So argues a Financial Times piece this morning by Edward Luce.
"It is February 2016 and the sky is falling on our heads. Donald Trump has just won the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. Those who predicted he would have long since imploded are scrambling to fallback positions. He will flame out on Super Tuesday, they insist. He will be ejected by primary voters in Jeb Bush’s Florida in March, they add.
If worst comes to worst, he will meet his Waterloo at the Republican convention in July — the first such brokered event in decades. Fear not, wise heads will reassure us, that man could never be president of the United States.
"It is February 2016 and the sky is falling on our heads. Donald Trump has just won the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. Those who predicted he would have long since imploded are scrambling to fallback positions. He will flame out on Super Tuesday, they insist. He will be ejected by primary voters in Jeb Bush’s Florida in March, they add.
If worst comes to worst, he will meet his Waterloo at the Republican convention in July — the first such brokered event in decades. Fear not, wise heads will reassure us, that man could never be president of the United States.
"Like a stopped clock, conventional wisdom must eventually be right on Mr Trump. It goes without saying that sane people should hope so. Last week two of the billionaire’s more inflamed supporters beat up a homeless Hispanic man. All Mr Trump could initially say was that his followers were “passionate”. Make no mistake, the property tycoon who would be president is an unpleasant piece of work."
. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9bf074ea-4826-11e5-af2f-4d6e0e5eda22.html#ixzz3jjvX8wTU
"Before Donald Trump, Republican presidential candidates could deflect tough questions on immigration with vague promises to secure the border and oppose all “amnesty” for illegal immigrants."
"Donald Trump on Sunday turned his fire on hedge fund managers, calling them “paper-pushers” who do not pay their fair share of tax, in the latest attack of his bombastic presidential campaign."
"Mr Trump, who leads the race for the Republican presidential nomination, indicated he would close a loophole that lets hedge fund and private equity managers pay taxes at a lower capital gains rate instead of as income tax."
"The billionaire’s comments add a new dimension to his unorthodox campaign because support for ending the so-called “carried interest loophole” stretches across party lines, encompassing conservatives as well as Democrats."
"President Barack Obama has called for the tax break to be eliminated as has Hillary Clinton, frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination, who has said it is wrong that hedge fund managers “pay lower taxes than nurses”.
"Vowing to reform the tax law, Mr Trump said on Sunday that he would target hedge fund managers."
Lawrence O'Donnell for some reason has made it his business to call Trump's peak everyday. Ok, a President Trump may well be an unpleasant piece of work. Though my problem is I think Jeb-the presumed GOP favorite-is just as unpleasant a piece of work if not worse. In fact he would be worse.
For one thing he'd have help from the GOP Congress where Trump would be on his own a lot of the time-he's not a real Republican and they'd realize it.
The problem of hatred for immigrants, particularly Latino immigrants was not invented by Trump and if he hadn't run it would not have magically disappeared. As counterintutiive as it may seem I think Trump is healthy to the extent that at least we're having a conversation now.
Obvouisly what happened to the homeless man is appalling and wrong. But my point is that the demons are there with or without Trump. Those who just decrying him without context to the larger GOP atittude to immigrants are the real danger.
- See more at: http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-rachel-maddow-theory-of-jeb-bushs.html?showComment=1440173575076#c7940139217756153982
I don't want to go back to that. Back to Luce:
."Conservatives should be especially worried. His plans to round up and deport the estimated 11.5m undocumented immigrants would require the federal power of a police state. His plan to scrap the 14th amendment’s birthright to US citizenship would corrode America’s soul."
Yes that would be true-if only. If only conservatives really were so opposed to an enlarged police state. How could anyone really believe that today after Jeb's brother gave us the Patriot Act?
There is a worry for conservatives though-Trump is putting a real political hurting on the conservative Republican cause. Does he care? No for the simple reason that as Jeb and Rand Paul flail about trying to warn he's not a conservative Republican.
No, Trump is a Right wing populist in the tradition of Pat Buchanan, Ross Perot, and George Wallace-though Perot was rather unusual in being a populist of the Center.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/08/yes-donald-trump-is-moderate-candidate.html
"Here's how you know that Trump is serious: in the past he spoke of a wealth tax, now he's attacking hedge funds."
"Mr Trump, who leads the race for the Republican presidential nomination, indicated he would close a loophole that lets hedge fund and private equity managers pay taxes at a lower capital gains rate instead of as income tax."
"The billionaire’s comments add a new dimension to his unorthodox campaign because support for ending the so-called “carried interest loophole” stretches across party lines, encompassing conservatives as well as Democrats."
"President Barack Obama has called for the tax break to be eliminated as has Hillary Clinton, frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination, who has said it is wrong that hedge fund managers “pay lower taxes than nurses”.
"Vowing to reform the tax law, Mr Trump said on Sunday that he would target hedge fund managers."
“They are energetic. They are very smart. But a lot of them — they are paper-pushers. They make a fortune. They pay no tax. It’s ridiculous, OK?” he told CBS television."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cc67209e-49d2-11e5-9b5d-89a026fda5c9.html#ixzz3jk1FkYmX
This is something that I've argued a number of times: his appeal is not solely to the Right. He has sweetners for the Center and Left.
What's important to get is that he's not any kind of conservative-Mr Trump is a populist. Now populists are found on the Right and Left and an effective populist like Trump could get votes from both.
I for the record am not a populist-which puts me in something of a miniroty-I'm a liberal. But there are more liberals than conservatives-though less than the populists.
http://www.vox.com/2015/8/18/9172653/trump-populism-immigration
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cc67209e-49d2-11e5-9b5d-89a026fda5c9.html#ixzz3jk1FkYmX
This is something that I've argued a number of times: his appeal is not solely to the Right. He has sweetners for the Center and Left.
What's important to get is that he's not any kind of conservative-Mr Trump is a populist. Now populists are found on the Right and Left and an effective populist like Trump could get votes from both.
I for the record am not a populist-which puts me in something of a miniroty-I'm a liberal. But there are more liberals than conservatives-though less than the populists.
http://www.vox.com/2015/8/18/9172653/trump-populism-immigration
Populism tends to make me nervous as it connotates in my mind a bunch of low information people lashing out blindly.
However, Trump even has a sop in his agenda for me as I like the idea of raising tax rates on capital gains very much. He is very shrewd.
However, Trump even has a sop in his agenda for me as I like the idea of raising tax rates on capital gains very much. He is very shrewd.
Do I think he will win? No. Nor do I want him to, of course,
But I would love for him to win the GOP primary-at which point my belief is Hillary would beat him up.
But to abstract from what I want to see to what I expect to see-never easy to dislodge-I see him going long in the GOP race though eventually the GOP will find a way to blackball him, At which point me may go third party that would be even a better thing in a way than him running from the GOP.
Politico actually imagines the first 100 days of a Trump administration.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/president-trump-wouldnt-destroy-america-121604.html?hp=t2_r#.Vdsef_lViko
No, I do not want this. But I'd take it over a Jeb Bush administration.
But to abstract from what I want to see to what I expect to see-never easy to dislodge-I see him going long in the GOP race though eventually the GOP will find a way to blackball him, At which point me may go third party that would be even a better thing in a way than him running from the GOP.
Politico actually imagines the first 100 days of a Trump administration.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/president-trump-wouldnt-destroy-america-121604.html?hp=t2_r#.Vdsef_lViko
No, I do not want this. But I'd take it over a Jeb Bush administration.
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