It seems to me that this may be where we end up.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/08/we-are-living-in-golden-age-of.html
Assuming that Trump continues to dominate the polls-and why wouldn't he as he contiues to dominate the news cycle; and when you see what stiffs guys like Jeb and Scott Walker are why wouldnt' he continue to do this?-then the question is whether or not this poll domination translates in any meaningful way into the actual primary votes.
If it does then the next stop is a party civil war that leads to Trump forming a third party and taking sizable chunk of the GOP base with him. I mean, if he's able to win the primaries then either:
1. The GOP accepts him as its nominee
2. Or it blackballs Trump. This is where the party insiders in each state simply refuse to line up behind Trump. Even though he gets most of the votes, the GOP state delegates pledge for someone else-probably Jeb Bush.
I don't see the doing 1 very quickly for a couple of reasons.
1. He will get creamed in the general by Hillary
2. He's really not a Republican. If you take away immiration which is to be sure his dominant issue, on no other issue is he a conservative. He does claim to be prolife but this story of his conversion certainly sounds convenient and he also has defended Planned Parenthood.
Now he's coming out clealry for a liberal Democrat position:in raising the capital gains tax for the rich.
However, if they go 2 then it's real trouble with the base. So the question for the GOP is do they prefer:
1. Trump as their candidate
2. Him as a third party candidate
Either one is sucide for the GOP so it's not clear what the good answer is. I think 2 risks giving this Trump thing legs and splitting the party even beyond 2016. But the idea is already being talked about in GOP circles.
"GOP leaders already have been floating trial balloons of keeping Trump’s name from appearing on primary ballots. This is, by far, the most dangerous option. One that would infuriate his sizable bloc of supporters and all but guarantee a third-party bid. It also is the gutsiest, which pretty much ensures that GOP leaders won’t try it."
"This is the last available option. Stop scheming ways to upend Trump’s campaign and just accept the following: Donald Trump is the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination. He is not going to be easily thrown off his game. And every day that passes makes it less likely he’ll self-destruct. Toss out the campaign playbook you’ve constructed, and adjust everything accordingly."
"Acceptance is hard—not only because it requires a change in thinking. But because acknowledging that Washington politicos can’t stop Trump or control voters’ thinking exposes their declining influence. And that’s what’s really ticked everyone off about Donald Trump."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/donald-trump-2016-setting-gop-agenda-213088#ixzz3kOz0l0hQ
"Should he step out of the race tomorrow, Donald Trump has changed the shape of the 2016 race forever. The only question for the rest of the candidates in the field is what to do about it. All of the available options offer serious risks—and most have already failed."
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/08/we-are-living-in-golden-age-of.html
Assuming that Trump continues to dominate the polls-and why wouldn't he as he contiues to dominate the news cycle; and when you see what stiffs guys like Jeb and Scott Walker are why wouldnt' he continue to do this?-then the question is whether or not this poll domination translates in any meaningful way into the actual primary votes.
If it does then the next stop is a party civil war that leads to Trump forming a third party and taking sizable chunk of the GOP base with him. I mean, if he's able to win the primaries then either:
1. The GOP accepts him as its nominee
2. Or it blackballs Trump. This is where the party insiders in each state simply refuse to line up behind Trump. Even though he gets most of the votes, the GOP state delegates pledge for someone else-probably Jeb Bush.
I don't see the doing 1 very quickly for a couple of reasons.
1. He will get creamed in the general by Hillary
2. He's really not a Republican. If you take away immiration which is to be sure his dominant issue, on no other issue is he a conservative. He does claim to be prolife but this story of his conversion certainly sounds convenient and he also has defended Planned Parenthood.
Now he's coming out clealry for a liberal Democrat position:in raising the capital gains tax for the rich.
However, if they go 2 then it's real trouble with the base. So the question for the GOP is do they prefer:
1. Trump as their candidate
2. Him as a third party candidate
Either one is sucide for the GOP so it's not clear what the good answer is. I think 2 risks giving this Trump thing legs and splitting the party even beyond 2016. But the idea is already being talked about in GOP circles.
"GOP leaders already have been floating trial balloons of keeping Trump’s name from appearing on primary ballots. This is, by far, the most dangerous option. One that would infuriate his sizable bloc of supporters and all but guarantee a third-party bid. It also is the gutsiest, which pretty much ensures that GOP leaders won’t try it."
Doing this will give him legitimate grievance to go third party and many of the base will follow him there-maybe even Ann Coulter, Howie Carr and Rush Limbaugh at least wont criticize Trump for doing it.
There is the option of accepting it:
"This is the last available option. Stop scheming ways to upend Trump’s campaign and just accept the following: Donald Trump is the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination. He is not going to be easily thrown off his game. And every day that passes makes it less likely he’ll self-destruct. Toss out the campaign playbook you’ve constructed, and adjust everything accordingly."
"Acceptance is hard—not only because it requires a change in thinking. But because acknowledging that Washington politicos can’t stop Trump or control voters’ thinking exposes their declining influence. And that’s what’s really ticked everyone off about Donald Trump."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/donald-trump-2016-setting-gop-agenda-213088#ixzz3kOz0l0hQ
But again, he's not a Republican on most other issues and too much of one on immigration. Anyway, as long has he continues to lead all the polls this going to be fun. As Politico observes,, even if he dropped out this has mutated the 2016 race once and for all.
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