This is Why I'm a Trump Democrat Reason # 759

You get a lot of pundits giving out mea culpas now. Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, Ben White, Dana Milbank the list goes on and on.

I remember Jonathan Bernstein telling me in November how unrealistic Trump's chances were based on history. He refused to listen to my point: this is not a normal year or a normal party.

How did they get Trump so wrong? I think Nate Silver does a good job in figuring out how he missed this so badly:

"Updated post-Trump priors: 1. Voters are more tribal than I thought. 2. GOP is weaker than I thought. 3. Media is worse than I thought."

"Not in her wildest dreams did Hillary think GOP would pick a candidate who is both so unpopular and so devastating to conservative movement."

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/726781324254654465?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Here is the whole piece.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-republican-voters-decided-on-trump/

Neera Tanden on twitter said it was in her own wildest dreams.

https://twitter.com/neeratanden/status/726807972127584257

It has been in my dreams since last July.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/07/democrats-for-donald-trump.html

Just remember that while the pundits are telling you no one could have predicted Trump's success and could and did three weeks into his campaign. The only other person I'm aware of who figured it out that long ago is the Dilbert writer, Scott Adams.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/139541975641/the-trump-master-persuader-index-and-reading-list

However, the reason he anticipated Trump's success is more about his theory that Trump is a 'master persauder'-basically, Scott Adams has studied hypnotism and thinks Trump instinctively knows how to hypnotize voters.

He thinks that Trump will beat Clinton as well and will be as successful defining her as he was Low Energy Jeb. Little Marco, and Lying Ted.

However, my difference with Adams is I agree Trump has some skills. But I don't buy that he can't be beat. Trump's success is a lot more due to the reasons Nate Silver now gives. Most pundits overrated the Republican party.

That's why Silver is also right-the pundits are much worse than he realized-and he's one of them.

The Beltway media was addicted to this 'both sides do it meme'' and really thought the GOP was a reasonable, healthy party. Trump showed otherwise. As I understood this all along, I knew Trump had a real chance. One of the few pundits I can think of who got this pretty early was Norm Ornstein. Of course. He was also the one who broke a taboo in his book where he recognized that the GOP is the problem, not both sides.

http://www.amazon.com/Even-Worse-Than-Looks-Constitutional/dp/0465096204/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1462458682&sr=8-1&keywords=norm+ornstein

But Trump can be beaten. Scott Adams might want to watch what Obama did to him in 2012 and tell me again the Master Persauder can't be mastered.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8TwRmX6zs4

There is an old saying-be careful what you wish for. I wished for Clinton-Trump for 10 months. I'm not sorry. Here is just one more example of why not.

John McCain. Who ever thought he could be vulnerable? Yet he's in a fight for his life now for his Senate seat in Arizona-recent polls have shown him in a flat footed tie. He has the Master Persauder in large part to thank for this.

"McCain on tape: Trump damages my reelection hopes."

'If Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket,' the senator says in a recording obtained by POLITICO, 'this may be the race of my life.'

"Publicly, John McCain insists Donald Trump will have a negligible effect on his campaign for reelection. But behind closed doors at a fundraiser in Arizona last month, the Republican senator and two-time presidential hopeful offered a far more dire assessment to his supporters."

“If Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket, here in Arizona, with over 30 percent of the vote being the Hispanic vote, no doubt that this may be the race of my life,” McCain said, according to a recording of the event obtained by POLITICO. “If you listen or watch Hispanic media in the state and in the country, you will see that it is all anti-Trump. The Hispanic community is roused and angry in a way that I've never seen in 30 years.”

"The 2008 GOP presidential nominee is certainly the favorite in his race to win a sixth term in the Senate. But his remarks about the party’s presumptive nominee expose a deep well of concern about how Trump might damage the GOP’s chances in the battle for Senate control — especially in states like Arizona, Nevada and Florida, where Latinos make up a big chunk of voters. Republicans are defending two dozen seats this year, many in blue and purple states, vs. just 10 for Democrats — a daunting landscape even without Trump atop the ballot.

"McCain has said he’ll support the nominee, and he is in better shape to hold onto his seat than many of his vulnerable Republican colleagues. But if Trump’s nomination turns out to be more than a minor drag on down-ballot Republicans, McCain — who’s expected to face Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, a credible Democratic challenger — could easily become a top target. One of his former top aides, Mark Salter, has already said he will support Hillary Clinton for president."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/trump-latinos-mccain-222810#ixzz47nAjNTyp

Oh yeah. Mark Salter. That's reason #760 I'm a Trump Democrat.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/05/republicans-for-hillary-unite.html