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Saturday, June 11, 2016

Since 1976, Trump Underperformed the Real Estate Market by 57%

Which is kind of important as his whole pitch to be President is elect him, he's a great businessman who will make the country rich like he made himself very rich.

"Donald Trump is the outperformer in most Republican presidential polls going into Super Tuesday, but he may be an underperformer in real estate after 40 years of dealmaking. Would he be a better president than property manager?"

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-donald-trump-left-13-billion-on-table-2016-03-01?link=sfmw_tw

"The very question is problematic as the only reason to even give him a shot as President is based on the premise that he was a superlative property manager. If he was substandard in his own business, how do we have the confidence to think he'll do better as President? It's not clear why we'd take that risk. "

“Mr. Trump has underperformed the real estate market by approximately $13.2 billion, or 57%,” since 1976, says John Griffin, a finance professor at the University of Texas, who compared Trump’s stated net worth with four decades of returns on the FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITS FNER, -0.41% Index."

Underperformed by 57 percent. Yet it's even worse than it sounds. The 57 percent estimate is based on the assumption that he has $10 billion dollars.

"Starting with Trump’s professed net worth of “more than $200 million” in an interview published by The New York Times in November 1976, Griffin says the FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITS Index-compounded return would have returned $23.2 billon at the end of 2015, “considerably above Mr. Trump’s recent self-reported net worth of approximately $10 billion.”
"Until recently he actually was saying he has $5 billion. Now with more stories asking how much he really asks-his refusal to release his tax returns only multiplying the questions-his defense seems to be to double the amount of money he claims to have."

If we were basing it on his old false claim of wealth-$5 billion, he underperforms even more.

In fact according to Mark Cuban he may have just $165 million which makes his underperformance much worse.

8 comments:

  1. Mike, this sentence contradicts your title:

    “Mr. Trump has underperformed the real estate market by approximately $13.2 billion, or 57%,”

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  2. O/T: Mike, one of my favorite youtube channels these days is the Rubin Report hosted by Dave Rubin. He interviews a lot of interesting people. One of the interviews I really like is with a guy named Jonathan Haidt, who's a professor of social psychology (or something like that) at a business school. I've seen other interviews with Haidt, and I have to say I'm a fan. Politically he's a former center leftist, who now describes himself as a centrist. David Rubin describes himself as left of center, but they both agree on being anti "illiberal." Hadt is a critic of what he calls "illiberalism" on both the right and left. Anyway, they both talk about Trump in this interview (I've fast forwarded to the place they talk about Trump and Clinton and the election):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNI0_oW-TcE

    One of the themes that Haidt brings up is the idea of sacredness, and how finding something that's sacred both "binds and blinds" a group of people.

    He's very critical of what you'd probably call "emoprogs" on college campuses. Rubin's more general name for that kind of thing is "regressive leftists" but I like Haidt's description of "illiberal" much better. Illiberal can be used for both right and left wingers.

    Neither Rubin or Haidt are Trump fans, and while neither are extreme Hillary cheerleaders they made a case for why she's really the best choice.

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  3. Mike, I hate to be a stickler, but I don't think there's an "f" in "Underperformed." =)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tom, there is if it's underfuckingperformed! :)

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. Here's treat-Nanute left a comment.

      He liked it so much he left it twice

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    4. Don't know how that happened. Fulfilled my quota for a month

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