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Saturday, May 7, 2016

Berners Keep Reaching New Lows

This is what you get when you mix arrogant self-righteousness with sour grapes. Bernie is losing badly so somehow the process has not been fair.

What has been very unpleasant to see is the Berners trying to harass Clinton supporters at her rallies. What is their problem? When have Democrats protested Democrats before? The answer is obvious-the Bernie is not a Democrat, just someone who led a failed coup against the party.

Here the Berners yell at a little boy and make him cry:

"Man offering freehugs comforts crying child being yelled at by protesters at Clinton rally ."

https://twitter.com/SAConScene/status/728388122304598016

Give credit to the nice man who showed real empathy in giving the little guy a hug.

Don't get me wrong. I hestiate to write about Bernie at all as I don't want to falsely flatter him and his Berners. This race is over. But this was particularly egregious and is another reason-#888-why I'm so glad my party did not fall for this preening moral prig.

West Virginia on Tuesday. The demographics favor Bernie. Benchmark politics has him winning 57-43.

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/728813987526119425

Interestingly the Alan Abramowitz model has Hillary winning 50 percent of the West Virginia vote.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/forecast-model-beats-the-polls/

We'll see if he or BM is closer.  When I mentioned Abramowitz to BM he-there is another partner-got pretty cagey.

I guess its competition over models. BM has done well though he wants to claim they've been the best. Maybe, though I suspect this depends on how you grade things.

I do think the model has done well. But he acts like he's unimpressed by Abramowitz. He argues there is not a large enough sample to rate him.

He also points out that Abramowitz had some bad misses in March. True, which maybe pulls his overall average down. But he has been on the money the recent primaries.

He was just 5 points total off in the five races on April 26 for Hillary's final percentage. While in Indiana all the polling showed  her ahead and BM had her winning by a hair, Abramowitz had her right at 47 percent, right on the nose. What he anticipated was the high level of independents in the Indiana primary.

If there is a difference between his and BM's model it may be that he eschews polls. BM factors in polls-they are 25 percent of the model.

Here, of course, we're hoping Abramowitz is right. He also has her winning Kentucky handily with 55 percent of the vote-because he projects 84 percent of voters will be Democrats-and he has her a lot closer than you'd imagine in Oregon with 46 percent of the vote.

Whatever. At the end of the day, few of these states are worth many delegates. The last big remaining hauls are New Jersey and California. A recent poll has her up 28 in New Jersey and another has her up by 19 in California.

But all this gives Bernie way too much dignity. No matter what happens from here on out, this is over.

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