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Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Federal Reserve Plan to Raise Interest Rates is Political

     Right now it's all about China in the markets. It rocked the world yesterday when it devalued sharply.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/11/yuan-move-angers-asia-fed.html

    However, now that China is going to be supporting the yuan-after devaluing it-futures are of their lows.

    I've said before there's no downside to Trump's campaign.

    http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/07/there-is-no-down-side-to-donald-trump.html?showComment=1437617911189#c1603983887098755989

    Last night Trump was again lashing out about China.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/11/presidential-candidate-trump-china-devaluation-will-devastate-us.html

   His campaign is many things and there is a light of consternation from some clueles media folks that he doesn't give specifics-but one thing it isn't is a typical conservative campaign.

   Indeed, many of the criticisms he has of GOPers are actually from the left-like he criticizes the plan to privatize Medicare and Social Security.

    His lead issue of course is going after Mexico and China. This is not at all the garden variety free trade dogma that the conservatives normally believe in these days. To the contrary he believes that China is stealing our jobs-along with Mexican immigrants. In this he's reminiscent of Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot.

   So what is China up to with the yuan anyway?

   "However, sources told the Journal that following further precipitous declines in the yuan on Wednesday, the Peoples Bank of China then told state-owned banks to sell dollars on its behalf in the last 15 minutes of Wednesday's trading, causing the yuan to jump about 1 percent against the greenback."

   "China is probably going to need to be on both sides of the currency market for a while, former Pimco chief economist Paul McCulley told CNBC's "Squawk Box" in an interview, reacting to the news."

  "This is not a just one-off 2 percent devaluation, it is part of a mosaic of trying to have the currency be a more global-orientated currency," he said. "They want to move to a more market-determined exchange rate."

 "Markets can't figure it out immediately," McCulley added. "There is no text book you can pull off the shelf," calling this a real-time learning experience.

  http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/12/china-intervenes-to-support-yuan-wsj.html

  The Fed has been determined to raise rates not for any actual reason but for Zizekan reasons 'just because.' In the Fed's mind it's 'abnormal' to be at ZIRP for so long and that's that.

  Neofisherians have had reason for cheer.

  http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/07/neo-fisherism-rbcs-brilliant-trojan.html

  However, might this change things? Are we in Brave New World of 'easing wars?'

  http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/11/yuan-move-angers-asia-fed.html

  If so, we Americans are losing it as the dollar has fallen against every other currency

 "Tuesday's move could also see the Federal Reserve shelve plans for rate-liftoff in September, according to some investors."

 "The yuan and the U.S. dollar were the only two strengthening currencies left amid recent global monetary easing but now that China is finally easing across the board, the greenback is the only one left, explained Jim Rickards, chief global strategist at West Shore Funds."

"Today's yuan move now means the U.S. will support all the deflation in the world. Everybody's trying to get inflation via easing, which means they are exporting deflation to the stronger currency."

"Continued dollar strength is problematic for the Fed since it hurts U.S. exports, lowers inflation and dampens corporate profits. Because raising interest rates will likely only further push up the dollar, the central bank is in a key dilemma. As of Monday, the likelihood of a rate hike in September was 54 percent, according to the CME FedWatch tool."

"Now, even a small increase in rates in September could have a magnified effect on the value of the U.S. dollar, we'll have to wait and see what the Fed does," said John Carey, portfolio manager at Pioneer Investments."

So will the Fed break free of the NFers?

   

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