He says that Trump could win but 'I wouldn't bet on it.'
I wouldn't bet on it either. But this is the leading voice in today's GOP talking.
Though I do have to acknowledge the futures now are giving Trump an almost 30 percent chance of being the nominee.
https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html
This may well lead to some bedwetting but it shouldn't. First of all panic is never a productive strategy. Secondly, the betting markets can be wrong.
After Wisconsin they dropped Trump's chances of winning the GOP primary from 70 percent to 45 percent. There is the tendency to overreact to the ebbs and flows.
Trump is likely peaking right now as he is clearly going to be the GOP nominee where at least officially the Democratic race is not over yet-though in truth it was over on March 15.
When it officially is over in June watch for her to get a bounce. Most of the Bernie supporters who currently say they won't vote for her or will even vote for Trump will come around.
Remember 2008 at this time when Hilary did better than Obama vs. McCain in many polls. That was because of holdouts among Hillary supporters.
Even now according to the NBC poll that showed just a 3 point race also show that 83 percent of Democrats are already supporting Hillary in the general compared to 86% of Republicans for Trump.
So she should get her own bounce in June.
Meanwhile Paul Ryan still won't fully embrace Trump. In the last post I talked about how we can't allow Trump to be normalized as Hillary said yesterday.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/05/the-medias-complicity-in-normalizing.html
It seems that Ryan himself is reluctant to do so:
Ryan: Trump could win, but I’m not ‘betting’ on it
Sitting down for a lengthy interview, a relaxed but adamant Ryan talks up 'unity' — but still wants the nominee to clean up his act.
"Paul Ryan loves the word “unity,” but his definition of that term differs sharply from Donald Trump’s vision of a smiling speaker at his side, mouth shut and domesticated — just like Chris Christie."
"Ryan, who made peace with Trump earlier this month but remains wait-and-see on the question of whether to endorse the presumptive GOP nominee, sees his 2016 job as ensuring that the party doesn’t become a Cult of Trump — he wants to replace id with ideas."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/off-message-paul-ryan-trump-could-win-223458#ixzz49UyUJChM
Actually Trump has some policy advisers who want to cut Social Security which is not what Trump said in the GOP primary but is what Ryan wants to hear.
https://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/05/but-at-least-donald-trump-wont-cut.html?showComment=1463419162337#c6201741043827131680
Ryan's trouble with Trump is basically twofold.
1. He worries about Trump's ideological fealty to some unpopular GOP ideas like cutting SS and tax cuts for the rich. Trump has come some way there. He's embracing SS cuts and gun free zones everywhere-except Trump tower.
2. But let's face it. Ryan knows perfectly well that Trump's blatantly white nationalist campaign will do lasting damage to the GOP brand Ryan wants.
A lot of GOPers who are supporting Trump now, will be permanently damaged goods in the future.
Ryan is smart not to embrace Trump too much.
On the other hand, the more Trump embraces unpopular supply side libertarian ideas, the better for Democrats.
A win-win.
I wouldn't bet on it either. But this is the leading voice in today's GOP talking.
Though I do have to acknowledge the futures now are giving Trump an almost 30 percent chance of being the nominee.
https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html
This may well lead to some bedwetting but it shouldn't. First of all panic is never a productive strategy. Secondly, the betting markets can be wrong.
After Wisconsin they dropped Trump's chances of winning the GOP primary from 70 percent to 45 percent. There is the tendency to overreact to the ebbs and flows.
Trump is likely peaking right now as he is clearly going to be the GOP nominee where at least officially the Democratic race is not over yet-though in truth it was over on March 15.
When it officially is over in June watch for her to get a bounce. Most of the Bernie supporters who currently say they won't vote for her or will even vote for Trump will come around.
Remember 2008 at this time when Hilary did better than Obama vs. McCain in many polls. That was because of holdouts among Hillary supporters.
Even now according to the NBC poll that showed just a 3 point race also show that 83 percent of Democrats are already supporting Hillary in the general compared to 86% of Republicans for Trump.
So she should get her own bounce in June.
Meanwhile Paul Ryan still won't fully embrace Trump. In the last post I talked about how we can't allow Trump to be normalized as Hillary said yesterday.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/05/the-medias-complicity-in-normalizing.html
It seems that Ryan himself is reluctant to do so:
Ryan: Trump could win, but I’m not ‘betting’ on it
Sitting down for a lengthy interview, a relaxed but adamant Ryan talks up 'unity' — but still wants the nominee to clean up his act.
"Paul Ryan loves the word “unity,” but his definition of that term differs sharply from Donald Trump’s vision of a smiling speaker at his side, mouth shut and domesticated — just like Chris Christie."
"Ryan, who made peace with Trump earlier this month but remains wait-and-see on the question of whether to endorse the presumptive GOP nominee, sees his 2016 job as ensuring that the party doesn’t become a Cult of Trump — he wants to replace id with ideas."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/off-message-paul-ryan-trump-could-win-223458#ixzz49UyUJChM
Actually Trump has some policy advisers who want to cut Social Security which is not what Trump said in the GOP primary but is what Ryan wants to hear.
https://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/05/but-at-least-donald-trump-wont-cut.html?showComment=1463419162337#c6201741043827131680
Ryan's trouble with Trump is basically twofold.
1. He worries about Trump's ideological fealty to some unpopular GOP ideas like cutting SS and tax cuts for the rich. Trump has come some way there. He's embracing SS cuts and gun free zones everywhere-except Trump tower.
2. But let's face it. Ryan knows perfectly well that Trump's blatantly white nationalist campaign will do lasting damage to the GOP brand Ryan wants.
A lot of GOPers who are supporting Trump now, will be permanently damaged goods in the future.
Ryan is smart not to embrace Trump too much.
On the other hand, the more Trump embraces unpopular supply side libertarian ideas, the better for Democrats.
A win-win.
I saw my niece and sister-in-law yesterday: they saw Ryan in the capital building on a tour they took there last month. From afar... they didn't talk to him.
ReplyDeleteMy niece said she was concerned about how our government works before the tour, but after witnessing congress in action live, now she's really worried! Lol
Rubin brings up Ryan, and writes yet another all around good post:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/05/23/reluctant-pro-trump-republicans-are-kidding-themselves/