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Monday, May 30, 2016

Assume Donald Trump Means Just What He Says

Some argue that Trump will be a hard opponent to beat as he constantly shifts his positoins and says himself that this is all negotiable. 

Maybe. But do you really want to take that risk? Can we afford to take the risk that it was all just a joke? I mean what are the percentages that he meant it vs. that it was all just a joke?

One thing I can believe already is that he would be a big setback in terms of discrimination policies as he's already vowed that his Vice President will be a white male. so clearly he believes in affirmative action in reverse. 

Does he really plan to ban Muslims or deport 12 million people or let Japan and South Korea obtain nuclear weapons? 

How much if it worth to you to find out? When you do a risk-reward analysis what is the risk vs. the reward? 

There's something called the Upton Window and even if he doesn't do exactly the worse things he's said about immigrants and Muslims, there is a lot he could do short of that which would be very bad but would seem reasonable compared to it. 

After all, his GOP opponents never ruled out his Muslim ban so much as promised to not go so far. For instance Jeb just wanted to ban Muslim refugees from Syria rather than all of them. 

While we don't know how much Trump means or doesn't mean I think it's certainly safer to assume he means everything he says. To assume otherwise seems to me like jumping off the Trump Tower and trusting that Trump will catch me before I hit the ground. Possible but not a great bet. 

Meanwhile, just the threat of Trump's mass deportations are having a chilling effect. 

"DREAMers face nightmare of Trump’s deportation force."

"Undocumented immigrants eager to seek relief under Obama’s executive actions could expose themselves to Trump’s mass deportation plan."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/immigration-trump-deportations-dreamers-223658#ixzz4A9qa63Jo

Just remember what it means when pundits breezily proclaim 'Trump could win.' This is what undocumented immigrants have to factor in too.

So does he mean it? They don't have the luxury of presuming he really doesn't.

Beyond this what Trump is proposing is not unprecedented. He talked about Operation Wetback in the 1950s under Ike.

He talked about FDR's Japanese internment camps. This stuff has a history.

It's easy to forget that Trump's proposals today are basically what US immigration policy was for almost 40 years until civil rights and LBJ's Great Society-part of which was immigration reform whereby the nation became open to large scale nonwhite immigration.

P.S. Off topic I've been reading a lot about LBJ and RFK-Bobby Kennedy-and their feud which defined the Democrats in the 1960s.

I think there's something to what LBJ said in his fight with RFK on the best way to help poor people particularly people of color.

LBJ said of RFK's preference for community action: 'That's not government policy, that's social work and it doesn't help hungry children eat or learn to read.'

https://www.amazon.com/Mutual-Contempt-Johnson-Kennedy-Defined-ebook/dp/B008CNZZKM?ie=UTF8&btkr=1&redirect=true&ref_=dp-kindle-redirect

On the other hand many Black activists seem to favor community action. But even if it has a part to play I'm skeptical that it can just replace government action.

Paul Ryan has recently gotten interested in things like relieving poverty and race, and, of course, his focus is more in line with RFK.

The enemy for Ryan and all conservatives remains LBJ.

However, many of the things that we most take for granted as social goods we have LBJ to thank for.


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