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Sunday, May 22, 2016

No Trump is not Running Neck and Neck With Hillary

As usual, the Beltway fails to grasp what being objective or neutral means. They are selling the false meme that Trump is tied or slightly ahead by cherrypicking the few polls that show Trump leading.

Harry Enten:

"BTW for those keeping count, Clinton has led in 12 polls since Trump clinched the nom. Trump has led in 3 of them."

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/734428410311790592

The Beltway never gets what being neutral actually means. It doesn't mean saying the race is neck and neck even when it isn't.

"Being neutral and reporting this race is a 50-50 horse race is not the same thing. Just a reminder."

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/734487445933199360

If Trump ever pulls ahead we will tell you - but this race is NOT neck and neck right now. I argue reporting a horse race is NOT neutral."

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/734487721918468096

"A big key right now is that the Bernie voters have not accepted Hillary wins yet-the Hillary supporters were at this point in 2008, which is why there were polls that showed Hillary do better against McCain than Obama."

"Great breakdown by the NBC/WSJ poll here (Clinton +3 overall). Lots of Sanders holdouts from Clinton right now."

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/734424698151403520

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/734447756085854208

Remember the media:

1. Wants a horse race.

2. Has it in for Hillary anyway.

3. Has it in for the Democrats with the Beltway 'both sides do it' mantra even though that's not true.

To make things 'fair' in their sense it will always mean being more critical of Hillary and the Dems, because fair means treat both sides equally even though they're not equal.

The DailyNewsBin:

"Cable news doesn’t necessarily care who wins the 2016 election. It’s nothing personal. Cable news isn’t playing favorites. It’s just that if they admit Hillary Clinton is on track to win, people will stop fearing Donald Trump and they’ll change the channel. Here’s the cable news five point plan for scaring you into believing Trump is likely to win, so you’ll stay glued to your television in horror for the next six months, thus boosting ratings:"

– Only report the national polls that say Trump is competitive, while ignoring the national polls that say Hillary is safely ahead.

– Keep falsely claiming that Trump and Hillary have “equally bad” favorability ratings, while never admitting that Hillary’s rating is seven points higher.

– Use outlier polls to make it look like Trump is competitive in the swing states of Florida and Ohio, without admitting that Hillary would still win the election handily even if she did somehow lose those two states."

– Make no mention that most polls say Hillary is competitive in traditionally republican states like Georgia and Arizona, or that every statistical model has her on track to win an electoral college landslide."

– Keep talking about a “divided democratic party” while ignoring that Hillary has the support of far more democrats than Trump has republicans. Keep paying up a “contested democratic convention” even though there will be no such thing. Never report the polls that suggest as many as one-fourth of registered republicans will vote for Hillary."

"So how do these false narratives impact the election? That’s not entirely clear. On the one hand, those who favor Hillary Clinton may be scared into making sure they show up and vote for her. On the other hand, moderates and undecideds like a winner, and often tend to vote for whomever they believe is going to win. So those two things may cancel each other out."

"It’s also never been clear that cable news impacts the results; for instance it pretended Hillary was losing the primary race the entire time, yet she still won in a multimillion vote blowout. Cable news also spent the latter stages of the 2016 general election pretending Mitt Romney was ahead while ignoring that most polls actually had President Obama ahead, yet Obama won by a safe margin. So the bigger impact of the fictional reporting of cable news may be on the national political discussion we end up having for the next six months."

http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/the-cable-news-five-point-plan-for/24868/

That's an astute point that most indies and moderates tend to be front runners or what I call 'fair weather friends.' The moment the tone of the media changes so does their sentiment.

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