necessarily understand voters.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/08/yes-donald-trump-is-moderate-candidate.html
One fallacy is mixing up moderate with centrist.
"This is, for Republicans, the more comforting interpretation of Trump's emergence — he's a candidate powered by a potent mix of celebrity, outrage, and chutzpah, but he's not really a Republican, and as the primary grinds on, Republican voters will figure that out."
"But there's another possible interpretation — this one more worrying for Republicans. In this interpretation, part of what makes Trump dangerous is that he's willing to cater to the opinions of the Republican base in ways that the Republican establishment wouldn't dare. And in doing so, he can exploit longstanding cleavages between the Republican Party and the voters it represents."
http://www.vox.com/2015/8/17/9164241/donald-trump-issues
"So far, Trump is known for one policy position: He will deport unauthorized immigrants. And, more broadly than that, he's known for one policy idea: that immigration, and particularly illegal immigration, is hurting American workers."
"And sure enough, a recent CBS News poll found that Trump leads the field when you ask Republican voters whom they trust most on immigration. That's not true on all policy issues, by the way — Trump badly lags Jeb Bush when you ask about dealing with America's foreign adversaries.
"But when it comes to immigration — the one policy question on which everyone knows Trump's stance — Republican voters prefer him to the other candidates."
"And it goes beyond just immigration. The first Republican debate was designed to show Republicans that they disagreed with Trump on all sorts of issues — he was called out on his disloyalty to the Republican Party, on his past support for single-payer, his treatment of women, his donations to Democratic candidates, and his past support for abortion. And at one point in the debate Trump, without being asked, volunteered that he believed the Iraq War was a mistake. The result?"
Trump leads the field, with Ben Carson a distant second according to a new Fox News poll-with Jeb at just 9 percent.
https://twitter.com/MarkHalperin/status/632900303667507200/photo/1
By the way you see how selective the media is in demanding specifics from Trump but not from Jeb, Rubio, and Scott Walker who collectively have only 19% in this latest poll to Trump's 25%.
After all it remains the case that the GOP nominee will likely will be one of these three-the media sees them as the serious candidates.
Another interesting takeaway that Klein chronicles: the GOP base doesn't want cuts to Social Security and Medicare-though they do like talk of cutting food stamps and Trump's vow to deny welfare benefits to illegal immigrants.
So Trump is able to hit the GOP on entitlement cuts.
"Trump is the only Republican running who actually agrees with the GOP base on this one. "They're gonna cut Social Security. They're gonna cut Medicare. They're gonna cut Medicaid," he said on Fox & Friends. "I'm the one saying that's saying I'm not gonna do that!"
"And that's what makes a candidate like Trump potentially dangerous. On immigration, Trump holds a hard-line position that the Republican Party establishment has tried to mute, and so far Republican voters are loving it. On Social Security and Medicare, Trump — who opposes cuts — is closer to Republican voters than the party establishment is. On free trade deals, Trump shares a skepticism held by about half of Republican voters, but that's usually suppressed by the party's powerful business wing."
This is the point Klein made in his previous post-I wrote about this in my link above about Trump being a moderate-to be moderate can come from taking extreme liberal and conservative ideas together.
The GOP base is much more conservative than the establishment on immigration but much more liberal than the establishment on entitlements.
"Most candidates who tried to stack this many heterodoxies would be quickly squelched by the party establishment. But Trump isn't beholden to the GOP for money, staff, power, or press attention. That frees him to take positions that Republican voters like but Republican Party elites loathe."
The GOP for years has refused to see reason. Even after the 2012 election they had vowed to learn on immigration. But then Heritage assured them they didn't need to get Latino votes just maximize white voters even more than every before while the demographic is shrinking.
As Jon Huntsman said yesterday this could lead to a fracturing of the party. I think when they finally get rid of Trump which could be eight or nine months away, it will be very hard to just go back to business as usual again.
No comments:
Post a Comment