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Monday, May 2, 2016

Hillary Leads Bernie by 19 Points in New California Poll

Not good news considering that Bernie is putting all his chips in California. He's cut staff and moved his spending to California. Meanwhile Hillary is not spending anywhere now.

Yet a new poll has her up there 57-38.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/surveyusa-kabc-scng-24427

That would give her almost a 10 point average lead starting with the polling in April.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html#polls

This might suggest some coalescence around Hillary now with her big wins in the Northeast. In Indiana tomorrow she has lead in every single poll despite this being a state Bernie hoped to do well in. Maybe the polling is wrong but so far every single one has her ahead which is itself surprising.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/in/indiana_democratic_presidential_primary-5807.html

Let's be clear: the race is over. Bernie is still trying to sell his supporters on some sort of Immaculate Path to Victory but I suspect this is just to keep them sending money as in April the donations fell off considerably-as they can see he's losing.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/05/bernie-needs-to-stop-lying-to-himself.html

The one last argument he is trying is that he's a better general election opponent than Hillary based on not very meaningful general election polls.

But what we've seen now that it's clear she's going to be the nominee is some coalescing. In Ohio-a very important swing state as if you simply give Hillary every state every Democratic Presidential candidate since 1992 has won then all she needs to get above 270 is Ohio-the numbers show them doing about the same in general election matchups.

While Hillary trails even John Kasich by just 2 points, Bernie trails by 10 now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

National poll numbers between Hillary and Bernie aren't too meaningful at this point, but after some showed a tie or close to it, she seems to be pulling away in those a little more now too.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

In truth, no matter what these numbers say, the true measure of her strength is the primary contests where she has 56 percent of the vote to just 43 for Bernie.


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